Trickling Down or Spilling Over? Exploring the Links between International and Sub-National Water Conflicts in the Eastern Nile and Syr Daria Basin

This paper focuses on the linkages between international and subnational water conflicts in the Eastern Nile and Syr Daria Basins. It follows the notion of conflict system, to conceptualize dynamic linkages between different water conflict arenas. These arenas are connected through the channeling of material (e.g. water) and symbolic resources (e.g. political legitimacy) from one level to another. The aim of the paper is to categorize possible linkages, describe examples and explore implications for water conflict mitigation, with the goal of a better problem-solving potential. The examples in the paper indicate that once a countries' supply-side infrastructure is well developed, a policy shift has to take place to demand-side management of water resources. This transition involves conflicts when water is reallocated between sectors. Avoiding demand-side management in the long-term, however, is likely to lead to an escalation of water conflicts in the sub-national and international arena. The role of third parties, their financial support and potential to facilitate communication in international water conflicts is highlighted. Conflict parties and third parties can enhance their conflict management effectiveness by taking water conflict linkages into consideration, focusing on demand-side management in the long-run, and increasing the political participation of affected actors.