Great Power Technological Competition in a Globalized, Complex and Fragmented World

Technological competition has long been at the heart of international security. Economic containment vis-a-vis the Soviet Union has been a key pillar of the United States’ grand strategy during the Cold War. Since the late 2010s, export controls and other measures aimed at slowing down China’s rise have become a central feature of Sino-American strategic competition. However, despite similarities, today’s global economic and political environment are different in important ways: Great power competition in the 21st century is marked by a high degree of economic interdependence, a shift from state-led to commercially driven innovation, and increasingly complex and fragmented global value chains. This environment poses new challenges to great powers in the way they compete in and through technology. First, technologies with potential military applications are increasingly produced in markets dominated by private actors and interests, which leads to the creation of security externalities. Second, global economic integration and the fragmentation of global value chains have created complex dependencies that are increasingly recognized as strategic vulnerabilities by states. Third, the complexity of modern technology can inhibit the diffusion of the knowledge and skill required for their production, which promotes mono- and oligopolistic market structures and can significantly slow down technological catchup.

Against this background, this dissertation project develops a theoretical framework of great power technological competition in a globalized, complex, and fragmented world. It argues that these political and economic changes have contributed to a shift from short-term to long-term strategic competition that revolves around harnessing the innovation potential of emerging general-purpose technologies. Based on the different strategic logics under which leading, rising and other advanced industrialized states are compelled to operate in such an environment, it develops a theoretical account of how states leverage denial and strategic industrial policy to pursue their respective goals.