30 Oct 2019 | CSS Blog Network

This week's featured graphics provide an overview of the trend in Russia’s defense spending, outlining spending between 2010 and 2018 as well as forecasts for the defense budget up to 2021. Fore more on the prospects for Russia’s defense spending and more, see ‘Russian Analytical Digest No. 237: Security Issues’.

Oct 2019 | Publications

Policy makers and scholars alike have long argued that post-colonial Africa has experienced many civil wars but very few interstate-armed conflicts. Based on a new data set, Allard Duursma et al questions this consensus. They find that transnational links are a major feature of armed conflict in Africa. As a result, conflict resolution and prevention should no longer be seen as solely an internal matter for the country concerned. Policy makers must systematically integrate the political interests of neighbors and regional hegemons in their planning for peace negotiations and peace support operations.

28 Oct 2019 | CSS Blog Network

The UN recently released the fifth edition of the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR19). McKenna Coffey writes that the report highlights 1) the increasingly complex interaction between hazards; 2) how risk and risk reduction are understood in practice: 3) how the latest Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) framework links up with the Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, and more. But to provide a deeper insight into the report, Coffey here talks with Roger Pulwarty, Senior Scientist at the NOAA and lead author of the GAR19.

Oct 2019 | Publications

Over the last decade, cyber incidents have become more expensive, disruptive and political. In this article, Myriam Dunn Cavelty and Andreas Wenger provide a historical overview of the academic literature that has accompanied this development. More specifically, they outline how technological possibilities, political choices and scientific practices have shaped cybersecurity politics and related research. They also identify empirical trends and thematic clusters in academic literature on the topic before discussing what the future may hold.

25 Oct 2019 | CSS Blog Network

Vincenzo Bove, Mauricio Rivera and Chiara Ruffa argue that terrorism not only damages economies and weakens human rights but also increases military participation in politics. To demonstrate their case, the authors use the examples of France and Algeria to show how this holds for democracies and autocracies alike. They also outline how long-enduring episodes of terrorist violence could affect the quality of democracy through military involvement in politics becoming ingrained and routine.

Oct 2019 | Publications

Leo Michel and Matti Pesu write that the post-Cold War era may have initially been characterized by optimism, but geopolitical competition now dominates once more. What might this mean for deterrence, and nuclear deterrence in particular? To find out, Michel and Pesu look at 1) the basic principles of deterrence; 2) the nuclear-related policies and capabilities of the four nuclear weapon states most directly involved in European security affairs – Russia, the US, France and the UK; 3) what recent trends in strategic deterrence mean for Northern Europe, and more.

23 Oct 2019 | CSS Blog Network

Ramesh Thakur writes that there are three sets of reasons for rising anxieties regarding nuclear weapons around the globe: 1) Growing nuclear arsenals and expanding roles for nuclear weapons; 2) a crumbling arms-control architecture, and 3) irresponsible statements from the leaders of some nuclear-armed states. To address the situation, Thakur contends that the five permanent members of the UN Security Council should co-sponsor a resolution to reaffirm that ‘a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought’. Here’s his explanation why.

21 Oct 2019 | Security Watch

Federica Mogherini contends that Europe is finally taking greater responsibility for European and global security. For instance, the EU has recently developed three key tools to reduce the long-standing fragmentation of Europe’s defense sector: the European Defense Fund (EDA), the coordinated annual review of national defense budgets and Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO). However, Mogherini stresses that the EU wants to take such efforts and assume its responsibilities in the spirit of cooperation with its partners, starting with NATO and the US. That is, the EU wishes to pursue ‘cooperative autonomy’.

21 Oct 2019 | CSS Blog Network

Florian Egloff contends that when it comes to the public attribution of cyber incidents, government and private sector actors provide a skewed version of cyber conflict. Further, such public attributions are also open to contestation in such a way that creates particular problems in the area of cybersecurity. To help remedy the situation, Egloff contends that there is an increasing need for academic intervention regarding attributions.

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The Carnegie Middle East Center is one of five regional, public policy-focused think tanks established and operated by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The Center specifically concerns itself with political and economic developments within the Arab World, Turkey and Iran.