Sarkisian to stay foreign policy course
By Simon Saradzhyan for ISN
"The character and potential of relations with Russia [...] are not limited to the region only, they have a strategic character due to Russia's role in ensuring Armenia's security, traditional friendly relations between Armenia and Russia, large-scale economic cooperation, Russia's role in solving the Karabakh conflict and the presence of a large Armenian Diaspora in Russia," Artak Zakarian, a member of the Council of the Republican Party, chaired by Sarkisian, told ISN Security Watch.
Armenia has actively participated in most Russian-led integration projects in post-Soviet space, including not only the loosely knit Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), but also the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which Moscow hopes will evolve into a full-fledged military bloc.
Russian guards patrol Armenia's border with Turkey and man the checkpoint at Armenia's main airport. Armenia hosts a 3,170-strong Russian military base, which has more than 400 tanks and APC's, S-300 air defense systems and 18 Mig-29 fighters, according to reports in the Russian press.
The CSTO grouping is in an apparent deterrent for Turkey, and this year has seen it organize the "Rubezh-2008" war games in Armenia during which the group's officers will simulate the joint repelling of aggression against one of their members by a neighboring state. The March 2007 war games sent a clear signal as to which side the Russian-led CSTO would take should a conflict flare up between Armenia and one of its neighbors such as Azerbaijan and Turkey.
In the sphere of economy, Russian state-controlled companies have also snapped up a number of key assets as either owners or operators in Armenia, including railways, telecommunications, energy generation and metal mining. Gazprom also co-owns the national gas distributor and has even acquired control of the gas pipeline from Iran to Armenia.
Russian investment in Armenia totaled about US$1 billion at the end of 2007, a year that saw trade between the countries top US$800 million, according to the Kremlin. The Armenian diaspora in Russia, which numbers more than one million, accounts for a sizeable portion of more than US$1 billion in annual private transfers sent into the republic, which had a budget of US$1.65 billion last year, a businessman close to the ruling elite, who asked not to be named, told ISN Security Watch.
But such a reliance is not excessive, both Zakarian and interviewed experts insist.
"What for?" Zakarian said when asked if Armenia should diversify away from Russia to cut its dependence on Moscow. "Russia is a strategic partner for Armenia and there is no reason for such diversification."
"Any attempt to diversify away from security arrangements with Russia would be detrimental to Armenian national interests," Arthur Martirosian, senior program manager at the Mercy Corps' Conflict Management Group, told ISN Security Watch.
"Armenia needs alternatives but only for a rainy day, i.e. for the unlikely scenario of Russia reneging on her security commitments or pulling out of the Caucasus entirely, but probabilities of that scenario are currently near zero," he said.
Azerbaijan and Turkey
Indeed, the land-locked republic has few options other than to rely on Russia, even though the two countries share no border. Of the countries with which Armenia does share a border, it has fought a war with Azerbaijan and has no diplomatic relations with Turkey.
Both Azerbaijan and Turkey have also blocked their borders with Armenia over the conflict in Nagorno Karabakh, where an ethnic Armenian majority first voted to secede from Azerbaijan to form a self-styled Nagorno Karabakh Republic (NKR) and then fought a war jointly with forces of Armenia proper against Azeri troops.
Relations with Turkey are also strained because Ankara has refused to recognize what massive organized killings of Armenians in Turkey in the early 20th century as genocide.
"The only things that can be done are undermining and weakening Turkey's current stance on closed borders. In addition, until Turkey comes to grips with its genocidal past, the impasse that is not in Turkey's interests will continue," Martirosian said.
While working to undermine the blockade maintained by Turkey and Azerbaijan, Sarkisian should be expected to continue negotiations over Nagorno Karabakh with Azeri President Ilham Aliev in talks mediated by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's (OSCE) Minsk group, which includes Russia.
But while committed to negotiations, Sarkisian will not concede to any deals that could bring this self-proclaimed republic, which has existed de facto independently for more than a decade, under the control of Azerbaijan, experts say.
Short of international recognition, NKR "enjoys all symbolic and substantive attributes of a nation state," Martirosian claimed. "No deal below that level of satisfaction is acceptable. If and when Azerbaijan shows readiness to accept that reality, NKR and Armenia should be ready to satisfy other Azerbaijani interests in exchange for a new security system and other necessary arrangements."
Oil-rich Azerbaijan - whose economy and defense expenditures are growing rapidly thanks to soaring fossil fuel prices - has repeatedly threatened to use force to try and retake control of both NKR and surrounding districts which Armenian forces seized in the course of the war, which ended with a ceasefire in 1993.
Both Sarkisian and his predecessor, Robert Kocharian, are natives of Nagorno Karabakh. When Kosovo unilaterally declared independence in February, Sarkisian hinted at the possibility that Armenia may recognize Kosovo in hopes of strengthening NKR's bid for international recognition. Speaking to students in Yerevan in March, Sarkisian said that recognition of Kosovo would not necessarily spoil Armenia's relations with Russia, which opposes it.
However, according to Martirosian, Armenia would be wise to refrain from recognizing an independent Kosovo.
"That kind of recognition would only make sense on a reciprocal basis, in return for Kosovo's recognition of NKR. But since that is not in the realm of possible choices, it should be ruled out and kept as a last resort means of putting an end to the negotiation process by a simultaneous recognition of Kosovo and NKR by Armenia," Martirosian said.
Armenia should also factor in Russia's game plan, which boils down to trying to prevent the accession of former Soviet republics to NATO, such as Georgia and Moldova, by raising the specter of recognizing self-proclaimed republics on their territory, according to Martirosian.
Azerbaijan is no longer pushing actively for NATO membership and, as such, the Russian leadership avoids mentioning NKR when listing self-proclaimed republics that Moscow may recognize in the wake of the Kosovo precedent.
Georgia, Iran the EU and NATO
While its two Turkic neighbors remain hostile, Armenia has enjoyed mutually beneficial ties with its other two neighbors - Georgia and Iran.
Cooperation with Iran has been facilitated by Tehran's perception of Armenia as a natural ally in countering the expansion of Turkey's influence in the region.
Another gateway for cooperation is interaction with such collective players as the EU and NATO as well as with the US, which is home to the second largest Armenian diaspora. And though Armenia is seeking membership in neither NATO nor the EU, it does participate actively in NATO's Partnership for Peace (PfP) program and the EU's New Neighborhood programs. It has also contributed troops to the US-led coalition in Iraq.
And though cooperating with NATO and the US, experts insist that Armenia should not seek membership in the alliance in the near future.
"Membership in military alliances is a means, not an end in itself. Armenia should cooperate with NATO and be ready for accession only if Russia pulls out of the South Caucasus," Martirosian said.
And like his predecessor, Sarkisian should continue to avoid keeping all his eggs in one, that is Russia's, basket, they say.
"The Armenia-Russia alliance on security has proved its viability and there is no sign why this cooperation should be changed. However, this doesn't mean that Armenia should refrain from cooperation with other countries and organizations for strengthening its security," Tevan Poghosyan, head of one of Armenia's leading NGO's, International Center for Human Development, told ISN Security Watch.
Urgent domestic issues
But while Sarkisian is planning no changes in Armenia's international posture, he must act urgently on the domestic front to address a number of serious challenges that may seriously threaten his rule, experts tell ISN Security Watch.
The domestic challenges that Sarkisian faces as the new leader of this nation of three million people are topped by the need to stabilize the republic in the wake of the post-electoral turmoil, followed by longer-term issues, such as overcoming public discontent with the dominance of politically connected oligarchs in the economy and putting an end to the sometimes arbitrary rule of regional bosses.
The public discontent's with the governance and lack of economic opportunities boiled over after Sarkisian's first-round victory in 19 February elections, when thousands of people hit the streets to protest what they claimed was a rigged vote and lament their lack of economic opportunities.