Sicherheit 2024

Summary

This brief summary presents the results of questions surveyed in January 2024 as part of “Security Study 2024” and compares them with the results of “Security Study 2023” (January 2023). In some cases, reference is also made to a follow-up survey in June 2022 and to the survey in January 2022.

Future Expectations and General Security:

In January 2024, voters are significantly less optimistic about the future development of the global political situation than they were in January 2023. 18% (–6 percentage points; pp) are optimistic about the future of the global political situation, which is the lowest value since measurements began (2015). The reduction in optimism is most likely due to the ongoing war in Ukraine and the outbreak of the Israel-Gaza war on October 7, 2023. In contrast, 79% are optimistic about Switzerland’s future and this has remained statistically unchanged since June 2022. Despite the wars, the general sense of security among the population is high. At 92%, slightly fewer respondents felt secure in January 2024 than in January 2023 (–2 pp).

Trust in Institutions:

Compared to the previous year, trust in the majority of the institutions surveyed is stable and overall trust is at an above-average level. Both the Federal Council and Parliament achieved comparatively high levels of trust in the years following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. This level of trust has no longer been reached in 2024 and trust in the Federal Council and the Federal Parliament has fallen significantly in statistical terms. Nevertheless, trust in both the Federal Council and the Federal Parliament remains above average in a multi-year comparison.

Foreign and Security Policy:

The opinion of the Swiss electorate on various foreign and security policy issues is largely stable. In particular, a clear majority continues to support increased economic cooperation with the EU (76%), Switzerland’s involvement in the UN (active support for UN issues: 60%; Swiss UN peacekeeping troops: 59%) and increased conflict mediation by Switzerland (76%). After 55% of respondents were in favor of closer ties with NATO last year, the figure in January 2024 is 52%. For the first time, attitudes towards Switzerland’s participation in the “European Sky Shield Initiative” were surveyed. This is also supported by a majority (62%). As in all surveys since the turn of the millennium, there is no majority in favor of joining the EU (17%) or NATO (30%). In contrast to these stable values, approval for more development aid has fallen significantly (–7 pp), but is still supported by a majority of 58%. There are also differences compared to last year with regard to opinion on military autonomy. At 39% (+6 pp), significantly more respondents believe that Switzerland should only rely on its own national defense. However, this figure is still below the ten-year average of 43%. As a focus topic in 2024, respondents were asked for their opinion on seven specific forms of cooperation with NATO. Forms of political and institutional cooperation with NATO meet with broad approval as long as they remain at the level of talks and planning. A majority of the population also sees nothing against technological cooperation with NATO. The Swiss population is divided on operational forms of cooperation with NATO.

Neutrality:

Compared to January 2022 (–6 pp), there is less support for the principle of neutrality, but at 91% it is still very popular, with a value identical to that of January 2023. In contrast, “differential” neutrality – taking a clear stance in political conflicts but remaining neutral in military conflicts – has fallen significantly (51%, –6 pp). The wish to also take a clear stance on military conflicts abroad has risen from 18% (in January 2021) to 26% in January 2024 – but remains unchanged compared to the previous year. A majority of the population continues to support the solidarity (90%, –2 pp) and identity function (79%, –1 pp) of neutrality. While approval for the security policy function of neutrality has risen significantly from 55% to 61% within a year, the protective effect of a military alliance in Europe is still preferred by a good third of respondents relative to those favoring the maintenance of neutrality.

Sanctions against Russia:

Compared to June 2022 and January 2023, attitudes towards Swiss sanctions against Russia have changed significantly. Although a majority is still convinced that the sanctions are justified (69%, –6 pp) and are compatible with neutrality (64%, –6 pp), approval is significantly lower in 2024. Although, at 41% (+7 pp), the view that Switzerland can no longer offer its “Good Offices” as a result of the sanctions remains the opinion of a minority, agreement on this has risen significantly.

Defense Policy:

The desire to strengthen the Swiss Armed Forces’ operational capability is more clearly present among the electorate in January 2024 than in the previous year. More voters want “very well trained” (92%, +3 pp) and “fully equipped” armed forces (79%, +3 pp). Almost half of voters (48%, +5 pp) also consider the military to be a central institution in Swiss society. At the same time, fewer Swiss are in favor of abolishing compulsory military service (31%, –4 pp). Particularly noteworthy is the high proportion of people who consider spending on national defense to be too low (20%, +6 pp). The fact that one in five people rate military spending as too low is a historically high figure in the longitudinal analysis since 1986. A relative majority of 45% consider defense spending to be just right. For the first time, voters were asked to what extent awareness of national defense should be raised in society and whether young people should be given more information about the tasks of the armed forces at school. A clear majority of 73% ofrespondents agreed with both statements.

Importance of Selected Tasks of the Armed Forces:

How do respondents rate the current importance and future significance of selected tasks of the armed forces? The Swiss see the greatest importance of the military in terms of disaster relief in Switzerland as well as national defense in the event of war. These two
tasks already received the highest approval ratings in previous surveys. Preventing terrorist attacks, defending against cyber attacks and maintaining air sovereignty are also seen as particularly important tasks for the armed forces. The importance of peacekeeping missions abroad and tasks relating to sporting and leisure events are rated, comparatively speaking, lowest. However, it should be emphasized that
the electorate perceive the overall importance of tasks performed by the armed forces to have increased relative to just over 20 years ago. In other words, the Swiss believe that the armed forces have more tasks to take care of than in previous years. According to a clear majority of 81%, the defense provided by the armed forces against cyber attacks will become more important in the future. Preventing terrorist attacks and supporting the border guard in the event of large influxes of refugees are both seen by 63% as becoming more important tasks for the armed forces in future. 62% assume that the military will be increasingly involved in disaster relief in Switzerland in the future. Voters are rather divided as to whether national defense for the eventuality of war will become a more important task. 47% believe that its importance will remain the same, while 44% see this task as increasingly important in the future.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the Swiss Armed Forces:

In “Security Study 2024”, the population was asked for the first time about their opinion on AI for military purposes. Clear majorities are of the opinion that their development should be promoted (63%) and that the military use of AI by the armed forces increases Switzerland’s security (61%). 45% of the electorate believe that the military use of AI by the armed forces poses a major risk for Switzerland. 28% of respondents are of the opinion that the development of AI for the military context is fundamentally wrong.