Wrong Focus in Yemen

external pageThe Washington Post reported last weekcall_made that US Joint Special Operations Command forces had played a guiding role in raids conducted by Yemeni forces in the previous six weeks in which scores were killed and wounded, including six figures allegedly tied to al-Qaida.

US unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) deployments over Yemen external pagehave also reportedly been bolsteredcall_made since the 25 December Northwest Airlines bombing attempt. Washington is also said to be considering the establishment of a new aviation unit to aid Yemeni counterterrorism forces.

This expansion of extant defense ties runs the clear risk of exacerbating an already fraught situation on the ground in Yemen.

In particular, it hazards sundering the fragile web of relations through which President Ali Abdullah Saleh's government maintains power and plays a governance role in widespread areas of the country in which authority is shared with tribal and other groups.

There are strong indications that the government has made deals in the past with groups linked to al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula. An upswing in attacks on government targets and the alleged targeting of Saleh and his family indicates that, in at least some cases, these ties have been severed or made deeply problematic.

While the international focus remains on al-Qaida, the bolstering of military aid is likely to encourage government obduracy in unrelated security crises, notably, the prosecution of the war in the north against the al-Houthi and its response to rising secessionist tendencies in the south.

This is of particular importance in light of al-Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi's external pageceasefire offer on Saturdaycall_made.

Seemingly emboldened by Saudi and US support in what had been a delimited conflict until recent months, the government external pageswiftly rejected the al-Houthi offercall_made – a move that likely augurs a deepening of the crisis in the north.

The desperate plight of the refugees of this conflict, now thought to number over 250,000, should encourage direct foreign involvement, not in stoking the conflict through military support but in bringing about a viable settlement.

Above all, Yemen needs development aid to combat grinding deep-seated poverty that lies at the heart of the country's burgeoning security crises.

Last week's external pageLondon conference on Yemencall_made brought a Gulf Cooperation Council pledge to host a donors’ meeting in February.

However, dwindling oil stocks, the pitiable state of related domestic administrative structures and the alleged failure of donor states to deliver past pledges mean the country's socio-economic crisis is likely to intensify in coming years. 

Yemen also needs political reform that allows the expansion of civil freedoms, while combating rampant nepotism and endemic corruption. This has the potential to bring peripheral tribal and opposition movements into a rebuilt political system in a more meaningful way, thereby easing the crisis in the south.

Moves to this effect have been taken in recent years, with the active support of NGOs and institutes, but the mounting security crises have allowed the government to effectively stymie democratization with no repercussions.

While the challenges facing political reform and the fostering of mechanisms for effective development assistance are immense, the costs of the untenable status quo mean they bear hazarding.