Focus Ukraine
Russia attacked Ukraine. Here we update you with media and other contributions and background analyses by CSS researchers on the current situation.
Recent and Past Contributions
12.09.2024
Learning from the Ukrainian Battlefield: Tomorrow’s Drone Warfare, Today’s Innovation Challenge
Russia’s war in Ukraine has undoubtedly become the single most important conflict for understanding how drone warfare may take shape in the future. This research report identifies nine key takeaways based upon a comprehensive analysis of combat-proven practices from the Ukrainian battlefield. These lessons cover technology, doctrine, and policy alike. The report’s four chapters examine the main opportunities for improving drone capabilities across functions and operational domains. They also highlight the persistent challenges accompanying the development, integration, and deployment of new uncrewed systems. Importantly, however, drones are not a panacea for achieving strategic victories or winning wars.
04.09.2024
Ceasefire Monitoring and Verification and the Use of Technology: Insights from Ukraine 2014–2022
The aim of this book is to review the use of technology in monitoring and verifying ceasefires, drawing on the Ukraine experience between 2014 and 24 February 2022. It explores the question of how technology can be used to improve the monitoring of conflicts and the verification of whether parties are adhering to their agreements.
27.07.2024
Ukraine's IT army is a 'world first' in cyberwarfare — but it's a major gamble for the government, experts say
Stefan Soesanto, Senior Researcher at the Center for Security Studies, spoke to Cameron Manley about the Ukrainian IT army for Business Insider.
25.07.2024
The Ukrainian Way of Digital Warfighting Volunteers, Applications, and Intelligence Sharing Platforms
The Ukrainian military situational awareness platform Delta (Дельта) is at the heart of this CSS report. Initially developed in 2015 by Aerorozvidka, the platform is currently owned, maintained, and upgraded under the auspices of the Center for Innovation and Development of Defense Technologies within the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense. Starting from the war in Donbas in 2014 to the Russian invasion in 2022, the origin and evolution of Delta provide a near perfect case study to trace the development of digital warfare thinking in Ukraine. For this CSS cyber defense report, Delta serves as the red thread to introduce to the reader a host of digital platforms, mobile applications, and Ukrainian volunteer groups that helped to shape Delta. As the war in Ukraine has entered its third year, the story of Delta provides a window into Ukraine’s miltech revolution. This report provides analysts, researchers, and policymakers with a comprehensive understanding as to (1) what opportunities and stumbling blocks volunteer groups had to overcome in their bottom-up push for change, (2) why and how Aerorozvidka pushed for the adoption of a concept known as ‘network-centric warfare’, and (3) how Russia has reacted to Ukraine’s digital warfighting efforts.
03.06.2024
Ukraine zielt auf die «Augen» Russlands
The Ukrainian military destroyed dozens of Russian radar systems last month. As a military expert, Mauro Gilli analyzes what this means for the front line in the SRF News report.
24.04.2024
"The West and Russia's War of Aggression against Ukraine"
This issue covers the Western reaction to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. It starts with a critical comment by James Sherr questioning the West’s response and resolve. Robert Orttung then goes on to look at the internal struggle about support for Ukraine in US politics, focusing on the foreign policy stance of the Republican Party. In another case study Stefan Meister presents a critical assessment of Germany’s policies in support of Ukraine in the European context. Finally, graphs detail allocated support for Ukraine and public opinion about the response of national governments.
17.04.2024
"Impact of Russia’s War on Ukrainian Agriculture"
The topic of this issue is Impact of Russia’s War on Ukrainian Agriculture. Oleg Nivievskyi and Roman Neyter make an interim assessment of the financial consequences of the war-related damages and losses in Ukrainian agriculture; Alexander Mkrtchian and Daniel Müller used Sentinel-2 satellite imagery to estimate the extent of abandoned croplands on both sides of the front line after the onset of war. A section with export statistics rounds off the issue.
09.04.2024
"Kyber Sprotyv: Ukraine’s Spec Ops in Cyberspace?"
In their article, Stefan Soesanto and Wiktoria Gajos analyze the activities of Kyber Sprotyv, a cyber group possibly coordinated by the Ukrainian government, during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Since February 2023, the group has been known for cyberattacks against Russian military personnel and has contributed significantly to Ukrainian information warfare. The links to national resistance organizations and information networks show a complex interplay between non-state and state actors. Soesanto and Gajos examine the implications of these activities for modern conflicts, the legal ambiguities and state accountability in the cyber domain.
27.03.2024
"The Altered Nuclear Order in the Wake of the Russia-Ukraine War"
This text discusses the wide-ranging implications of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on the global nuclear order. It highlights how Russia's actions, including leveraging its nuclear arsenal and suspending or deratifying key arms control treaties like the New START and CTBT, have impacted global perceptions and strategies regarding nuclear arms. The text underscores the increasing relevance of alternative approaches to traditional arms control, such as the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) and risk reduction measures. The authors argue that these approaches may offer viable solutions to reducing nuclear dangers and preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons.
20.03.2024
"Critical Infrastructure Resilience in Ukraine: Energy, Transportation, and Communication"
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the subsequent targeted attacks on critical infrastructure (CI) have put the country and its population under immense pressure. However, Russian interference with Ukrainian CI did not begin in 2022 but goes back at least as far as 2014 and the events surrounding the annexation of Crimea. In the aftermath of 2014, various political and legislative processes related to the protection of CI were initiated or accelerated in Ukraine, culminating, for example, in the first comprehensive legislation on the protection of CI, which came into force in November 2021.
02.03.2024
"Smoke, Mirrors, and Self-Attribution: Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Service in Cyberspace"
This article examines the unprecedented shift towards public self-attribution of cyber operations by Ukraine's military intelligence service, GURMO, from November 2023 to February 2024. Breaking away from the norm of state actors' secrecy, GURMO openly claimed responsibility for cyberattacks against Russian targets, a stark contrast to previous practices where such actions were neither confirmed nor denied. Through the analysis of eight news items, the study explores the motivations, credibility, and effectiveness of GURMO's claims, including the acknowledgment of operations by pro-Ukrainian hacktivist groups. The investigation raises questions about the strategic implications of this approach, its impact on public and enemy perceptions, and the role of media in disseminating these claims. This shift indicates a new dimension in cyber warfare, where self-attribution serves as a tool for psychological and informational impact, marking a significant evolution in the conduct of cyber operations.
01.03.2024
"Russia's Role in the South Caucasus and Central Asia"
This issue examines Azerbaijan’s and Uzbekistan’s evolving relationship with Russia amidst significant geopolitical changes: Rail Safiyev explores Azerbaijan’s strategic maneuvering in the wake of its military success in Karabakh, highlighting its balancing act between ties with the West and maintaining good relations with Russia against the backdrop of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Firdavs Kobilov shifts the focus to Uzbekistan, analyzing the impact of the leadership transition following the death of Islam Karimov and the election of Shavkat Mirziyoyev as president, as well as the impact of Russia’s war against Ukraine on Uzbek-Russian relations.
24.02.2024
"Western Sanctions and Russia’s Role for Global Energy"
This issue deals with Western Sanctions and Russia’s Role for Global Energy. Nina Poussenkova explores the impact of Western sanctions on the Russian oil sector since February 24, 2022; Irina Mironova provides an overview of the current situation in the Russian natural gas sector; finally, Martin Jirušek assesses the stability and security of the EU’s gas supply portfolio after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the EU’s subsequent focus on diversifying away from Russian energy supplies.
02.02.2024
"The Challenges of Wartime Polling in Ukraine"
At the core of every conflict lies a paradox: political elites claim to be acting on behalf of the people, but violence means that measuring public opinion is incredibly challenging. This is evident today in Ukraine. Given the challenges posed by Russia’s war in Ukraine, how reliable are wartime polls?
20.12.2023
"Taking Russia to Court"
This issue focuses on legal options for holding Russia accountable for crimes committed in Ukraine. In the first analysis, Gleb Bogush summarizes investigations and possible legal options, such as a special international tribunal to prosecute Russian crimes. In the second analysis, Monika Nalepa and Thomas Remington show how transitional justice principles could be used in post-war Russia with a view to restoring relations with the West.
20.12.2023
"Impact of the Russian War against Ukraine on Georgia"
The topic of this issue is the Impact of Russia’s War against Ukraine on Georgia. Firstly, Tatia Chikhladze and Shota Shiukashvili examine new pro-Russian disinformation narratives promoted since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022; secondly, Natia Seskuria analyses security, political and economic implications of the influx of Russians in Georgia, as well potential short and long-term implications of controversial decisions such as allowing the restoration of flights to Russia and keeping liberal visa regulations for Russian citizens; lastly, Tatia Tavkhelidze offers a perspective on how the government of Georgia responded to this new historical opportunity.
18.12.2023
"Russian Occupation in Ukraine"
This issue examines Russian occupation in Ukraine. It starts with a contribution by Natalia Savelyeva on Russia’s role in Eastern Ukraine from 2014 to 2021. Next the contributions by Yana Lysenko and Fabian Burkhardt examine Russia’s pressure on the local population, focusing on the system of filtration and the forced naturalization of Ukrainians. This part includes an appendix with statistical data and a list of reports on war crimes and human rights violations. Finally the contributions by David Lewis and Anna Veronika Wendland look at the economic dimension of Russian occupation and the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
18.12.2023
"Perceptions of Russia’s War in the Global South"
This issue looks at the perception of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine in the Global South. Jochen Kleinschmidt analyses possible reasons for the rather Russia-friendly attitude of political elites in Latin America. Artem Miniailo provides an overview of Russian disinformation campaigns in Africa and Rashid Gabdulhakov compares Russian disinformation in Kyrgyzstan and Germany. Finally, Chelsea Nguyen comments on the challenges for Ukrainian attempts to build support for its position in the Global South, on the examples of Indonesia and Vietnam. The issue also presents selected results of a global public opinion survey on perceptions of Russia.
08.12.2023
"Russia and the global food supply"
The topic of this issue is Russia and the Global Food Supply. Stephen K. Wegren and Susanne Wengle, in their respective contributions, analyze the consequences of the termination of the grain deal in the Black Sea; Linde Götz, Thomas Herzfeld, Miranda Svanidze, and Stanislav Yugay note that risks determining Russia’s wheat export have risen; Stephen Crowley posits Russia must tread a narrow path to avoid prolonged stagnation; Tinoush Jamali Jaghdani and Mehdi Ketabchy highlight the strategic significance of the Volga River system for Russian commerce, logistics, and security; Friedrich Asschenfeldt assesses the causes of Russia’s dwindling food power under Soviet rule.
26.11.2023
"ETH Treffpunkt Science City: Cyber-Krieg am Beispiel der Ukraine"
Modern warfare is digital warfare. Clearview, an AI facial recognition system, is actively used by the Ukrainian government. It can be used to extend border controls, identify casualties and support the hunt for Russian spies inside the country. Much of this information is fed directly into the so-called Delta System. This is a cloud-based military information platform. It is a kind of Google Maps with troop movements, logistics units and many other tactical objects. Constant updating makes it possible to track all of this in real time, argues Stefan Soesanto in his presentation at ETH Science City.
22.11.2023
"Ukraine’s Counter-Hybrid Campaigns in Cyberspace"
In reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the Ukrainian government stood up a variety of digital services and volunteer groups to counter Russia’s aggression in and through cyberspace. This paper by guest author Stefan Soesanto, Senior Researcher at the Center for Security Studies (CSS) at ETH Zurich, focuses on two Ukrainian hybrid warfare creations and their activities within the period from February 2022 to July 2023: The IT Army of Ukraine (IT-армія України) which are conducting DDoS and destructive cyber operations in and through the cyber domain, and the Internet Force of Ukraine (Інтернет Війська України) who are active on the information warfare front.
18.10.2023
"Ukrainian Studies in Social Sciences"
This issue presents commentaries on "Ukrainian Studies in Social Sciences" in the context of Russia's large-scale war of aggression. After an introduction by Gwendolyn Sasse, the Science at Risk Emergency Office provides an assessment of the war's consequences for Ukrainian science. Contributions by Yulia Kurnyshova, Inna Melnykovska and Artem Zakharchenko describe the war’s impact of the war on subfields: International Relations, Comparative Politics, Media and Communication Studies. The issue concludes with contributions by Tamara Martsenyuk, a team of authors organised by Vox Ukraine, and Roman Horbyk on failures of Ukrainian Studies that have become apparent now.
18.10.2023
"The Wagner Group-A Preliminary Update"
This edition focuses on the Wagner Group private military company, providing an update to our issue 290 on the same topic. This issue focuses on developments after the Wagner mutiny. First, Stephen Aris summarizes the context of the mutiny and its aftermath, then Andreas Heinemann-Grüder goes on to examine Wagner’s role in Russia’s political regime and the state’s attempts to regain control. Moreover, Niklas Masuhr examines Russia’s post-Prigozhin Footprint in Africa and Kimberly Marten looks at Russian Foreign Paramilitary Outfits beyond Wagner.
17.10.2023
"Drones have boots: Learning from Russia’s war in Ukraine"
Before Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, security studies scholars were myopic about small drones’ enabling functions and tactical benefits. They were preoccupied with drone impacts on international security and the ethical dimensions of counterterrorism drone strikes. Similarly, literature on the revolution in military affairs has examined emerging drone technologies based on their strategic advantages. “Low-tech” drone innovations have received less attention. The war has highlighted the collective magnitude of these omissions. At first, scholars followed extant predictions by concluding that large drones did not revolutionize warfare, proliferated slowly, and were too costly and complex to operate. Yet, one year into the war, thousands of drones—scouts, loitering grenades, drone bomblets, and suicide drones—are defying the field’s assumptions of their uselessness sans air superiority. Contrary to most theoretical expectations, small drones in Ukraine are changing battlefield dynamics from lower airspace. Scholars must begin to study drone diversity in modern wars.
13.10.2023
"Opposition of Russian Society to the War"
The topic of this issue is Opposition of Russian Society to the War: Firstly, Dmitrii Zhikharevich and Daria Savchenko draw on the sociology of scientific knowledge to analyze Russians’ preference for first-hand, factual knowledge; secondly, Irina Meyer-Olimpieva posits that Russian civil society persists and continues to develop at the grassroots level; lastly, Alexandra Arkhipova and Yuri Lapshin provide an overview of the context of ideology, censorship, and repression in Russia and describe the types of messages presented by the pieces included in the online exhibition „No Wobble – Russian anonymous street art against war”.
25.09.2023
external page "Zivilisten mit Smartphones können im Krieg entscheidend sein"
Starlink satellites help the Ukrainian army to track, in real-time, how Russia prepares its attacks. So, how is Elon Musk influencing the course of the war? CSS Researcher Stefan Soesanto weighs in on the given question in this interview with Zeit Online.
24.09.2023
external page Strikes on Crimea a 'longer term project' of Ukraine
In this interview, CSS Researcher Niklas Masuhr talks to German news outlet Deutsche Welle to discuss the Ukranian strikes on Crimea. He says that they are to be considered a longer term project.
15.09.2023
external page Mit Autoreifen will Moskau seine Bomber schützen – so improvisiert sich Russland durch den Krieg
Improvisation is part of everyday warfare, explains CSS Researcher Niklas Masuhr in this article for the Swiss newspaper NZZ. Soldiers can influence warfare with their ideas - but not all tinkering leads to success.
28.08.2023
external page «Die übertriebene Angst vor dem Cyberkrieg hat Russland in die Hände gespielt»
Computers are not designed to kill people. That's why cyberattacks have not played a decisive role in the Ukraine war. However, they have one big advantage: uncertainty. In this interview, CSS' Lennart Maschmeyer explains how the impact of cyber operations in the Ukraine war is often overestimated.
25.08.2023
external page Nukleare Abschreckung muss neu gedacht werden
Today, nuclear arms control is dead as a doornail. Yet it is at least as important as the fight against climate change. In this guest commentary, CSS Head of Think Tank Oliver Thränert discusses current nuclear arms control and how it needs to be rethought in light of China's ever-increasing influence, on the one hand, and ever-increasing technological complexity, on the other.
21.08.2023
external page Kampfjets für die Ukraine - «Die Eskalationsfrage hängt auch von politischen Faktoren ab»
Denmark plans to supply Ukraine with 19 F-16 fighter jets from the US, while the Netherlands has not yet communicated an exact number. Ukrainian President Volodimir Selensky spoke of 62 F-16s that Ukraine is bound to receive. In this interview with Echo der Zeit, CSS' Niklas Masuhr explains the importance of Western aircraft for Ukraine.
04.08.2023
RAD 299: Ideological and Conspiratorial Underpinnings of Russia's War Against Ukraine
This issue deals with the ideological and conspiratorial underpinnings of Russia’s war against Ukraine. Using data from the Survey of Russian Elites 1993-2020, Sharon Rivera highlights attitudinal similarities and differences between Putin and the broader elite. Julian Waller illustrates the comprehensive use of illiberal rhetoric by the Russian elite. Scott Radnitz explains the role conspiratorial propaganda has played in the war, highlighting the Kremlin’s aims of persuasion, signaling, and confusion. And Daria Khlevnyuk discusses the alignment between conspiracy theories about the dissolution of the USSR among the “old left” and Russian state propaganda.
12.07.2023
external page Russia to Ban iPhone Use by Government Employees
After a suspected US intelligence campaign exploited vulnerabilities in iPhones, Russia is considering a ban of its use by government employees. This ban is only the latest of a multitude of initiated Russian measures against Western tech devices. According to CSS' Stefan Soesanto, such measures should be seen as the Russian government's admission of fears that foreign states could access sensitive data, which is a matter of national security. In the short run, he argues, these measures are best viewed as pre-emptive and defensive. In the long run, however, they can favor the Russian government in that Russian-made apps couldgain market share. Nevertheless, Soesanto adds, no authoritarian or democratic government has been able to pull that stunt off yet.
03.07.2023
external page Analysen im Nebel des Krieges
What can unbiased expertise do - and not do - in a challenging situation like the Ukraine war? CSS' Niklas Masuhr and Marcel Berni from the Military Academy at ETH Zurich explore this question in this guest commentary for the Frankfurter Allgemeine. The two experts take a critical view of the reporting on the Ukraine war. In fact, no far-reaching conclusions should be drawn from individual pieces of information. (in German)
23.06.2023
external page Chinese Firm Sent Large Shipments of Gunpowder to Russian Munitions Factory
Last year, undisclosed transports between a Chinese state-owned company and a Russian munitions factory have emerged, triggering fresh inquiries into Beijing's involvement in Russia's conflict with Ukraine. The shipments of smokeless powder, despite being labeled as intended for the assembly of hunting cartridges in the customs documentation, have no direct connection to the Ukrainian war. Nonetheless, although such cartridges could theoretically serve hunting purposes, their usage for that intent was infrequent and, in this case, these cartridges are of military nature, asserts CSS’ Brian Carlson in this New York Times article.
16.06.2023
external page As well as fighting Russia, Ukrainians are battling corruption at home
The Ukrainian people are engaged in a two-front battle, striving to defend their sovereignty against Russian aggression while also fighting against systemic corruption and the influence of oligarchs in their government and society. In light of the two-day Ukraine Recovery Conference, which begins in London tomorrow, there is growing concern about what will happen to the funds allocated for recovery purposes. In this article by The Guardian, CSS' Henrik Larsen and other experts share their views.
14.06.2023
external page Russische Angriffe auf Schweizer Websites von der Stadt Basel bis zu den SBB: Es geht um Propaganda
Attacks on websites of Swiss institutions are increasing. In recent weeks, web services of public institutions have been paralyzed throughout Switzerland. The pro-Russian hacker group NoName057(16) has claimed responsibility for the attacks. In this NZZ article, CSS' Stefan Soesanto classifies the attacks and provides contextual information on the hacker group. (in German)
26.05.2023
external page Wunderwaffen und Wirklichkeit: Russlands Cyberkrieg gegen die Ukraine
For years, Ukraine has been (and still is) the target of a Russian hybrid cyberwarfare. However, a closer look at the Russian operations reveals a limited strategic impact. Therefore, in this APuZ article, CSS' Lennart Maschmeyer explains how Russia's cyber "wonder weapons" do not have a decisive impact in reality. Rather, traditional military means are more effective. (in German)
11.05.2023
external page Vor der Frühjahrsoffensive: So graben sich die Russen ein
By building military obstacles along the front, Russia has already been preparing for a Ukrainian spring offensive for months. Whether these can be breached by the Ukrainian forces is difficult to determine at this stage, CSS' Niklas Masuhr explains in this Tages-Anzeiger article. (in German)
08.05.2023
external page Gegenoffensive der Ukraine: Wo sind die Schwachstellen der russischen Armee?
Russia is taking pre-emptive measures in relation to a Ukrainian counteroffensive. Strongholds along the front have been erected since December to defend against enemy fire. According to CSS' Niklas Masuhr, this creates a degree of predictability that structures future operations, which mitigates Russia's weaknesses, as the Ukrainian army usually performs better in improvised and changing military situations. (in German)
06.05.2023
external page Militäranalyst sieht Kiew bei Offensive geografisch im Vorteil
Unlike Russia, Ukraine has a geographical advantage and can advance and cover ground in different locations. Contrarily, Russia must adhere to the confines of the occupied territories. However, expectations should not be inflated since Russia has built up fortifications on the front lines, CSS' Niklas Masuhr is quoted in this Spiegel article in relation to a potential Ukrainian military counteroffensive. (in German)
27.04.2023
external page Russische Spionage in der Nord- und Ostsee: Wie anfällig sind die Offshore-Windparks für Sabotage?
According to an investigation by Nordic TV stations, Russian research vessels have been used to spy on wind farms. This brings underwater infrastructure into military focus. As CSS' Mauro Gilli explains to NZZ, underwater maps can be used to identify possible points of attack for acts of sabotage. Defending such infrastructure is proving to be very difficult, despite sonic navigation. (in German)
01.04.2023
external page Why Is Russia Stationing Tactical Nuclear Weapons in Belarus?
CSS' Stephen Herzog appeared on Strait Talk on TRT World to comment on how Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus might affect European security.
27.03.2023
CSS' Stephen Herzog was asked by The Insider to explain the threats posed by Putin's decision to construct a storage facility for tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. According to him, it will be important to track how this arrangement develops and what level of autonomy or control Belarus will have over these deployments. For the moment, however, this action is just another example of Moscow ratcheting up tensions to intimidate NATO.
22.03.2023
In the wake of Xi's state visit to Moscow, it is becoming clear what dynamics are shaping Russian-Chinese relations. Speaking to Blick, CSS' Brian G. Carlson emphasizes Russia's dependence on China, which allows Beijing to make a number of demands on Moscow. However, China is also dependent on Russia - at least politically. (in German)
19.03.2023
external page What flew over the United States?
After an immense high-altitude balloon drifted over the United States and was shot down in the end of January, several other mysterious smaller aerial objects were detected in US airspace. According to CSS' Mauro Gilli, this happened because the US air defense network changed filtering functions in its radar to see whether there were other balloons up in the sky that had got undetected. This led to many more 'false alarms', he tells the Tribune.
17.03.2023
external page NATO Should Offer Ukraine an Arms Supply Pact
No matter how Russia’s ongoing offensive and Ukraine’s expected counteroffensive go, Ukraine’s survival hinges on lasting military support from NATO allies. To stiffen their commitment, the allies should consider formalizing an arms supply pact with Kyiv, argues CSS' Henrik Larsen in this Defense One article.
16.03.2023
Studie «Sicherheit 2023»: Bericht zur Medienkonferenz vom 16. März 2023
Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the future of Switzerland and the world has been viewed more pessimistically and neutrality more critically. The willingness to cooperate is increasing: a slight majority of the Swiss population calls for a rapprochement with NATO. Voters also want to strengthen the defense capability. This is shown by the evaluations of the annual survey "Sicherheit", which is a joint publication by the Military Academy at ETH Zurich and the CSS that evaluates long-term public opinion tendencies and trends on foreign, security and defense policy issues in Switzerland. The survey will be published in June 2023. (in German)
12.03.2023
external page The War in Ukraine Shows the Game-Changing Effect of Drones Depends on the Game
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to the first large-scale, high intensity war where both sides have extensively deployed military and commercial drones. What the conflict has so far highlighted is that the frequently mentioned “game-changing effect” of drones on warfare depends on the game, argues CSS' Dominika Kunertova in this article for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
09.03.2023
external page Heftiger Raketenbeschuss in der Ukraine
Russia has more resources, more soldiers and more war material. Is time therefore on Putin's side in the Ukraine war? Not necessarily, CSS head of think tank Oliver Thränert tells SRF Tagesschau. With regard to the factor of time, he talks about domestic unrest, the effect of sanctions on the Russian economy and the West's military support for Ukraine. (in German)
07.03.2023
external page Baut China gerade neue Reaktoren, um Plutonium für Atombomben zu produzieren?
China is investing heavily in nuclear technology. On the international stage, however, Beijing presents itself as a responsible actor, fearing nuclear proliferation in Asia, especially in Japan. Thus, the Chinese are simultaneously trying to expand their nuclear arsenal and downplay the discussion about its utility, CSS head of think tank Oliver Thränert tells NZZ. (in German)
06.03.2023
external page Ukraine-Krieg: Kiew will Bachmut nicht aufgeben
The city of Bakhmut is on the verge of falling. However, according to CSS' Niklas Masuhr, it is unlikely that Russian troops will succeed in breaking through the Ukrainian defense lines behind the city and penetrate deep into Ukrainian territory. For Ukraine, only when more is known about death tolls will it become clear whether the deployment of resources and reserves in Bakhmut was worthwhile, he tells SRF Tagesschau. (in German)
03.03.2023
external page Russia Bombards Ukraine with Cyberattacks, but the Impact Appears Limited
A unique element of the war in Ukraine has been the volunteer cyber forces, including both an amateur, unsophisticated group that coordinates over Telegram, the IT Army, as well a more professional, organized, volunteer cyber army. CSS' Stefan Soesanto has studied both groups in detail and talks to National Public Radio about the consequences for the participating volunteers and how these cyber forces could function as a model for other countries.
26.02.2023
external page Verhilft die digitale Kriegsführung der Ukraine gar zum Sieg?
One year after the start of the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine, it is clear that the Russians are having a hard time using modern digital information tools in the war. The Ukrainians, on the other hand, are using a wide variety of digital technologies to reconnoiter and fight the invaders. Assessments by CSS' Stefan Soesanto vis-à-vis SRF 4 News aktuell. (in German)
23.02.2023
external page Die Invasion der Ukraine nach einem Jahr – Ein militärischer Rück- und Ausblick
In this issue of Länder-Analysen, CSS' Niklas Masuhr examines the changing course of the war in Ukraine since February 2022, placing the respective military outcomes and patterns in context. (in German)
external page Ein Jahr Krieg in der Ukraine
What are the weaknesses of the Russian army? How likely is an escalation and what could it look like? How safe is Europe still? And which scenarios are possible for an end of the war? CSS head of think tank Oliver Thränert provides answers in this SRF News spezial program. (in German)
14.02.2023
external page Ukraine: Einfluss der russischen Privatarmee Wagner
The mercenary troop Wagner fights in the war in Ukraine where the Russian army cannot advance any further, explains CSS' Niklas Masuhr to SRF 10 vor 10. He also talks about the structure of the troop, its function in the war and the Kremlin's attitude towards it. (in German)
06.02.2023
external page Pallone sgonfiato
The suspected Chinese spy balloons shot down by the U.S. are fueling mistrust between the two world powers. In this Rete Uno Modem episode, CSS' Mauro Gilli and other experts discuss whether this is a temporary crisis or whether we are at the beginning of a new delicate confrontation. (in Italian)
external page Schicksalsschlacht oder Symbolik? Die blutige Schlacht um Bachmut
If Russia seizes Bachmut, the front would shift further to the west and the major city of Kramatorsk could become the next target of the Russian attack, CSS' Niklas Masuhr tells SRF News. Depending on casualties, the Ukrainians could then also be forced to send reserves that are still in training to the front. What fundamentally matters now is which side has more momentum in this war, he said. (in German)
03.02.2023
external page La Cina: "Non è un pallone spia"
Is the Chinese balloon that appeared in U.S. airspace a deliberate provocation or did it really just go off course? Is there a political message behind it? And would such a spy balloon even have a strategic advantage over satellites? CSS' Mauro Gilli talks to RSI telegiornale about spy balloons and the tense climate between Washington and Beijing. (in Italian)
external page Russland steht in Bachmut kurz vor dem ersten Sieg seit Monaten
Maps show how the eastern Ukrainian town of Bachmut, which has become a symbol of Ukrainian resistance, is encircled by Russian troops. CSS' Niklas Masuhr explains to Tages-Anzeiger what a seizure could mean for the further course of the war. (in German)
external page «Auch Leopard 2 und Abrams sind zerstörbar»
With the delivery of Western battle tanks to Ukraine, the question arises as to whether this could influence the course of the war in favor of the Ukrainian army. In an interview with the Tages-Anzeiger, CSS' Niklas Masuhr assesses the situation. (in German)
01.02.2023
No. 318: Russia’s Footprint in Africa
Moscow’s presence on the African continent increased in the years preceding its invasion of Ukraine. Now, this presence is intimately linked to the war and to the resultant political and economic struggle, argue Charlotte Hirsbrunner and Niklas Masuhr in this CSS Analysis.
external page Versagt die nukleare Abschreckung?
Putin could resort to nuclear weapons in Ukraine war. In this article for Der Pragmaticus, CSS' Alexander Bollfrass reflects on the effectiveness of nuclear deterrence and how Ukraine's allies might respond in an emergency situation. (in German)
external page Niklas Masuhr on the Wagner Group Activities
In this episode of the War in Ukraine: Update from Kyiv Podcast, CSS' Niklas Masuhr discusses the activities of the Wagner group, its role in the Ukraine war and the implications for the Russian domestic context. Additionally, he compares Russian and Chinese Private Military Company (PMC) activity.
external page How Russia’s War Strengthens the West
In this Danish Politica article, CSS' Henrik Larsen outlines three key areas of Western adaptation to Russia’s war against Ukraine with advice for how to optimize them going forward. (in Danish)
27.01.2023
external page «I Leopard avranno un impatto, ma non bisogna illudersi»
After mounting pressure on the German government, Berlin has now announced that it will deliver the highly coveted Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine. CSS' Mauro Gilli explains to tio.ch what impact this decision could have on the further course of the conflict. (in Italian)
26.01.2023
external page Nach Panzerlieferungen: "Waffensysteme nachproduzieren"
Since the end of the Cold War, Europe's military industry has been downsized on a large scale, CSS' Niklas Masuhr tells WDR 5 Morgenecho. Countries should now manufacture their own supplies and not just rely on non-EU countries. (in German)
25.01.2023
external page Welche Bedeutung hat der Kampfpanzer-Entscheid?
German Leopard and American Abrams battle tanks will now be delivered to Ukraine anyway. What is the significance of these decisions apart from the political signal? What does that mean in military terms? And will fighter jets, warships and submarines now follow, as demanded by the Ukrainian foreign minister? CSS' Niklas Masuhr provides answers in the SRF Tagesgespräch. (in German)
external page Leopard 2 für die Ukraine: "Sinnvoll, mit kleiner Zahl anzufangen"
The delivery of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine is an important step in view of the current war situation, says CSS' Niklas Masuhr in an interview with the German Tagesschau. But the logistical challenges are enormous - they concern training, delivery and repair, he says. (in German)
external page Militärexperte sieht Russland gestärkt - Panzer für Ukraine wichtig
According to CSS' Niklas Masuhr, Russia has overcome a phase of weakness in the war against Ukraine. He tells Handelsblatt that we are heading for a conflict situation in which battle tanks play an important role in terms of defense and counteroffensives. (in German)
16.01.2023
How is the Russian arsenal composed? CSS' Niklas Masuhr tells Le Temps that Russia is using high-precision weapons to attack strategically important targets while spreading terror among the population with old, cheap and less accurate missiles. However, he says, the use of such Soviet weapons is not a sign that Russia is running out of the semiconductor chips needed for the production of high-precision weapons, and thus that the sanctions are effective. (in French)
12.01.2023
external page ETH-Militäranalyst: Leopard 2 eine sinnvolle Wahl
The West has several different battle tanks. Why is the German Leopard 2 in the spotlight and not the British Challenger 2 or the French Leclerc? CSS' Niklas Masuhr explains to SRF News why this tank is the most suitable option for Ukraine. (in German)
06.01.2023
external page Schützenpanzer für die Ukraine
In this episode of SRF 10 vor 10, CSS' Niklas Masuhr talks about the importance of the promises made by the USA, France and Germany to supply armored personnel carriers and reconnaissance tanks to Ukraine for attack purposes. (from minute 6:19) (in German)
05.01.2023
external page Beware of Wrong Lessons From Unsophisticated Russia
How do we prevent, deter, and - if necessary - fight the next conflict? For Foreign Policy, CSS' Mauro Gilli extrapolates trends in technological warfare capabilities and identifies four important implications of these dynamics for a future conflict scenario.
03.01.2023
external page «Es ist nicht im Interesse der EU, die Ukraine auf Jahrzehnte zu subventionieren»
How can the EU initiate necessary reforms in post-war Ukraine? And what role do the country's citizens play in this? Find out more in this NZZ interview with CSS' Henrik Larsen, who previously served as a political advisor to the EU delegation in Ukraine. (in German)
16.12.2022
external page Adapting NATO to Great-Power Competition
In his article in The Washington Quarterly, CSS’ Henrik Larsen talks about NATO's potentials and pitfalls and how the Europeans should muster the main defense against Russia.
12.12.2022
external page Which Kind of Realism Should Drive Western Support for Ukraine?
This CEPS Explainer written by CSS' Henrik Larsen highlights several qualitative insights about the war in Ukraine derived from classical realism, which seem more relevant to the conduct of Western foreign policy than those formulated by 'neorealists' who prefer a negotiated end to the Russia-Ukraine war . His insights make a convincing case for continuing and perhaps increasing the military support to enable Ukraine to liberate further territory.
11.12.2022
external page L’Ukraine demande l’aide de la Suisse pour protéger et réparer son réseau électrique
The blocking of Swiss ammunition which can be used to equip German Gepard tanks in Ukraine is criticized from different sides. CSS' Niklas Masuhr explains to Le Temps what use these Gepard tanks have in war. (in French)
07.12.2022
No. 316: Russia’s Future as an Energy Power
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has far-reaching consequences for the global energy system and for Russia itself. Sanctions and fewer Russian natural gas deliveries to Europe have disturbed the balance between supply and demand in the fossil energy market. Whereas Europe has alternatives to Russian energy, these developments are threatening Russia’s status as a global commodities power, argues Jeronim Perović in this CSS Analysis.
06.12.2022
The Ukraine Drone Effect on European Militaries
The war in Ukraine is the first large-scale, high-intensity military conflict in which both sides deploy different types of drones extensively and to different military effects. European countries should take note to adopt a holistic approach on drones and anti-drone defenses, argues Dominika Kunertova in this CSS Policy Perspective.
01.12.2022
In this part of the Bulletin, Amos Dossi and Sophie-Charlotte Fischer deal with the possible implications of the Ukraine war for Swiss cooperation strategies in the field of security and defense. While Switzerland has been building a close-knit and institutionally firmly anchored network of multilateral relationships in the field of European internal security policy since the 1990s, it has limited its cooperation on defense policy to the military-political working level, relying primarily on bilateral and minilateral formats. This model worked well for a long time; However, the changed security situation and adjustments by partner countries suggest further development and diversification. Against this background and based on CSS internal analyses as well as external expert opinions, Dossi and Fischer outline concrete options for action. (in German)
30.11.2022
external page Lessons From Russia’s Cyber-War in Ukraine
Sophisticated cyber attacks require huge preparation, including painstaking reconnaissance of target networks. The Economist mentions CSS' Lennart Maschmeyer's paper analyzing the Russian attacks on Ukraine's power grid in 2015 and 2016. Besides the lengthy preparation, launching such attacks also reveals to an enemy the tools (i.e, code) and infrastructure (servers) being used, resulting in attrition of their effectiveness.
24.11.2022
Minsk’s Signals: Belarus and the War in Ukraine
Russian troops have launched attacks on Ukraine from Belarus. The Lukashenka regime is Putin’s closest ally, but their interests diverge. It is thus key to differentiate and read the erratic actions and rhetoric from Minsk as signals towards east, West, and south, argues Benno Zogg in this CSS Policy Perspective.
21.11.2022
The Nuclear Reality is Unsettling
Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, CSS' Stephen Herzog and other CSS researchers find themselves explaining nuclear realities to the media and public. In this ETH Zukunftsblog, Herzog writes about his research on nuclear weapons, suggestions for better control and their eventual elimination.
11.11.2022
external page EU Proposes a United Cyber Defense Front Following Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
The European Commission proposed a new cyber security policy to ensure member states can coordinate their digital defenses in the wake of Russia’s war on Ukraine. For The Record, CSS' Max Smeets assesses current trends in EU cyber policy regarding operational cooperation, defense and offense.
07.11.2022
external page Should Ukraine’s Government Be Prepared to Countenance Peace Talks With Russia?
Different voices in the US have requested that Ukraine should signal they are open for peace negotiations with Russia. What has been happening behind the scenes between Washington and Kiev? How complicated is the position of the Biden administration on the issue of support to Ukraine? And how likely is it that the war will end through peace talks? CSS' Benno Zogg answers these and other questions in this Monocle 24 The Briefing episode.
04.11.2022
The China Factor in Russia’s War in Ukraine
China appears to have growing concerns about Russia’s war in Ukraine. Although China is not prepared to abandon its partnership with Russia, Western leaders should aim to ensure that China’s support for Russia remains limited. They should also seek China’s support in dissuading Russia from using nuclear weapons, argues Brian G. Carlson in this CSS Policy Perspective.
03.11.2022
Wie sich die Schweiz auf eine mögliche nukleare Eskalation vorbereitet
Switzerland is comparatively well prepared for a nuclear escalation, but even the legendary Swiss bunkers are not enough in the event of a large-scale nuclear war. CSS' Stephen Herzog assesses for SWI swissinfo which scenarios would be conceivable and how Switzerland's infrastructure is equipped for an actual emergency. (in German)
02.11.2022
No. 314: Ukraine’s Uncertain Path to the EU
Solidarity with Ukraine in surviving a war of aggression must be accompanied by realism about the country’s ability to draw closer to EU membership. The sustainability of the accession process depends on straightforwardness about the hurdles posed by the Russian aggression and the domestic reform inertia, argues Henrik Larsen in this CSS Analysis.
No. 313: Norms vs. Realities: Cyber at the UN
In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, cyber norms discussions at the UN have reached an impasse. Tensions between the US and Russia have stalled substantive progress, particularly on issues of cyber conduct during armed conflict. Yet, the continued existence of the UN working groups is a small but positive sign for the future, as is the growth of norm discussion venues beyond the UN, argues Taylor Grossman in this CSS Analysis.
31.10.2022
external page Die Schweiz ringt mit ihrer Neutralität
Switzerland has a long tradition of neutrality. Now Germany demands the rare ammunition for Gepard tanks delivered to Ukraine. In an interview with Badische Zeitung, CSS' Benno Zogg assesses how Switzerland's position is being put to the test. (in German)
29.10.2022
external page Facing and Being Russia in a Wargame: Did the Players Blow Off the World?
Imagine that you are in a wargame simulation and you play Russia. This is what happened to CSS' Alexander Bollfrass. What were the main conclusions? Did the players eventually blow off the world with nuclear weapons? Listen to the conversation about his experiences in this The Global Agora episode.
24.10.2022
external page Wie die «schmutzige Bombe» in Putins Kalkül passt
Is Moscow ready to detonate a "dirty bomb" in Ukraine - and then blame it on Kiev? Or is it all about fear-mongering? CSS' Stephen Herzog explains to blue News that conventional weapons would be more effective from a military strategy point of view and that the use of "dirty bombs" would have mainly psychological effects. (in German)
21.10.2022
external page Zeitenwende überall? Nicht in Deutschland
After the war in Ukraine began, Germany announced that it would assume more responsibility for European security. But the rearmament hoped for by the allies and Germany's strategic vision have so far failed to meet expectations. The mistakes it made with Russia could therefore easily be repeated with China. Australia reacted quickly and decisively to China's increasing aggressiveness with a new security strategy. Berlin should admit its misperceptions about pacifism, Russia and energy in order to fulfill its strategic role, says CSS' Alexander Bollfrass in his article for Der Pragmaticus. (in German)
external page Quanto è reale la minaccia nucleare della Russia?
How real is Russia's nuclear threat? Putin has repeatedly threatened the use of the nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Biden says that Moscow is not joking. CSS' Stephen Herzog provides an analysis in this "Il mondo là fuori" podcast by RSI News. (in Italian)
20.10.2022
external page Will Russia resort to nuclear weapons in Ukraine?
Will Russia resort to nuclear weapons in Ukraine? Answers in this The Global Gambit podcast with Nicole Grajewski, Harvard Belfer Centre, and CSS’ Stephen Herzog and Alexander Bollfrass.
19.10.2022
external page Ukraine War: About Drones and Other Military Systems and How to Use Them
Why did Russia choose to use Iranian drones? How does loitering munition even function and what is its effective impact on the battlefield? Is there any difference in how these systems are used from the defender's point of view to the attacker's? CSS' Mauro Gilli provides answers to these and other questions in this episode of The Global Agora.
external page Russland setzt auf Kamikaze-Drohnen aus Iran
Russia is again increasingly bombing Ukraine from the air. So-called kamikaze drones, which were manufactured in Iran, are also being used. CSS' Dominika Kunertova explains for SRF Echo der Zeit what these weapons are and what they are capable of doing in Ukraine. (in German)
17.10.2022
external page Fading or Staying? China’s International Standing After the UkraineInvasion
Russia’s war in Ukraine holds important implications for China’s international standing. China’s rivalry with the United States, which has intensified in recent years, was already set to become the defining feature of the international system in the coming decades. The war in Ukraine, however, is likely to have a major impact on how this rivalry develops. It could have the effect of accelerating the onset of bipolarity and the consolidation of two rival blocs, with the United States and its allies and partners on one side and China on the other, with Russia as its main partner, argues CSS’ Brian G. Carlson in his chapter of this ISPI report.
external page «Avec sa cyberarmée de volontaires, l’Ukraine a créé un monstre»
How effective were the latest attacks by the so-called IT Army of Ukraine on Russian infrastructures? How is the group structured and where do the participants come from? CSS' Stefan Soesanto answers these and other questions in an interview with Le Temps. (in French)
15.10.2022
external page «Russland setzt iranische Drohnen ein, um den ukrainischen Widerstand zu brechen»
Russia uses Iranian drones to break up Ukrainian resistance. CSS' Dominika Kunertova explains whether the Iranian drones will be a "game changer" of the war and why they are difficult to fend off. (in German)
external page How the West is preparing for Putin to go nuclear
Western countries are making contingency plans to deal with chaos at home in case of nuclear war in Ukraine, officials said, as the threat of a battlefield strike by President Putin grew. In an interview with The Times, CSS’ Stephen Herzog talks about nuclear risks.
13.10.2022
external page Beyond Nuclear Deterrence
Academics have generally accepted nuclear deterrence as an eternal fact of life, but Russian President Putin's nuclear threats during the war in Ukraine have illuminated the necessity of new research programs into novel thinking beyond nuclear deterrence. In the editorial for the current issue of Science, CSS’ Stephen Herzog argues that a new wave of social and natural scientific research is urgently needed to understand conditions for making global nuclear disarmament desirable and feasible.
external page ‘Russia is becoming weaker, and China stronger’
All eyes may be on the war in Ukraine, but it is far from the only country in Eurasia currently affected by armed conflict. In his interview for Swissinfo, CSS’ Benno Zogg reflects on conflicts across the post-Soviet space and the declining role of Russia. (available in English, German, French, Chinese, Arabic, Russian, and Italian)
10.10.2022
external page «Putin hat nicht mehr viele Hebel»
For the first time in months, Russia attacks Kiev and other major cities in Ukraine. CSS' Niklas Masuhr analyzes the attacks for Handelszeitung. (in German)
07.10.2022
external page «Putin braucht Atomwaffen als Schild»
How likely is it that Putin will actually use nuclear weapons after recent threats? What does he want to achieve with such threats? How well equipped is the Russian nuclear arsenal anyway? And what scenarios for the use of nuclear weapons are thinkable? CSS' Stephen Herzog answers these and other questions in an interview with Schaffhauser Nachrichten. (in German)
06.10.2022
external page Die wichtigsten Antworten zur nuklearen Bedrohung
Putin threatens with nuclear weapons. But what exactly is stored in nuclear arsenals around the world? CSS' Alexander Bollfrass and Stephen Herzog explain the difference between tactical and strategic nuclear weapons to SRF News. (in German)
05.10.2022
No. 312: Russia as a Nuclear Power
Against the backdrop of its invasion of Ukraine, Russia continues to modernize its nuclear forces. Nuclear weapons remain a central part of Moscow’s strategic arsenal, including as tools of coercion. While arms control initiatives are critical to mitigate the dangers associated with nuclear weapons, a credible nuclear deterrent on the part of NATO remains a prerequisite for their success, argues Oliver Thränert in this CSS Analysis.
04.10.2022
external page Russlands Drohung mit Atomwaffen
The more President Putin gets on the defensive, the less the once unthinkable can be ruled out, explains CSS' Alexander Bollfrass. In an interview with SRF Tagesschau, he talks about the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons, such as short-range missiles, either targeted at the battlefield in Ukraine or as a threatening strike over the Black Sea. (in German)
external page «Russland könnte versuchen, Kiew zu einer Kapitulation zu zwingen»
Putin threatens again and more drastically with the nuclear bomb. Is this more than fear-mongering? And what would be the consequences of a nuclear attack? Assessments by CSS head of think tank Oliver Thränert in this interview in the Tages-Anzeiger. (in German)
03.10.2022
Switzerland has sharply condemned the Russian aggression, imposed sanctions and supports Ukraine. Yet Switzerland continues to be neutral. Eurointegration spoke to CSS’ Benno Zogg about trends in Swiss neutrality policy and efforts to increase cooperation. (in Ukrainian)
30.09.2022
external page Putin bringt Xi in die Zwickmühle
Despite the "unlimited friendship" that unites China and Russia, the war in Ukraine holds enormous risks for Beijing. CSS' Brian G. Carlson analyzes China's positioning in the conflict in and around Ukraine for Die Weltwoche. (in German)
Central Asia: Challenges Intensify, Geopolitics Doesn’t
Russia’s predominant role in Central Asia is set to decline following its war in Ukraine. This creates both an urgency as well as an opportunity for the Central Asian states to diversify their external ties, argues Chatrina Schumacher in this CSS Blog. Many potential partners seem keen to fill some of the void, but their actual engagement remains limited. The region’s relative stability has priority, which favors the ruling elites’ authoritarianism. Conversely, this may foster instability in the long run.
29.09.2022
external page Bei Nord Stream deutet alles auf Sabotage hin. Welche Möglichkeiten dafür gibt es?
Following the discovery of four leaks at Nord Stream 1 and 2, speculation is growing about the potential perpetrators. According to CSS' Mauro Gilli, there are in principle two ways for such an act of sabotage: from the inside and from the outside. In an interview with NZZ, he explains how the perpetrators could have proceeded. (in German)
28.09.2022
external page Es braucht einen kühlen Kopf gegen Putin
There can only be a reasonably stable peace if Russia fails in Ukraine. According to Eckhard Lübkemeier and CSS head of think tank Oliver Thränert, however, it is crucial how exactly Russia fails. In their Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung article, they describe the balancing act that the West must perform in dealing with the war to avoid an apocalyptic failure. (in German)
27.09.2022
external page Il commento di Mauro Gilli
What are the key problems in the logistics and technical equipment of the Russian army and where do they come from? CSS' Mauro Gilli talks to RSI Radiogiornale about the state of the Russian armed forces. He also assesses whether the partial mobilization will change anything and how the onset of winter will affect the further course of the war. (in Italian)
external page ‘Patriotic Hacking’ Is No Exception
The so-called IT Army of Ukraine acts opposite to the norms like-minded states have pushed for two decades. In this regard, Stefan Soesanto's CSS Cyberdefense Report is quoted in this Lawfare blog classifying the group as "a hybrid construct that is neither civilian nor military, neither public nor private, neither local nor international, and neither lawful nor unlawful".
24.09.2022
external page Een internationaal cyberleger tegen Rusland met een Nederlander in de hoofdrol
CSS' Stefan Soesanto tells de Volkskrant that the so-called IT Army of Ukraine, in which volunteers from all over the world participate in the war under the protection of the Ukrainian government, is a dangerous precedent. However, the real effect of the IT Army is mainly psychological. (in Dutch)
21.09.2022
external page FOKUS: Studiogespräch mit Benno Zogg
What effect will the partial mobilization of the Russian army have? How should the Ukrainian army behave now to take advantage of the momentum? What do the pseudo-votes in the occupied territories mean? And how should Putin's threat of using nuclear weapons be interpreted? CSS' Benno Zogg talks to SRF 10 vor 10 about the latest developments of the war in Ukraine. (in German)
external page Cyber Conflict and the Erosion of Trust
Cyberattacks have been characterized as major tools in modern warfighting, but have often failed to have major physical effects. Instead, cyberattacks have played major roles in degrading trust in societal institutions, argue CSS’ Miguel Alberto Gomez and Ryan Shandler in their blog post for the Council on Foreign Relations.
20.09.2022
external page Pro-Ukraine Hacktivists Claim to Have Hacked Notorious Russian Mercenary Group
The hacktivist group known as the IT Army of Ukraine published a screenshot that showed the group hacked into a website allegedly linked to the notorious Russian mercenary group Wagner. The defaced website also included graphic pictures of dead soldiers. CSS' Stefan Soesanto tells Vice Motherboard that Wagner is a legitimate target and posting pictures of dead Wagner mercenaries online is not a violation of the Geneva Convention.
14.09.2022
external page Russisches Roulette: AKW Saporischja unter Beschuss
How precarious is the situation at the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant? What will happen if the electricity supply for cooling the reactors is permanently cut off? Why is the nuclear power plant a strategically important site and why is the safety zone requested by the IAEA rather wishful thinking? CSS' Alexander Bollfrass discusses these and other questions in an interview with SRF Rundschau. (from minute 29:40) (in German)
12.09.2022
external page Wenn Krieg «normal» wird: Gewöhnung ohne Gleichgültigkeit
The West's handling of the war in Ukraine, its support and willingness to sacrifice will "normalize", argues CSS' Benno Zogg in this NZZ article. What is important is that we remain aware of the dimensions of the conflict. (in German)
09.09.2022
external page Meet Killnet, Russia’s Hacking Patriots Plaguing Europe
The pro-Russian hacker collective by the name of Killnet has been launching a barrage of attacks on Western government networks since the beginning of the war in order to punish them for their anti-Russian sentiment. CSS' Stefan Soesanto analyses the hacktivist group for Politico and compares it to its Ukrainian counterpart, the "IT Army of Ukraine".
When Crises Collide: Energy, Security, Climate Change
Geopolitical instability underpins the short-term energy-saving measures adopted in Europe in preparation for winter. Climate change’s impact on energy insecurity highlights an urgent need to simultaneously integrate longer-term climate mitigation measures, argue Christine Eriksen and Andrin Hauri in this CSS Policy Perspective.
07.09.2022
No. 310: Finland’s NATO Accession
While formerly neutral, Sweden and Finland have jointly decided to join NATO in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Finland’s accession in particular will impact the military balance in the Baltic-Nordic theater of contention between Russia and the alliance. Joining NATO would be the culmination of a longer alignment process for Finland, argue Eemeli Isoaho, Niklas Masuhr and Fabien Merz in this CSS Analysis.
No. 309: NATO’s Strategic Concept: Tempered Ambitions
The Strategic Concept seeks to prepare NATO to deal with the deteriorating security environment over the past decade characterized by Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and the rise of China. Its implementation hinges mainly on the modalities of the alliance’s enhanced deterrence and defense, argues Henrik Larsen in this CSS Analysis.
04.09.2022
external page »Die Russen sind nicht zufrieden«
How effective are drones in the Ukraine war? CSS' Mauro Gilli assesses for Der Spiegel whether drones as offensive weapons have really revolutionized war and how they can be put to use in armed conflicts. (in German)
23.08.2022
external page Coping with Rising Nuclear Fears
Since the day of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, general concern and fears of a nuclear war are on the rise, especially in Europe. Finding ways to address these fears without spreading anxiety or encouraging blind faith in nuclear deterrence will become increasingly challenging as the war continues, argues CSS’ Névine Schepers in her blog post for Inkstick.
16.08.2022
Russia’s Great-Power Moment in Africa
Not even a decade ago, Africa was the last foreign policy priority of Russia. Now, in the face of growing isolation, Russia is once again bidding for the continent’s support. The West looks at such efforts with concern, which could lead to a growing great-power competition and securitization on the continent, explains Charlotte Hirsbrunner in this CSS Blog.
10.08.2022
external page Ukraine-Krieg: «Kann Glück sein, dass beim AKW kein Unfall geschah»
The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant has been under attack for days. Russia and Ukraine, both blame each other. However, as CSS' Stephen Herzog explains to Nau.ch, there is also calculation behind the reckless shootings since the power plant is located in a strategically very important position by the Dnieper river. (in German)
09.08.2022
Although it is contractually entitled to do so under the New Start disarmament agreement, the U.S. is no longer allowed to inspect Moscow's nuclear weapons. CSS head of think tank Oliver Thränert considers the justification that Russian inspectors cannot travel to the U.S. due to the sanctions and that they would be endangered by high Corona case numbers to be a pretext. In an interview with NZZ, he assesses whether the New Start agreement can still be saved or whether global arms control is in immediate danger. (in German)
02.08.2022
external page The War in Ukraine and Global Nuclear Order
Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has neither exposed the international nuclear-governance regime as toothless nor brought it to the verge of collapse. The global nuclear order's history shows its resilience to rogue acts by great powers. In this Survival article, CSS' Alexander K. Bollfrass and Stephen Herzog argue that nuclear targeting, deterrent threats and associated risk-reduction efforts are hardly new phenomena and the main consequence of the war is renewed public awareness of the often unpalatable role nuclear weapons play in international politics.
29.07.2022
external page Die neue nukleare Bedrohung – Was nützt der Atomwaffensperrvertrag?
How much worth is the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)? What can be expected from the UN conference of member states reviewing compliance with the NTP in New York? How does the current threat situation differ from the Cold War? Has the threat of nuclear terrorism been overestimated? CSS head of think tank Oliver Thränert and others discuss these and other questions in an interview with SWR 2 Forum. (in German)
26.07.2022
external page Ist Putin Xi Jinpings „nützlicher Idiot“?
Good relations with China help Putin to pursue his goals. However, Moscow is slipping more and more into the role of China's impoverished junior partner. CSS' Brian Carlson tells Welt that, as the balance of power shifts in China's favor, Russia will be increasingly dependent on China and under increasing pressure to support China's goals. (in German)
21.07.2022
external page Lugano conference: A first step towards Ukraine’s recovery
Ukraine's potential reconstruction will be a "colossal" and decade-long task. In this article for Security and Human Rights Monitor, CSS’ Benno Zogg argues that while the war is still raging, the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Lugano in July was a first step and platform to establish first principles, address fears, and bring all stakeholders together.
external page Switzerland’s wait-and-see approach to nuclear ban treaty is sensible
Switzerland helped negotiate an international treaty that seeks to eliminate all nuclear weapons, but it has not yet signed or ratified it. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its global security implications could further complicate Swiss decision-making on the matter, argues CSS' Stephen Herzog in this SWI swissinfo article.
14.07.2022
external page Russia's Growing Influence in Africa
Over the last decade, Russia has engaged in a concerted campaign to gain influence on the African continent. It does therefore not come as a surprise that many African countries have abstained from voting on Russia's suspension from the UN Human Rights Council and refused to comply with Western sanctions. In this article for the magazine Political Violence At A Glance, CSS' Allard Duursma, Julia Friedrich and CSS' Niklas Masuhr investigate how Russia is able to exert a growing influence in Africa.
Nachbefragung der Studie «Sicherheit 2022» aufgrund des Krieges in der Ukraine
With the war in Ukraine, the Swiss are more pessimistic about the future. The war leads to a more critical view of Swiss neutrality. At the same time, security policy cooperation with NATO or the EU is becoming more popular. In addition, the Swiss want to strengthen Switzerland's defense capabilities. Therefore, a good training and equipment of the army is required. This is shown by the results of the follow-up survey of the “Sicherheit 2022” study, which is published by the Military Academy (MILAK) at ETH Zurich and the CSS. The follow-up survey took place in early June 2022. (in German)
external page Can US-supplied HIMARS be a game changer for Ukraine?
Answering Ukrainian calls for more long-range precision weapons, the US finally said it will send more High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) to Kyiv. But can the new HIMARS turn the battle in the Donbas in Ukraine’s favor? CSS' Niklas Masuhr explains to France 24 that these systems are indeed very relevant in attacking behind Russian lines, pushing back ammunitions’ depots and the Russian architecture for their artillery and air defense networks thus disrupting the Russian logistics chain.
12.07.2022
external page Cyber Operations During the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine: Lessons Learned (so far)
What key lessons can we draw from the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine about the role of cyber operations in military conflict? How do Russian cyber operations differ in wartime compared to peacetime activity? And what cyber activity can we expect in the months ahead? These and other questions were discussed in the workshop organized by the European Cyber Conflict Research Initiative in Tallinn, the results of which are summarized in this report written by Monica Kaminska, James Shires and CSS' Max Smeets.
06.07.2022
No. 308: Geopolitical Dimensions of the Energy Transition
The Russian war of aggression in Ukraine has intensified efforts in Europe to become more independent of Russian fossil fuels. This has given political urgency to ambitions for the development of more renewable energy sources. Access to raw materials outside Europe will be key to this process of energy transition, and it could become a new dimension of geopolitical competition, argues Julian Kamasa in this CSS Analysis.
No. 307: French Defense at a Crossroads
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has resulted in a myriad of new challenges, including for French security and defense policies. Demand for its defense industries is rising. The French armed forces are now more than ever needed since the end of the Cold War to ensure the defense of Europe, argues Constant Despont in this CSS Analysis.
05.07.2022
external page How a nonprofit group has become the biggest repository for hacked Russian data
The war in Ukraine inspired hackers to steal reams of sensitive data from Russia which a non-profit transparency group called Distributed Denial of Secrets collects and publishes. But according to CSS' Stefan Soesanto, this data releases do not have tactical value to Ukrainians on the ground. There might be some documents that potentially are really interesting but it has been to challenging to dig through the dumps, he tells National Public Radio.
02.07.2022
external page Ukraine-Konferenz: Was braucht die Ukraine?
Does Ukraine need a reconstruction conference in the middle of the war? For CSS' Benno Zogg it does, as he explains to SRF Tagesschau. Such a conference can set rough guidelines regarding future reconstruction and is also valuable just by drawing attention to Ukraine. However, concrete measures or sums of money are not to be expected. (in German)
01.07.2022
external page Schlangeninsel wieder in ukrainischer Hand
The Snake Island in the Black Sea was a symbol of Ukrainian resistance at the beginning of the Ukraine war. Now it is back in Ukrainian hands. CSS' Benno Zogg says it is very unlikely that Russia withdrew voluntarily. He also assesses how this withdrawal will affect the security situation in and export opportunities from the region. (in German)
30.06.2022
The expansion of NATO and the new assessment of Russia as a strategic threat does not mean that the military alliance will change its policy of non-interference in the Ukraine war, says CSS head of think tank Oliver Thränert in SWR2 Kultur aktuell. However, the decisions taken at the NATO summit in Madrid to increase the presence of new contingents in the Baltic States, Poland and Romania serve to prevent new Russian plans to attack. (in German)
23.06.2022
In the war in Ukraine, an "IT army" is fighting online against Russia. For CSS' Stefan Soesanto, it represents an innovation in cyber warfare. This NZZ article reports on Soesanto's CSS Cyberdefense Report on the structure, tasking, and ecosystem of the IT army. (in German)
22.06.2022
The IT Army of Ukraine: Structure, Tasking, and Ecosystem
The IT Army of Ukraine was stood up in an ad-hoc manner without a clearly structured and proven plan. Born out of necessity, the IT Army subsequently evolved into a hybrid construct that is neither civilian nor military, neither public nor private, neither local nor international, and neither lawful nor unlawful. This CSS Cyberdefense Report by Stefan Soesanto provides the first-ever comprehensive analysis of the IT Army’s structure, tasking, and ecosystem.
external page „Bester Freund und Kollege“ – Diese Freundschaft kann dem Westen gefährlich werden
CSS' Brian Carlson tells WELT that China is not sending weapons to Russia or helping Moscow circumvent sanctions as it wants to avoid secondary sanctions. In addition, the war in Ukraine is beneficial to China as it distracts the US from focusing on China. (in German)
external page Strategic Shifts and NATO’s new Strategic Concept
In this NATO Defense College article, Andrea Gilli, CSS' Mauro Gilli, Gorana Grgić, Marina Henke, Alexander Lanoszka, Hugo Meijer, Lucrezia Scaglioli, CSS' Nina Silove, Luis Simón and CSS' Max Smeets analyze the systemic shifts occurring in the Alliance's broader strategic landscape and highlights the need for NATO's new strategy to reflect them in full.
09.06.2022
external page Andreas Wenger: «Die Schweizer Neutralität wird neu justiert»
The war in Ukraine has also fundamentally changed the security order in Europe. What does that mean for Switzerland and its self-image as a neutral country? In the SRF Tagesgespräch, CSS director Andreas Wenger puts the current debate on neutrality into perspective. (in German)
08.06.2022
external page Biowaffen-Entwicklung in zivilen Labors – Experte schlägt Alarm
Concerns about a biological weapons attack have become more real since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. Given the lack of effective verification instruments in the Biological Weapons Convention, Switzerland should work with other contracting states to resume negotiations on a verification protocol, says CSS head of think tank Oliver Thränert to 20 Minuten. (in German)
07.06.2022
external page Expertin sagt, wie wichtig Drohnen im laufenden Krieg wirklich sind
Gegenüber watson ordnet CSS Forscherin Dominika Kunertova ein, ob Drohnen im Krieg in der Ukraine eine entscheidende Rolle spielen und vergleicht deren Effektivität mit derjenigen von herkömmlichen Kampfjets. (in German)
06.06.2022
external page Are Hacktivist Data Dumps Helping Ukraine?
Rather than the "world's first cyber war", the hacktivist data dumps in Ukraine can best be described as "cyber chaos", argues CSS' Stefan Soesanto in this The National Interest blog post. Although lots of data and information has been dumped by hacktivists for public consumption, the information it reveals is usually outdated, irrelevant, or unhelpful.
04.06.2022
external page Does Russia create some nuclear weapons exclusively for the TV?
How close are we now to a nuclear incident? Under what circumstances would Russia or the West use nukes? And how does Russian media use atomic weapons as propaganda? CSS' Alexander Bollfrass discusses these and further questions in this The Global Agora podcast episode.
03.06.2022
external page Sicherheits-Forscher Zogg sagt, warum Russland nur noch Drohungen bleiben
CSS' Benno Zogg explains for watson about what he and other analysts were wrong at the beginning of the invasion, talks about the behavior of the West regarding arms deliveries and assesses the effectiveness of sanctions. He also analyzes various scenarios for ending the war and achieving a sustainable peace and concludes that it would be dangerous to simply surrender territory to the aggressor. (in German)
02.06.2022
Russia’s War and the Global Nuclear Order
Russia’s war in Ukraine, conducted behind the shield of nuclear deterrence and the threat of escalation, has increased the salience of nuclear weapons worldwide. It endangers the multilateral norms and processes in place to prevent nuclear proliferation and complicates any near-term prospects for disarmament, argues Névine Schepers in this CSS Policy Perspective.
Sicherheitsordnung nach Moskaus Ukraine-Invasion
Russia cannot be integrated into a cooperative security system in Europe in the foreseeable future. The West must support Ukraine and contain Russia's military might. But Russia remains important for the stability of Europe. The question is what role the country should play in a future post-war order, explains Jeronim Perović in this CSS Policy Perspective. (in German)
The War Against Ukraine Shapes NATO’s Future
The Russian invasion of Ukraine revitalized NATO and marked the return of US leadership in the alliance. However, the coming months may prove more difficult for NATO to navigate due to a series of dilemmas that could endanger its cohesion, argue Dominika Kunertova and Niklas Masuhr in this CSS Policy Perspective.
01.06.2022
Goodbye Cyberwar: Ukraine as Reality Check
Evidence from Ukraine shows that cyber operations are either too slow, too weak, or too volatile to provide significant strategic value in hybrid conflict and war, argue Lennart Maschmeyer and Myriam Dunn Cavelty in this CSS Policy Perspective.
No. 306: NATO’s Adaptation to the Russia Threat
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine requires NATO to eliminate doubt about its ability and resolve to defend its eastern territory by outweighing its current personnel and equipment understrength. Sweden and Finland’s likely accessions add to this effort. NATO’s adaptation will depend on a bigger European responsibility and renewed public discussions about the importance of security and defense, argues Henrik Larsen in this CSS Analysis.
No. 305: Russia’s War in Ukraine: India’s Balancing Act
New Delhi’s refusal to condemn Russia’s war in Ukraine complicates its foreign policy maneuvering. How India positions itself in an increasingly polarized competition for global dominance will become more important. It will continue to leverage conflicting partnerships to secure its own rise, argues Boas Lieberherr in this CSS Analysis.
external page La guerra apre gli occhi o annebbia la vista?
In an interview with the RSI Modem Podcast, CSS' Constant Paul Despont talks about the current state of the Swiss Armed Forces after more than 30 years of peace, what systems Switzerland needs now, and what the increase in the military budget from 0.7 to 1.0% of GDP really means. (in Italian)
31.05.2022
Ceasefire Monitoring and Verification Technology
Ceasefire negotiators, monitors, and verifiers should not ignore advances in technology. What technology can and cannot do, however, has to be carefully assessed in relation to other factors that make or break a ceasefire, argue Alexander Hug and Simon J. A. Mason in this CSS Policy Perspective.
external page Die TV-Frau, die mit «Atomkrieg» Quote macht
TV host Olga Skabeyeva recently said that a "third world war" would soon be necessary. Her show did not shock for the first time, but we can only speculate about the meaning and aim of such provocative remarks, CSS' Benno Zogg tells Tages-Anzeiger. The only thing that is clear, he says, is that Putin aims to scare the Western audience. (in German)
30.05.2022
In an interview with Al Jazeera, CSS' Henrik Larsen talks about the EU's divisions over the oil embargo against Russia and discusses the long-term effectiveness of such sanctions. He argues that it is mainly arms deliveries that are helping Ukraine in the current situation. It is also crucial whether the country will be granted candidate status for potential EU membership at a later date.
25.05.2022
Cyberneutrality: Discouraging Collateral Damage
The “cyberwar” in Ukraine is internationalized and may persist for years. In an effort to urge operational restraint among belligerents, neutral countries should insist on financial compensation for collateral damage from cyberattacks, argues Kevin Kohler in this CSS Policy Perspective.
23.05.2022
external page Why Is Russia Being so Brutal in Ukraine?
Evidence of war crimes committed by the Russian armed forces in Ukraine is surfacing. In this Political Violence At A Glance article, Julia Friedrich and CSS' Niklas Masuhr explain why these atrocities are happening. In essence, these brutalities are part of Putin's strategy that aims to establish control by breaking popular - and ultimately political - will. Frustration, weak leadership and the socio-economic composition of the Russian army are additional factors that explain why Russian soldiers commit such violence.
22.05.2022
external page NATO Must Get Resilience Right to Withstand Russia and China
NATO faces many challenges in the years to come. Russia, of course, is at the top of the list of concerns, but the growing role of China will also shape NATO members’ thinking. In this Lawfare Blog, CSS’ Henrik Larsen assesses how NATO should plan for change in the years to come, focusing not only on how it should change but also on strategic temptations the alliance should avoid.
18.05.2022
external page Doit-on craindre une attaque nucléaire?
Putin is clearly making nuclear threats. Are they real? What does Russia’s arsenal look like? How is the use of nuclear weapons regulated? And what about Switzerland? CSS' Névine Schepers discusses these questions with RTS Le Point J. (in French)
external page Russlands Drohung mit der Bombe und die Optionen des Westens
What role do nuclear weapons play for Russia? How high is the risk of nuclear escalation in Ukraine and beyond? Why have disarmament and arms control been in crisis for years? And what must Germany and the West prepare for in the future? CSS head of think tank Oliver Thränert discusses these and other questions at the event "Fokus Sicherheitspolitik" co-hosted by the Chair for International and Transatlantic Relations at University of Regensburg, the Friedrich-Naumann-Foundation for Freedom and the Thomas-Dehler-Foundation. (in German)
16.05.2022
external page Der Preis der Verteidigung von Freiheit und Demokratie
The talk of a new Cold War is politically dangerous and downplays what Germany must prepare for, argue Eckhard Lübkemeier and CSS head of think tank Oliver Thränert in this Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung article. Germany today faces different and more challenges than it did during the time of division. What is crucial now is a change of perspective that is not based on the experiences of the Cold War. For this purpose, the authors mention five points for a strategic agenda of action. (in German)
13.05.2022
external page Die chinesisch-russische Kooperation im Bereich der nuklearen Abschreckung
In this article for SIRIUS magazine, CSS' Brian G. Carlson looks at the importance of nuclear issues in Moscow-Beijing relations. He describes how the nuclear dimension has been and continues to be a source of potential conflict, while also functioning as the basis of a deepening silent cooperation. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, efforts to maintain nuclear deterrence against the United States have even intensified. (in German)
The central arena of the strategic competition between the USA and China is the so-called Indo-Pacific. Behind it lies a new geopolitical concept that will fundamentally change Asia. CSS' Boas Lieberherr and Linda Maduz write for NZZ about their chapter in the newly released Strategic Trends 2022 publication and explain which trends currently can be observed in the region and what impact they have on Europe's role and interests. (in German)
With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the dialogue between Moscow and Washington on nuclear arms limitation has ended abruptly. Arms control, conventional as well as nuclear, is having a hard time at the moment, but it should not be declared dead, explains CSS' Névine Schepers in this article for NZZ about her chapter in the newly published Strategic Trends 2022 publication. (in German)
Strategic Trends 2022 attempts to address important trends in world politics at a time of rapid change and high levels of uncertainty. The authors have covered events up to April 1, fully aware that the situation could change considerably by the time of this volume’s publication. The four chapters cover important strategic trends that will shape international security in the years ahead regardless of the outcome of Russia’s war in Ukraine. Together, they address issues of arms and influence.
12.05.2022
external page «Für China wäre der Sturz Putins das schlimmste Szenario»
China would benefit from peace in Ukraine, says CSS' Brian Carlson in an interview with watson and explains why Xi Jinping nevertheless does not distance himself from Putin. He furthermore outlines how the war is being reported in Chinese media and what lessons China will draw from the war with regard to Taiwan. (in German)
external page They Fled Ukraine to Keep Their Cyber Startup Alive. Now, They’re Hacking Back.
The Ukrainian security firm Hacken relocated to Lisbon and now continues to support cyber operations against Russia. CSS' Stefan Soesanto explains to The Wall Street Journal that cyber attacks by non-state actors hitting Russian targets have met with little scrutiny despite pushes by Washington and Brussels to set international norms limiting such cyber activity. These norms and rules are gone now within the war in Ukraine.
11.05.2022
In an interview with Luzerner Zeitung, CSS' Stephen Herzog and Alexander Bollfrass talk about vacuum bombs and whether Russia used them in the attack on the Azov steel plant, other Russian nuclear weapons systems, and a potential militarization of space. (in German)
09.05.2022
“Neutrality is only one means among many”
The war in Ukraine poses some major challenges to Swiss security policy. In an interview with ETH Zurich, CSS director Andreas Wenger explains why we will need to broaden our understanding of defense in the future – and why international cooperation is becoming increasingly important.
04.05.2022
external page Foreign policy realists should be bolder about defeating Putin in Ukraine
Foreign policy realists must get clearer about the Western interest in Ukraine's military success and bolder about what enhanced weapons supplies can achieve to defeat Putin in Ukraine, argues CSS’ Henrik Larsen in this Atlantic Council UkraineAlert blog.
No. 304: European Defense Policy: Zeitenwende, Ltd.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February shocked Europe into unity, revitalized NATO, and led several European countries to re-evaluate their defense policies and strategic dependence on Russian energy. However, major changes in the European political and security architecture will take time to materialize, as the old fault lines persist, argues Dominika Kunertova in this CSS Analysis.
No. 303: Russia’s War in Ukraine: China’s Calculus
China confronts difficult choices in responding to Russia’s war in Ukraine. The war presents China with several risks, but China continues to view Russia as a valuable partner. China remains cautious about supporting Russia in ways that would incur heavy costs, such as helping it to evade sanctions, but it is likely to continue providing rhetorical support and resisting calls to rein in Russia, argues Brian G. Carlson in this CSS Analysis.
03.05.2022
external page European Strategic Responsibility Must Focus on Russia
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine presents a new political reality in which the European countries are ready to enhance their role in the defense of their own continent. However, they should focus on “strategic responsibility” rather than “strategic autonomy”, which remains militarily and politically unrealistic, argues CSS’ Henrik Larsen in this CSDS Policy Brief.
external page Beware of Western Hubris Over Ukraine
Hubris got Putin into a destructive war in Ukraine. The West must also beware of hubris, CSS’ Benno Zogg argues in this The Buzz blog from The National Interest. Supporting Ukraine in its aims, maintaining Western unity and enacting effective sanctions are formidable challenges, so total victory and regime change in Russia must not be implicit Western goals.
02.05.2022
external page NATO’s response to the Putin Doctrine will shape its operations for years to come
In this article for The Hill, CSS' Henrik Larsen argues that NATO allies must now rebuild a Cold War-style intelligence capacity and enhance their strategic thinking about the Kremlin, Russia, and the entire post-Soviet space. This includes, among other things, improving NATO's standing deterrent, which will likely require permanent bases in Eastern Europe, as well as a better understanding of Russia's intentions.
Like chemical weapons, biological weapons are outlawed and banned by an international agreement. CSS senior researcher and weapons of mass destruction expert Stephen Herzog told Luzerner Zeitung that he believes it is possible that the Russian regime is also running a biological weapons program. (in German)
29.04.2022
external page Ukraine: quatre scénarios pour le troisième mois
CSS' Niklas Masuhr tells Le Temps whether Russia can manage to break the front in the Donbass and stop arms deliveries to Ukraine. Moreover, he speculates that Putin could intensify his belligerent rhetoric or even issue an official declaration of war on May 9, the day commemorating the victory over Nazi Germany, which would mobilize the Russian public more effectively. (in French)
28.04.2022
Quiet Compliance: China’s Dilemma Over Western Sanctions Against Russia
The quiet compliance of Chinese companies with Western sanctions against Russia highlights a critical dilemma for Beijing, argues CSS' Sophie-Charlotte Fischer in this CSS Blog: China's continued dependence on the United States and Europe in strategic sectors of the economy restrains its political objectives vis-à-vis Russia.
external page Russische U-Boote interessieren sich für das Nervensystem des Internets
Russia is suspected of spying on submarine cables with special submersibles. CSS' Mauro Gill explains to NZZ what Russia's possible targets could be in an operation against the submarine cables, compares the current situation with espionage activities during the Cold War, and assesses to what extent Western states can protect the data links on the seabed. (in German)
27.04.2022
external page Kanzler Scholz unter Druck
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz argued for a long time that heavy weapons should not be supplied to Ukraine from the West because this would increase the risk of an escalation. CSS' Niklas Masuhr, on the other hand, tells SRF Rundschau that the goal of these arms deliveries is exactly the opposite: de-escalation. (in German)
external page Russia Attacks Infrastructure in Western Ukraine to Slow Supply Lines
Railways, fuel depots and bridges are increasingly being targeted by Russian air strikes to hinder the delivery of weapons to Donbas. CSS' Niklas Masuhr explains to The Guardian that the Russians presumably expected to control the skies at the start of the war, which would have made it easier to deny access to roads and railways. Now there are strong military incentives for a campaign behind front lines because the focus has shifted towards the Donbas.
26.04.2022
The Russian foreign minister has accused the West of raising the risk of nuclear war by supplying weapons to Ukraine. In doing so, he is stoking fears that Moscow could use tactical nuclear weapons. But what are tactical nuclear weapons and does Russia really have an interest in using them? CSS' Alexander Bollfrass provides answers in this interview with SRF News. (in German)
21.04.2022
external page Germany’s Security Revolution Is Already Stalling
The war in Ukraine has prompted the German government to overturn its meek security strategy that had lasted over three decades. However, real change would require confronting the root causes of German security policy failures, argues CSS' Alexander Bollfrass in this Foreign Policy article.
19.04.2022
Are we facing a cyber war? No, says CSS' Myriam Dunn Cavelty. In an interview with Beat Glogger, she explains what criminals are capable of and what we really have to fear. (in German)
external page Tagesschau vom 19.04.2022: Hauptausgabe
A new offensive against Ukraine has begun, this time focused on the Donbass. In an interview with SRF Tagesschau (minutes 4 to 7), CSS' Benno Zogg assesses the current balance of power, the role of logistics, and whether the Russian forces have been able to overcome their deficiencies from the initial phase of the war. (in German)
external page «Das wird kein einfacher Vorstoss für Russland»
The Russian army has launched the anticipated major attack in Eastern Ukraine. CSS' Benno Zogg assesses for SRF News how the Russian offensive is likely to progress and explains the strategic and symbolic importance of the city of Mariupol. (in German)
18.04.2022
external page NATO Cyber Game Tests Defenses Amid War in Ukraine
NATO's large, multiday cyber defense exercise is set to bring together technical experts from alliance countries and Ukraine nearly two months after Russia's invasion. The benefit of the exercise is that it sets a baseline for participants to measure their cyber defense skills against each other. It also helps experts get to know their counterparts in allied countries. If things happen, you can rely on them to assist you, says CSS' Stefan Soesanto in this article for The Wall Street Journal.
13.04.2022
external page Was chemische Waffen anrichten können
So far, there has been no officially confirmed use of chemical weapons in the war in Ukraine. In an interview with SRF News, CSS' Stephen Herzog explains how such a use can be proven, how chemical weapons work and why they are not particularly efficient as a strategic warfare tool, but rather have the goal of spreading fear and terror among the population. (in German)
12.04.2022
Why India Remains Neutral over Ukraine
As Russia's war rages in Ukraine, India has so far refrained from publicly criticizing Russia. CSS' Boas Lieberherr argues in this blog post that the country is unlikely to change course because an isolated Russia would be India's worst-case scenario.
external page Seeminen bedrohen Schifffahrt im Schwarzen Meer
The Ukrainian military reports the dropping of Russian mines in the Kharkiv region. In this context, CSS' Niklas Masuhr explains the use of such mines to SRF News Plus and elaborates on the mines' technical specifications and military function. (in German)
In this interview with Aargauer Zeitung, CSS' Stephen Herzog explains how likely it is that Russia will use chemical weapons and what the consequences would be. (in German)
09.04.2022
Putin's war in Ukraine is sparking a debate in Berlin that was considered taboo for decades: Does Europe need its own nuclear weapons to deter Russia in an emergency, even without the United States? CSS' head of think tank Oliver Thränert tells Der Spiegel that what Europe would need are flexible options in nuclear weaponry to be able to effectively restrain a country like Russia. (in German)
07.04.2022
Thermobaric weapons, also known as vacuum bombs, are said to have been used. CSS' Stephen Herzog and Alexander Bollfrass explain to Luzerner Zeitung how such weapons work and furthermore assess the Russian chemical weapons arsenal, which according to official statements from the Russian side no longer exists since 2017. (in German)
06.04.2022
No. 301: The War in Ukraine: First Lessons
As the war in Ukraine remains unsolved, many elements of the conflict still hang in the balance. However, early lessons can be drawn no matter the outcome; some military, some political. These will inform policymakers moving forward and highlight future challenges, argue Niklas Masuhr and Benno Zogg in this CSS Analysis.
external page Eine Geschichte der Enttäuschung
Sanctions can also backfire in war and further fuel the conflict. CSS' Benno Zogg explains in this article to REPUBLIK magazine how an energy and technology embargo can actually weaken the Russian army on the one hand, but on the other hand could also lead to a financially weakened Russia relying more on cheap military means with a lot of destructive power and in the worst case weapons of mass destruction. (in German)
external page Fake News im Ukraine-Krieg – So funktioniert Russlands Desinformation
The war in Ukraine is also a war on the web. Disinformation, propaganda and fake news are part of Russia's strategy to maintain the narrative of a clean war at all costs, CSS' Myriam Dunn Cavelty explains to SRF Impact. With its claims, the Russian government wants to distract from the real facts, stir up uncertainty and thereby justify the invasion. (in German)
05.04.2022
external page Hackers flood internet with what they say are Russian companies' files
Amateur hacktivists have leaked Russian companies' files, supporting Ukraine's war efforts with their own keyboards. CSS' Stefan Soesanto explains to NBC News why this data dump in his eyes is largely worthless and most likely will not have any real effect on those organizations.
29.03.2022
Germany is considering buying one of Israel’s famous missile defense systems to protect itself from Russia. In this France 24 article, CSS head of think tank Oliver Thränert comments that the Russian arsenal cannot be compared with the rockets Hamas uses and the Iron Dome intercepts. (in French)
external page Krieg in der Ukraine, Tagesschau vom 29.03.2022: Hauptausgabe
Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul are encouraging and important, but particularly the issue of security guarantees is tricky, argues CSS’ Benno Zogg in this SRF Tagesschau. Both sides still bet on military gains (minutes 3-7, in German).
28.03.2022
In this blog post, Lucia Höfer and CSS' Jakob Bund write about Russia's relationship with ransomware groups and the possibility of US-Russia cooperation for consultations on ransomware. They argue that Russia does not share an intrinsic interest when it comes to combating Russia-based ransomware groups that target foreign states and exert pressure on the US.
24.03.2022
external page Why is Russia's invasion plan failing?
Russia's military dwarfs Ukraine's by comparison, so it was expected that Ukraine would fall under Russian occupation quickly. Given the overwhelming odds stacked against the Ukrainian military, why has the Russian military failed to conquer Ukraine? CSS’ Niklas Masuhr gives answers in this BBC The Inquiry episode.
external page The EU Can Walk a Tightrope on Admitting Ukraine
The EU should learn from its experience in the Western Balkans and grant Ukraine the status of "potential candidate", argues CSS' Henrik Larsen in this Foreign Policy argument. This would give Ukraine a clear membership perspective without raising unrealistic expectations about pending accession negotiations.
23.03.2022
Russia’s hypersonic story in Ukraine: “Is this a dagger which I see before me?”
The Russian Ministry of Defence claimed that a Kinzhal missile has been fired against a Ukrainian military ammunitions warehouse which would mark the first known battle use of a hypersonic weapon. In this CSS blog, CSS' Dominika Kunertova points out several inconsistencies in the Russian story and further explains what damage strikes with these "wonder weapons" could cause.
22.03.2022
external page Wo sind im Ukraine-Krieg die «roten Linien»?
After Russia's claim that Ukraine had biological and chemical weapons, US President Biden warned against Russian use of biological and chemical weapons in Ukraine. In this interview for SRF News, CSS head of think tank Oliver Thränert talks about "red lines" in the war in Ukraine. (in German)
21.03.2022
external page Stephen Herzog and Alexander Bollfrass on Conversation Six
Everyone seems to be thinking about nuclear issues in the current context of the war in Ukraine but there will also be some consequences and effects for the global nuclear order beyond the immediate threats issued by Vladimir Putin in current discussions of deterrence and extended nuclear deterrence. On a Conversation Six podcast, CSS’ Stephen Herzog and Alexander Bollfrass talk about the global nuclear order in the war in Ukraine.
19.03.2022
In an interview for France 24, CSS’ Niklas Masuhr talks about the use of hypersonic missiles in Russia’s war against Ukraine and Russia’s performance on the battlefield so far as well as its strategy moving forward. (from minute 7)
16.03.2022
external page Friedensgespräche? Darum ist der ETH-Experte skeptisch
Why is Vladimir Putin's campaign in Ukraine so slow - and what are the consequences? Which numbers can you trust – and how much hope do the negotiations give? CSS' Alexander Bollfrass gives answers in this interview with blue News. (in German)
14.03.2022
external page Benno Zogg: «Ein Krieg verläuft nie genau nach Drehbuch»
Ukraine and Russia, both emphasize "progress" in their negotiations. For SRF 10 vor 10, CSS’ Benno Zogg discusses possible negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, room for compromise and a possible summit between Zelenskiy and Putin (in Swiss German).
11.03.2022
external page Krieg ohne Cyber
Predictions that massive cyber attacks could accompany a Russian invasion of Ukraine have not been proven true. In this context, CSS' Lennart Maschmeyer talks to Heise Magazine about the overestimated importance of cyber operations as a means of war. (in German)
08.03.2022
external page The China Factor in Tech Export Controls Against Russia
Will tech export controls against Russia further strengthen Sino-Russian high-tech cooperation? At this point, it seems unlikely that Beijing will put its future on the line to back Putin, argues CSS’ Sophie Fischer in her article for The Diplomat.
external page ‘The Euro-Atlantic security architecture is completely ruined’
In the aftermath of the Russian invasion in Ukraine, questions about the future of NATO and the consequences for the international security architecture arise. In this regard, CSS' Henrik Larsen speaks to SWI swissinfo about the relationship between Switzerland and NATO, how it evolved and why it is now time to move closer together.
03.03.2022
In an interview with NZZ, CSS head of think tank Oliver Thränert explains why threats with nuclear weapons are part of a general nuclear strategic thinking that, apart from Russia, can also be observed among other great powers. He also talks about the preconditions for the actual use of nuclear weapons, the probability of such an attack, and the long-term effects of the threatening gestures on the geopolitical structure. (in German)
01.03.2022
external page Putin ha rafforzato l'Alleanza atlantica come non mai
The narrative that the Russian president is a good strategist raises doubts. In fact, he seems to be doing everything to strengthen the western bloc, argue Andrea Gilli and CSS' Mauro Gilli in their article for Il Foglio. (in Italian)
external page US-Militärmanöver in Osteuropa
Since yesterday, American forces with 13,000 soldiers from 13 countries have been practicing various combat scenarios. What exactly do they practice? Why are the military maneuvers taking place right now? How critical is the situation at the moment? CSS’ Niklas Masuhr provides answers in this interview for SRF Rendez-vous. (in German)
external page Warum das russische Militär seine Trümpfe (noch) nicht ausspielt
CSS’ Myriam Dunn Cavelty tells NZZ that one of the reasons why Putin is hesitating this time with cyber attacks on critical infrastructures such as the power and telecommunications networks or water supply could be their complexity. The question arises as to whether they are even worthwhile during an ongoing military conflict. (in German)
external page Tagesschau vom 01.03.2022: Mittagsausgabe
In an interview with SRF Tagesschau Mittagsausgabe, CSS head of think tank Oliver Thränert reports on the latest assessments of the situation and yesterday's peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. (from minute 2:50) (in German)
external page Ende der Neutralität? Die Schweiz und der Ukraine-Krieg – Interview m Benno Zogg
Switzerland supports the EU's sanctions against Russia - a remarkable change in previous policies. CSS’ Benno Zogg reports on his assessments on Deutschlandfunk. (in German)
external page Hacker im Ukraine-Krieg / Cyber-Scharmützel statt Großangriff
Fears that Russian hackers have long infiltrated Ukrainian computers have not materialized so far. The cyber war is still a sideshow of the war, it is more of a “banter” that is supposed to cause psychological uncertainty, argues CSS’ Lennart Maschmeyer, among others, in his contribution for Deutschlandfunk. (in German)
28.02.2022
external page «Es ist eine Warnung, aber noch keine nukleare Eskalation»
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on Sunday that he would place the Russian army's nuclear forces on a special alert regime. CSS' Névine Schepers explains what is known in this article for Blue News. (in German)
external page Krieg in der Ukraine
In this SRF News special, CSS head of think tank Oliver Thränert, Luzia Tschirky and others provided new assessments of the situation in Russia's war against Ukraine. (in German)
external page «L’armée russe va davantage utiliser sa puissance de feu»
Russian troops failed to overthrow the Ukrainian government as they hoped to do very soon. The war is entering a new phase that will be devastating, warns CSS’ Niklas Masuhr in this article in Le Temps. (in French)
external page "Die Auswirkungen wären ähnlich wie bei einem AKW-Unfall"
Russia more or less openly threatens with nuclear weapons. What would the deployment of nuclear weapons in Ukraine mean for the surrounding countries and how well is Switzerland prepared? CSS’ head of think tank Oliver Thränert provides answers in this interview for swissinfo. (in German)
27.02.2022
external page "Angst ist ein wirksames politisches Druckmittel"
Russian President Vladimir Putin has publicly announced that he has put Russia's nuclear deterrent forces on high alert. In an interview with Die Zeit, CSS head of think tank Oliver Thränert assesses the situation and discusses possible scenarios. (in German)
external page Psychologische Kriegsführung in der Ukraine
In an interview for this SRF Tagesschau, CSS’ Benno Zogg comments on psychological warfare in Ukraine. (from minute 21) (in German)
In this analysis for watson, CSS' Niklas Masuhr reports on the use of cluster munitions in Russia's war against Ukraine. (in German)
26.02.2022
external page Kiew bittet Hacker-Community um Hilfe
Russia wants to persuade Ukraine to give up its pro-Western foreign policy with cyber attacks, says CSS’ Lennart Maschmeyer in this 20 Minuten interview. But the attacks in recent weeks seem haphazard and confused. (in German)
25.02.2022
external page Sanktionen gegen Russland: Welche Folgen der Hightech-Exportstopp hat
In this interview for Deutschlandfunk, CSS' Sophie-Charlotte Fischer explains the effects of the sanctions against Russia on high-tech exports. (in German)
Russian and Ukrainian hackers usually work hand in hand. But now their countries are at war and the Ukrainian army is looking for cyber attack volunteers. In a comment for the NZZ, CSS’ Stefan Soesanto doubts that Ukraine can now expand its offensive cyber capabilities with volunteers in a short time. He rather expects actions that attract public attention but do no great harm. (in German)
external page «Tagesgespräch»: Niklas Masuhr über Russlands Kriegsstrategie
Second day in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Many people have already been killed. What can the further course of this war look like? CSS’ Niklas Masuhr talks about Russia's war strategy in SRF's Rendez-vous Tagesgespräch. (in German)
In this interview for ETH Zürich, CSS’ Benno Zogg talks about President Putin’s goals, the effectiveness of sanctions and the consequences of the invasion for European security.
external page «Sanktionen werden Putins Militärapparat langfristig schwächen»
How will NATO and the EU react to Russia's attack on Ukraine? And are the Russians also threatening other countries in Eastern Europe? Assessments by CSS’ Benno Zogg in this Tages-Anzeiger article. (in German)
24.02.2022
external page Krieg in der Ukraine, gespaltenes Grenzland Ukraine, die Schweiz und ihre Neutralität
In an interview for SRF 10 vor 10, CSS’ Benno Zogg talks about President Putin's goals, the effectiveness of sanctions and the consequences of the invasion for European security. (in German)
external page Krieg in der Ukraine – die Lage am Abend nach der Invasion
For SRF News spezial, CSS' head of think tank Oliver Thränert and others discuss the meaning of the war against the Ukraine for world history, NATO's reactions, Putin's intentions, reactions of the Russian people, the effects of further sanctions and further assessments of the situation. (in German)
external page Russia unleashed data-wiper malware on Ukraine, say cyber experts
Cyber experts have identified a new strain of computer-disabling malware unleashed on Ukrainian targets as part of Russia’s offensive, as the UK government and banks said they were on alert for online attacks. For this The Guardian article, CSS’ Lennart Maschmeyer says however, that the cyber operations we have seen do not show long preparation, and instead look rather haphazard.
external page Interview: Wie Tech-Sanktionen gegen Russland wirken würden
The first round of sanctions imposed by the US and the EU hit Russia's financial sector in particular. Now that President Vladimir Putin has ordered the invasion of Ukraine, further measures will follow, including export restrictions on important technologies. In an interview for Europe.Table, CSS’ Sophie-Charlotte Fischer explains what such sanctions against Russia could do. (in German)
external page Des images satellites montrent une nouvelle étape dans le déploiement militaire russe
In this Le Temps interview, CSS' Dominika Kunertova and Niklas Masuhr talk about the intentions behind Russia's invasion of parts of the Ukrainian territory, as well as the conclusions drawn from the February 24 troop deployments. (in French)
23.02.2022
external page Atomenergiebehörde weist Putins Vorwurf an die Ukraine zurück
Russia has accused Ukraine of wanting to build up nuclear weapons and that it has the technology to do so. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and arms control experts disagree, as does CSS’ head of think tank Oliver Thränert in this article for the Tagesspiegel. He is not aware of any irregularities in the IAEA inspections. The Ukraine even has an additional protocol on the necessary security agreements in force and in this respect implements a high degree of transparency. (in German)
22.02.2022
external page Eskalation im Ukraine-Konflikt
In SRF News spezial, CSS’ head of think tank Oliver Thränert, Sebastian Ramspeck and others talked about an international recognition of the People's Republic of Luhansk and Donetsk, possible effects of the latest Western sanctions against Russia and future prospects regarding the situation. (in German)
In this interview with watson, CSS' Niklas Masuhr describes three possible scenarios for the development of the conflict over Ukraine.
21.02.2022
external page Krise in Osteuropa – kommt es zum Krieg?
In "TalkTäglich" by TeleZüri, CSS' Niklas Masuhr talks about the escalating conflict with Russia, in particular about ceasefire violations, diplomatic efforts and more. (in German)
15.02.2022
external page Aus historischen Gründen keine Waffen für die Ukraine
The conflict over Ukraine continues to develop, but Germany maintains its decision to resolve the conflict diplomatically and not to supply weapons to Ukraine. This reluctance is based on Germany's history. In an interview with WDR 5, CSS' head of think tank Oliver Thränert explains why Germany must stop claiming a special role in security politics solely by referring to their history. (in German)
11.02.2022
external page Was der Ukraine drohen könnte, wenn Russland einen Cyberangriff startet
In recent years, Ukraine has repeatedly been the target of cyber attacks and experts estimate that further attacks can be expected in the context of the current conflict with Russia. But how effective cyber operations actually are during a warlike conflict is debatable. In this article, NZZ quotes CSS' Lennart Maschmeyer, whose research indicates that cyber operations neither replace the use of physical force nor increase the effectiveness of military actions. (in German)
04.02.2022
external page Ukraine Considers International Cyber Help
Ukraine is seeking support from other nations in tracing the origins of a January 14 attack on 90 Ukrainian websites. Countries that help Ukraine may apply what they learn to help defend their own government networks and companies, which is an interesting opportunity as CSS' Stefan Soesanto tells the Wall Street Journal for their article.
24.01.2022
external page Forget NATO, Ukraine must refocus on the EU
In the ongoing negotiations that could potentially prevent a Russian attack against Ukraine, the Western debate remains almost exclusively focused on Ukraine’s right to join NATO. However, none of the Russian demands in the current crisis concern the country’s continued economic integration with the West. In this Politico article, CSS' Henrik Larsen proposes that such an economic integration with Europe could provide Kyiv with an alternative.
20.01.2022
external page «Ausgang und Ausmass der Ukraine-Krise sind nicht absehbar»
In this interview with SRF Echo der Zeit, CSS Director Andreas Wenger talks about Russia's possible military intervention in Ukraine and, in this regard, the objectives of diplomatic negotiations between Russia and the West. (in German)
19.01.2022
external page Ukraine, Russia and Belarus
In this interview with The Globalist on Radio Monocle 24, CSS' Benno Zogg discusses joint military exercises between Russia and Belarus in the context of a potential Russian attack on Ukraine.