Russia’s War in Ukraine: China’s Calculus
China confronts difficult choices in responding to Russia’s war in Ukraine. The war presents China with several risks, but China continues to view Russia as a valuable partner. China remains cautious about supporting Russia in ways that would incur heavy costs, such as helping it to evade sanctions, but it is likely to continue providing rhetorical support and resisting calls to rein in Russia, argues Brian G. Carlson in this CSS Analysis.
Russia’s war in Ukraine will serve as an important test for the China-Russia relationship. In recent years, a shared desire to revise the international order and to reduce the power of the US has drawn the two countries together. Russia has set aside concerns about a potential threat from China, calculating that China’s rise distracts the US from Europe and thereby increases Russia’s room for maneuver. Similarly, China perceives benefit from Russia’s antagonism with the West, which limits US ability to focus on China’s growing power and ambitions in Asia and beyond.