Strategic Trends 2018

As has been the trend in recent years, 2017 was characterized by significant changes in international politics, highlighting the growing complexity of the world we live in. Reflections on major developments can be found in the contributions to this year’s “Strategic Trends 2018”. In the first chapter, Jack Thompson looks at the new foreign policy of the US under President Trump. In his view, the US will remain the most important player in global affairs, but is struggling to adapt to the evolution of the international system and will be more vulnerable than ever to changes in the geopolitical landscape. Managing relations with Russia and China will be among the main challenges that the West will face in the coming years. Brian Carlson therefore examines the China-Russia relationship and its effects on world politics. China is also an important factor in Severin Fischer’s chapter on the impacts of technological change in the energy sector. In his view, China will be the dominant player in the world of new and clean technologies, notably solar and batteries. This could be good for development goals and limiting global warming, but not necessarily for the influence of the Western world in other regions. Within this changing international system, calls for improving national resilience across different sectors in states and economies are becoming louder. Tim Prior’s chapter examines the growing focus on resilience in Western security policy, particularly with respect to deterring asymmetric threats.