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As Alexander Lukashenko has become a toxic figure at home and abroad, three scenarios for the regime’s future are perceptible. Each has important foreign policy implications, and Russia is key in all of them, argues Benno Zogg in this CSS Policy Perspective.

There is a pervasive fear that information technology enhances the effectiveness of destabilizing disinformation campaigns. Yet evidence from Ukraine, the paradigmatic case of “hybrid war”, indicates this threat is overstated, argues Lennart Maschmeyer in this CSS Analysis. Rather, traditional media remain far more influential. The prevailing focus on technology hampers both analysis and the development of effective counterstrategies

In South-East Asia, the emerging great power China is challenging the supremacy of the US, which is clinging to its leading role in the region, argue Linda Maduz and Simon Stocker in this new CSS Analysis. Although the countries of South-East Asia agree that the great power conflict is harming them as individual countries and as a region, they are, nevertheless, seeking mainly selective, country-specific solutions in response to their shrinking room for maneuver.

This edited volume compiled by CSS director Andreas Wenger and Alex S. Wilner focuses on contemporary denial, bridging the theoretical gap that persists between classical deterrence theory and contemporary insecurity.