Teenage Angst in Timor-Leste

Around 150,000 people are estimated to have died during the 24 years Jakarta put its jackboot to the Timorese throat. Out of a population of around 700,000 in 1974 when Portuguese colonial rule ended, this is perhaps the highest death toll per capita of any conflict anywhere since World War II.

With the anniversary looming, many activists and NGOs jumped at the opportunity to revive lobbying for justice and due process for past crimes. The government in Dili does not want to put this car on the road, preferring instead to maintain good relations with Indonesia, the now-amicable ex-invader to the north (and east, and west).

Both sides of this debate have merit, though perhaps not equal merit.

In a recent interview with ISN Security Watch in Dili, President Jose Ramos-Horta was bullish about the future:
"We will celebrate August 30 in a booming economy. Dili and the rest of country are at peace; the police and army are reconciled; and we are celebrating at a time when cooperation between Timor-Leste and Indonesia is at its best - no two countries on the planet have a better bilateral relationship."

East Timor has seen double-digit economic growth in the last two years - pretty spectacular given the downward global trend. However, much of this is down to a doubling of public spending - itself a controversial move - as the Timorese have been cautious about spending oil revenues, seeking to avoid the patronage-addled 'oil curse' that has destabilized countries across Africa.

Another issue that needs tackling is the perception that the country is an obscure, impoverished backwater. Dili needs to better market the country's amazing beaches, scenery and nature - all of which are unspoiled. The recent Tour de Timor bike race is a good start.

Ramos-Horta knows this. He told ISN Security Watch that they planned to kill two birds with one stone in the coming years - putting thousands of the country's unemployed to work on road projects - upgrading the ramshackle infrastructure which currently hinders any dynamic tourism potential.

Speaking to ISN Security Watch in Dili, World Bank officials concurred that the government needs to spend more on infrastructure.

Ramos-Horta and other senior administration officials agree that corruption is a major problem in Timor-Leste. Independence icon and prime minister Xanana Gusmao was caught up in a graft and procurement allegation recently - though the case has not been proven. Still, the opposition has jumped on the case, despite the fact that corruption, according to watchdog NGOs such as Transparency International, was just as bad under Gusmao’s predecessor.

But then, that's a sign that Dili now has a thriving democracy, with vigorous public debate. Less encouraging are lawsuits against local newspapers that have followed up on graft cases against other government ministers.

It is difficult to rate the progress in East Timor, now 10 years free. There is no quantitative benchmark by which a country coming out of 500 years of colonial rule and 24 years of violent occupation can measure itself, a decade into state-building.

It can be argued that the country remains over-reliant on international support, and that nobody knows what would happen if the international community left tomorrow, given that the country almost fell into civil war three years ago.

As Fernanda Borges, leader of the opposition PUN party, told ISN Security Watch in Dili, "sometimes the UN gives good advice, sometimes not. But then, sometimes we have not heeded or acted on the good advice. At the end of the day, it is up to us Timorese."

As Ramos-Horta has himself alluded, the international babysitting has not always been positive. Over $3 billion, perhaps even $5 billion, in aid has been spent on Timor in its first 10 years, but nobody knows how much has actually gone toward improving the lives of ordinary Timorese.

The UN mission will perhaps leave in 2012 or 2013, as Timor hits adolescence. So, looking forward, maybe all we can say for sure is, like the steep, winding byways leading out of Dili, Timor-Leste faces many twists on its climb to prosperity and stability.