Sudan: Solomonic Carve-Up
By Georg-Sebastian Holzer for ISN
The oil-rich Abyei region, which straddles Sudan’s north-south border, is sometimes referred to as the country’s Kashmir. Its disputed status became a central stumbling block to the fragile 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) after the Sudanese government, led by the north’s National Congress Party, refused to accept the ruling of the Abyei Boundary Commission established by the peace accord’s Abyei Protocol.
external pageLast Wednesday’s ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague can be described as a Solomonic one; representatives from both north and south Sudan were able to declare themselves winners and officially external pagepledged to abide by the ruling. Nevertheless, the conflict at the local level in Abyei will be much more challenging to deal with - bearing with it potential for renewed conflict on a macro-level.
The CPA calls for a referendum on the independence of south Sudan in 2011. In that case, the people of Abyei would decide separately whether to join north Sudan or a newly independent south Sudan. But the 2005 deal left the borders of Abyei unclear, not least the possession of a major working oil field called Heglig. Hence there was a dispute over who would actually be allowed to vote in the referendum.
Apart from the apparent conflict over the oil wealth, there is second source of contention in the region. While the Ngok Dinka, a politically powerful nomadic tribe that considers itself southern, accounts for the majority of the population in Abyei, there is a significant minority of nomadic Arab groups, particularly the northern Misseriya nomads who migrate seasonally through the region. Both groups became politically polarized during the two civil wars. These sources of dispute already external pageled to open conflict last year.
The ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration has now external pageredrawn the boundaries of the region.
The government in the north was awarded control of the major oil fields in Abyei, with significant gains to the north, west and east of the region – regardless of the outcome in the referendum. The tribunal re-drew Abyei’s western border, including the strategically important railway town of Meiram, which now falls securely inside north Sudan. The region’s new eastern border also adds the key Heglig and Bamboo oilfields to the north, as well as a large strip of grazing land.
Despite the many gains to the north, the new boundaries have been drawn in a way that is also politically beneficial to the south. In effect, the decision preserves the bulk of the region that was defined as Abyei in 2005 as populated mainly by the Ngok Dinka, thereby most likely securing its secession to the south. This region includes Abyei town, huge areas of fertile land as well as the smaller working oil field Diffra, which is said to have a falling production. (Diffra, Bamboo and Heglig are part of a block of oil fields run by the Greater Nile Petroleum Operating Company,GNPOC, a consortium led by China's CNPC.)
If Abyei’s population would choose to join the south in a promised referendum under the CPA, this would indeed be a significant political and economic addition to such a new state as well as a symbolic victory for the Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) in its long fight over the north-south border.
Is this Solomonic decision now ground for optimism for peace in Sudan? Not inherently, as the devil is in the details. There is the open question of implementation. The question of who will be a resident of the north or south on the local level has a potential for conflict. In particular, the northern Misseriya nomads might interpret the new demarcation as a threat to their grazing lands.
While north and south can find their core interests secured by the outcome of this ruling, one should not forget that this decision occurred amid an atmosphere of mutual distrust and increased militarization on both sides. To uphold the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in the remaining year and a half before the south holds a referendum, a serious commitment from the Sudanese parties and the international community will be crucial.