Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova between Russia and the West
The three countries over the past five years have benefitted from increased trade with the EU, without however strengthening the rule of law to boost investments and lift them out of economic stagnation. The elites remain unwilling or unable to break vested interests, despite the pressure exercised by the Western actors, and partly because of Russian attempts to counterbalance or undermine pro-Western forces, argues Henrik Larsen in this CSS Analysis.
Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova are the most important countries between Russia and the West in a geopolitical competition that has intensified since the annexation of Crimea in 2014 with large-scale military exercises and heated diplomatic incidents. China, by contrast to the Western Balkans, does not play a significant geopolitical role in the region. Russia seeks to maintain a sphere of interests with Moscow-friendly governments in power, while the West seek to win countries over by encouraging them to undertake deep and comprehensive reform. The competition over the three countries plays out as Western efforts to strengthen their resilience and Russian attempts to undermine their aspirations toward prosperity, functioning democracy and closer association with the West.