Belarus in Upheaval: Three Scenarios
As Alexander Lukashenko has become a toxic figure at home and abroad, three scenarios for the regime’s future are perceptible. Each has important foreign policy implications, and Russia is key in all of them, argues Benno Zogg in this CSS Policy Perspective.
In Sochi in September 2020, Vladimir Putin granted Belarus a loan of USD 1,5 billion that was widely considered a gesture of support for Lukashenko’s repression of protests. kremlin.ru
Key Points
- Despite widespread protests, Lukashenko violently holds on to power – with Russian support. Yet political change is inevitable, and all eyes are on the Kremlin.
- Three scenarios are foreseeable: a managed revolution removing Lukashenko, a dictatorship following the current trajectory, and a managed transition as a most likely long-term scenario.
- Even within the managed transition scenario, different degrees of pluralism and dependence on Russia are possible, with varied implications for stability in Eastern Europe.
- In the long run, the West may come to terms with a new Belarusian government. This means finding a delicate balance between targeted sanctions and support for civil society, while avoiding East-West polarization.