Publication
Oct 2007
This paper empirically investigates the politics involved in IMF economic forecasts, using panel data for 157 countries over the period 1999-2005. The authors find a systematic bias in growth and inflation forecasts. According to their results, countries receive lower inflation forecasts if they vote in line with the US in the UN General Assembly, have greater IMF loans outstanding relative to GDP, or a fixed exchange rate regime.
Download |
English (PDF, 36 pages, 285 KB) |
---|---|
Author | Axel Dreher, Silvia Marchesi, James Raymond Vreeland |
Series | Leitner Program Working Papers |
Issue | 11 |
Publisher | Leitner Program in International & Comparative Political Economy |
Copyright | © 2007 Leitner Program |