The Southern Gas Corridor and Europe's Gas Supply

The southern gas corridor, as embodied by the European-supported Nabucco pipeline, is designed to secure access to new suppliers of gas outside of Russia for the European market and open a route for gas deliveries that does not traverse Russian territory. While there are a number of Central Asian and Middle Eastern countries that could supply Nabucco with gas in the longer term, only Azerbaijan can be counted on as a secure source of regular deliveries in the foreseeable future. A comprehensive assessment of Nabucco must take into account alternative future pipeline routes that will also lead westwards from the Black Sea region, namely the Russian-supported South Stream underwater pipeline from the Black Sea to Bulgaria, with an extension towards the Balkans, and designs for a White Stream underwater pipeline from Georgia to Ukraine. Among Nabucco's competitors, the South Stream has the best prospects of being realized, but it would neither prevent nor replace Nabucco. The security of Europe's supply will not be substantially increased by Nabucco, because this channel will deliver only a small fraction of the continent's gas imports. On the other hand, Europe has many other potential delivery channels, instruments, and measures for enhancing the security of natural gas supplies at its disposal besides the southern gas transit corridor.