Mediation Perspectives: Third Party Pressure Fueling Rebel Fragmentation

This blog article explores the potential interlinkages between different forms of conflict management and rebel fragmentation. Civil wars that experience rebel fragmentation tend to last longer, produce more casualties and have a higher likelihood of recurrence. Currently, these conflict dynamics can be observed in Myanmar, the Philippines, Syria and South Sudan. Conflict management as a potential driver of rebel fragmentation has received little attention. However, third parties can unintentionally do harm. They can change the motives and incentives of actors in such a way that certain rebel factions may choose to break away instead of continuing to cooperate. Thus, entirely new groups may emerge, decreasing the chances of negotiated peace agreements. By being more aware of this phenomenon, third parties could minimize the risk of doing harm.