Publication

In light of growing tensions between Hanoi and Beijing, mainly caused by territorial disputes in the South China Sea, this memo discusses how the US should plan for the possibility of a military clash between Vietnam and China. In particular, the author discusses 1) three potential scenarios that could trigger such a clash; 2) some of the warning indicators which may suggest that the likelihood of a military confrontation is growing; 3) the implications that such a crisis could have for US interests; and 4) some of the preventative and mitigating options available to US policy makers for dealing with the threat, or outbreak of, such a crisis.