The Promise and Peril of Wargaming

Wargaming can be a powerful tool for educating soldiers, developing military doctrine, and determining future investment strategies. However, wargaming also has real limitations: if misapplied, wargaming can reinforce bad assumptions and be used to justify unrealistic or faulty battle plans, argues Taylor Grossman in this CSS Analysis.

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Participants look at the visualization during the NATO-organized Locked Shields cyber defense exercise in Tallinn in April 2019. Ints Kalnins / Reuters

Developed during the Gupta Empire in the sixth century BCE, the abstracted strategy game Chaturanga is often cited as the earliest iteration of a wargame. Other examples have been traced back to ancient Greece (Pessoi), Egypt (Senet and T’au), and China (Wei-chi). Modern wargaming has its roots in the early 19th century, where it emerged out of the Enlightenment-era belief that any human endeavor – including the chaos of battle – could be analyzed through the scientific method. Yet over time, wargaming has come to embrace other elements, including chance, that emphasize the less rational facets of conflict.

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