No. 104: Fukushima and the Limits of Risk Analysis

Author(s): Jonas Hagmann
Editor(s): Daniel Trachsler
Series: CSS Analyses in Security Policy
Issue: 104
Publisher(s): Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich
Publication Year: 2011

Risk analyses serve to identify future opportunities and risks systematically and thus make them calculable and manageable. Today, risk analysis is applied in an increasing number of policy fields, including in security policy. Catastrophes such as the Fukushima disaster raise questions about the limits of this approach, however. In view of difficulties regarding integration of the probability aspect, regarding risk compilation, and regarding its explanatory power, a differentiated application of the risk analysis methodology is advisable.

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Limits of Risk Analysis

Prioritisation of Risks

UK National Risk Analysis