Publication

Taking July 2016 as its starting point, this memo ponders the likelihood that the Afghan Unity Government will collapse in the next 12-18 months, and the territorial gains the Taliban might achieve. To prevent or mitigate these possibilities, the US should 1) reinvigorate its diplomatic efforts to resolve Afghanistan’s “acute” economic and social grievances; 2) sustain the current number and type of US military forces within the country, and decrease the constraints put on them; and 3) continue supporting the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces.