Nuclear Proliferation and International Stability

Does nuclear proliferation have stabilizing or destabilizing effects? This question is fascinating for scholars of the nuclear age and highly consequential for practical policy issues. For in order to debate the merits of particular policy choices—such as preventive military strikes against nuclear facilities, grand bargains with potential proliferators, or complete nuclear disarmament—we first need to understand how the spread of nuclear weapons impacts regional and global security. To enhance our understanding of this crucial issue, this chapter engages the empirical literature on the consequences of proliferation, focusing on how the pursuit and acquisition of nuclear weapons by additional states have influenced international stability. It also explores whether some states have been more affected than others, and what measures these states have taken to prevent proliferation or to mitigate its negative consequences.