No. 58: US$147/B One Year On

Political Winners and Strategic Losers

Author(s): Matthew Hulbert
Editor(s): Daniel Trachsler
Series: CSS Analyses in Security Policy
Issue: 58
Publisher(s): Center for Security Studies, ETH Zurich
Publication Year: 2009

After a five year bull run from 2004-08 oil producers became used to high receipts cementing support at home while buying influence abroad. As highs of $147/b in 2008 turned to lows of $33/b in 2009, the political demise of producer regimes was expected to follow. But amid a sustained economic crisis, political resilience became the leitmotif of producer states. With prices and resource nationalism set to rise in tandem, the political impetus could shift back to producers once more, but unless lessons are learnt from 2008/9, all states will lose out.

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