Political and Economic Consequences of Russia’s War against Ukraine
The topics of this Russian Analytical Digest issue are the political and economic consequences of Russia’s war in Ukraine. The issue looks at Russia’s role in the post-Soviet region. It presents a broad analysis of Russia’s preparations for war. It also discusses ways of economic forecasting in view of the abrupt shocks to the Russian economy. Finally it describes Russia’s propaganda strategy using the example of the Bucha massacres.
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Chapter 1: Russia’s War in Ukraine — The Domestic, Neighborhood and Foreign Policy Nexus
By Stefan Meister
Russia’s military intervention will change Russia itself and its relations towards post-Soviet countries. It will undermine Putin’s great power ambitions and role as a hegemon in its post-Soviet neighborhood. Further securitization and isolation will weaken Russia’s ability to modernize. This will further fuel the disintegration of the post-Soviet space and weaken Russia’s role in a multipolar world.
Chapter 2: The Planned War
By Heiko Pleines
In retrospect, it is clear that a close circle around Russian President Vladimir Putin has been systematically preparing for the current war in Ukraine for years. It is not clear from the outside when exactly the decision to attack Ukraine was made. However, during his first term in office, Putin made it clear that he was concerned with restoring Russia’s national greatness and that, from his point of view, Ukraine belonged to Russia.
Chapter 3: Russia’s Economy: Between a Crash and a Hard Landing
By Andrei Yakovlev
Based on macro-level data, most analysts forecasting Russia’s economic development following the introduction of new large-scale sanctions expect a 10–12% drop in GDP, 20–25% inflation, and an increase in unemployment from 4.4% to 7–8% by the end of this year. This article argues that in the context of a severe economic shock, micro-data and comparison with similar cases offer a better guide to future developments than macro-data.
Chapter 4: Excusing the Massacre: Russian Officials and State-Run Media on Bucha
By Daria Zakharova
On April 2 a series of immensely graphic images from Bucha, a suburb of the Ukrainian capital, were distributed by the leading international mass media. As details emerged, it became clear that Russian forces had massacred civilians in Bucha. Russian officials and state-run media have, however, been expressing an alternative view, using a “firehose of falsehood” to mislead domestic audiences and sow doubt about the cause of the massacre.
Opinion Poll: Russian Public Opinion on the Ukraine War, Sanctions and Support for the Political Leadership