Thailand: Hurdles for new PM
By Barry Deely for ISN
As Thailand's new prime minister, Somchai Wongsawat, prepares to govern the country with a relatively new cabinet line-up, few would envy the task ahead of him given the turmoil the country has faced over the last three years.
Somchai was appointed Thailand's 26th prime minister last week after his predecessor, Samak Sundaravej, was disqualified from holding office following a court ruling which stated that he had violated the 2007 Constitution by accepting payments for hosting a TV cooking show while serving as prime minister.
Samak, a right-wing firebrand and self-declared proxy for Thaksin Shinawatra - Thailand's 23rd prime minister and Somchai's brother-in-law - formed the People Power Party (PPP) from the remnants of Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party, which was dissolved by Thailand's Constitutional Court in May 2007 for violating election laws.
However, Samak ran into trouble from the start with his rather frank public assessment of his selection to lead the PPP: "The military wanted to get rid of his [Thaksin's] party. They wanted not a single thing left over," Samak alleged. "I think that is unfair. So when he asked me, I said 'okay.'"
Former prime minister Thaksin had earlier gone into exile after being overthrown in a bloodless coup by a military junta in September 2006, following months of protests by the People's Alliance of Democracy (PAD). The PAD had launched mass demonstrations in January 2006 after Thaksin's tax-free sale of his telecommunication group, Shin Corp, to Singapore's state investment arm, Temasek Holdings.
The protests included the Bangkok middle classes, royalists, academics and pro-democracy activists concerned about Thaksin's autocratic ways and his challenge to traditional power-holders. They accused him of corruption, abuse of power, undermining Thailand's system of checks and balances and not respecting Thailand's revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej.
Thaksin and 111 TRT party executives were barred from political office for five years following the coup.
Meanwhile, the Thai economy has been hit by inflation and the separatist violence in the southern provinces, which has claimed more than 3,000 lives in the last four years, has continued unabated.
But before Somchai tackles any of these problems he must reach a compromise with the PAD, which has continued to occupy Government House, the official residence of the Thai prime minister, since its bid to oust Samak began in August.
"The political crisis in Bangkok is worrying for several reasons, including the risks it poses to Thailand's democracy and the rule of law," John Virgoe, Southeast Asia Project Director for International Crisis Group (ICG), told ISN Security Watch.
"It is also making it impossible for the government to focus on serious challenges, like the economy, the insurgency in the south, and Thailand's current chairmanship of ASEAN."
While the Constitutional Court disqualified Samak from office on 9 September, the PAD continues to demand that the entire government resign.
"Overthrowing the elected government - either by a coup or by street demonstrations - would be a severe blow to Thailand's democracy," said Rungrawee Chalermsripinyorat, ICG's Thailand Analyst. "It will do nothing to resolve the deep political polarization that is tearing Thailand apart," she told ISN Security Watch.
According to ICG's latest report on Thailand, the first priority of the government should be to restore the rule of law and the authority of elected officials - not because it is perfect, but for the sake of Thailand's stability and democracy. It also calls for negotiations between the military and PAD for the latter to end its occupation of the Government House.
Trouble in the south
While the government of former prime minister Samak struggled for political survival, it handed the military full responsibility for tackling the violent insurgency in the Muslim-dominated south, according to the ICG. However, the think tank says, the insurgents are "well established and hardened, are far from being defeated, and any military gains are costly."
"The 'sweeping operations' since June 2007 have involved the indiscriminate detention of thousands of suspected insurgents and sympathizers, and there are credible reports of torture of detainees," the ICG states, adding that the case of an imam beaten to death in military custody in March was widely condemned by human rights groups.
"The government has left southern policy entirely in the hands of the military. But the roots of that conflict are political, and political solutions are as important as improved security measures. The government needs to take back overall control of Southern policy - but this is hardly likely to happen while Bangkok remains locked in crisis. The longer the political angle is left unaddressed, however, the more intractable the conflict becomes," Virgoe explained.
Economic woes, family sagas
Questions remain about how different Somchai's cabinet and governing style will be compared to that of his predecessors and close allies, Samak and Thaksin. Many in Somchai's cabinet, like him, are former Thaksin insiders and observers are raising questions already about their suitability to govern.
Prime Minister Somchai said this week that reduced capital inflows and the US financial turmoil were having an impact on the Thai economy. According to the Thai Tourism Services Association, bad publicity from the political turmoil in Bangkok has caused international arrivals to drop by 70 percent. The Thai Hotels Association said that occupancy has fallen by 40 percent. Food, entertainment, souvenir, jewelry and handicraft businesses are also taking losses. Tourism is a crucial industry for Thailand. It accounts for about 6 percent of Thailand's gross domestic product totaling US$17 billion last year from more than 14 million foreign tourists.
Furthermore, Prime Minister Somchai, who is 61 years old, also has to deal with more than one family political complication, aside from being former prime minister Thaksin's brother-in-law. Prime Minister Somchai's wife, Yaowapa, was a Thai Rak Thai party-list MP, and a leader of the party's Wang Bua Baan faction, one of the most powerful factions of that time. She was also an adviser to her older brother, the then prime minister.
Last month, when the PPP was shaken to its core after 200 MPs signed up to demand the then prime minister Samak Sundaravej clarify the decision to let police issue an arrest warrant against Thaksin and his wife Khunying Pojaman, Yaowapa and her sister Yingluck appeared at the party headquarters. It took members of Thaksin's immediate family to summon respect from the MPs.
Prime Minister Somchai, however, has said that Yaowapa had nothing to do with politics as she just went to pay homage to the Buddha image at the headquarters.
Add to this the news that Senator Ruangkrai Leekijwattana is preparing to lodge a complaint with the National Counter Corruption Commission (NCCC) against Prime Minister Somchai's daughter Chinicha, a Chiang Mai MP, for allegedly failing to report her 100 million Thai baht worth of assets that have been frozen by the Assets Scrutiny Committee.
According to the senator, Chinicha claimed the assets in question had been borrowed from Bannapot Damapong, a stepbrother of Khunying Pojaman, wife of deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
While Prime Minister Somchai graduated from Thammasat University with a bachelor's degree in law, has served as a judge and the permanent secretary for justice, it's worth noting that Senator Ruangkrai Leekijwattana is the same senator who filed a lawsuit against former prime minister Samak, which resulted in him losing his job.
While Prime Minister Somchai, who previously served as deputy prime minister and education minister, will have to cope with many urgent problems his first act as prime minister has been to call for national reconciliation, a good start to what may be a battle for the future of democracy in Thailand.
"Thailand is often a bellwether for the state of democracy in the region, and the international community should be deeply concerned about a return to military or elite rule," said Virgoe. "Thailand's partners – and especially ASEAN countries – should convey a clear message that another coup would be unacceptable," Virgoe explained.
Prime Minister Somchai said this week he would like all Thais to join hands in seeking the best solution for the country, adding that he would uphold the rule of law and administer the country with honesty. There's a lot riding his ability to turn his words into actions.
Somchai was appointed Thailand's 26th prime minister last week after his predecessor, Samak Sundaravej, was disqualified from holding office following a court ruling which stated that he had violated the 2007 Constitution by accepting payments for hosting a TV cooking show while serving as prime minister.
Samak, a right-wing firebrand and self-declared proxy for Thaksin Shinawatra - Thailand's 23rd prime minister and Somchai's brother-in-law - formed the People Power Party (PPP) from the remnants of Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party, which was dissolved by Thailand's Constitutional Court in May 2007 for violating election laws.
However, Samak ran into trouble from the start with his rather frank public assessment of his selection to lead the PPP: "The military wanted to get rid of his [Thaksin's] party. They wanted not a single thing left over," Samak alleged. "I think that is unfair. So when he asked me, I said 'okay.'"
Former prime minister Thaksin had earlier gone into exile after being overthrown in a bloodless coup by a military junta in September 2006, following months of protests by the People's Alliance of Democracy (PAD). The PAD had launched mass demonstrations in January 2006 after Thaksin's tax-free sale of his telecommunication group, Shin Corp, to Singapore's state investment arm, Temasek Holdings.
The protests included the Bangkok middle classes, royalists, academics and pro-democracy activists concerned about Thaksin's autocratic ways and his challenge to traditional power-holders. They accused him of corruption, abuse of power, undermining Thailand's system of checks and balances and not respecting Thailand's revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej.
Thaksin and 111 TRT party executives were barred from political office for five years following the coup.
Meanwhile, the Thai economy has been hit by inflation and the separatist violence in the southern provinces, which has claimed more than 3,000 lives in the last four years, has continued unabated.
But before Somchai tackles any of these problems he must reach a compromise with the PAD, which has continued to occupy Government House, the official residence of the Thai prime minister, since its bid to oust Samak began in August.
"The political crisis in Bangkok is worrying for several reasons, including the risks it poses to Thailand's democracy and the rule of law," John Virgoe, Southeast Asia Project Director for International Crisis Group (ICG), told ISN Security Watch.
"It is also making it impossible for the government to focus on serious challenges, like the economy, the insurgency in the south, and Thailand's current chairmanship of ASEAN."
While the Constitutional Court disqualified Samak from office on 9 September, the PAD continues to demand that the entire government resign.
"Overthrowing the elected government - either by a coup or by street demonstrations - would be a severe blow to Thailand's democracy," said Rungrawee Chalermsripinyorat, ICG's Thailand Analyst. "It will do nothing to resolve the deep political polarization that is tearing Thailand apart," she told ISN Security Watch.
According to ICG's latest report on Thailand, the first priority of the government should be to restore the rule of law and the authority of elected officials - not because it is perfect, but for the sake of Thailand's stability and democracy. It also calls for negotiations between the military and PAD for the latter to end its occupation of the Government House.
Trouble in the south
While the government of former prime minister Samak struggled for political survival, it handed the military full responsibility for tackling the violent insurgency in the Muslim-dominated south, according to the ICG. However, the think tank says, the insurgents are "well established and hardened, are far from being defeated, and any military gains are costly."
"The 'sweeping operations' since June 2007 have involved the indiscriminate detention of thousands of suspected insurgents and sympathizers, and there are credible reports of torture of detainees," the ICG states, adding that the case of an imam beaten to death in military custody in March was widely condemned by human rights groups.
"The government has left southern policy entirely in the hands of the military. But the roots of that conflict are political, and political solutions are as important as improved security measures. The government needs to take back overall control of Southern policy - but this is hardly likely to happen while Bangkok remains locked in crisis. The longer the political angle is left unaddressed, however, the more intractable the conflict becomes," Virgoe explained.
Economic woes, family sagas
Questions remain about how different Somchai's cabinet and governing style will be compared to that of his predecessors and close allies, Samak and Thaksin. Many in Somchai's cabinet, like him, are former Thaksin insiders and observers are raising questions already about their suitability to govern.
Prime Minister Somchai said this week that reduced capital inflows and the US financial turmoil were having an impact on the Thai economy. According to the Thai Tourism Services Association, bad publicity from the political turmoil in Bangkok has caused international arrivals to drop by 70 percent. The Thai Hotels Association said that occupancy has fallen by 40 percent. Food, entertainment, souvenir, jewelry and handicraft businesses are also taking losses. Tourism is a crucial industry for Thailand. It accounts for about 6 percent of Thailand's gross domestic product totaling US$17 billion last year from more than 14 million foreign tourists.
Furthermore, Prime Minister Somchai, who is 61 years old, also has to deal with more than one family political complication, aside from being former prime minister Thaksin's brother-in-law. Prime Minister Somchai's wife, Yaowapa, was a Thai Rak Thai party-list MP, and a leader of the party's Wang Bua Baan faction, one of the most powerful factions of that time. She was also an adviser to her older brother, the then prime minister.
Last month, when the PPP was shaken to its core after 200 MPs signed up to demand the then prime minister Samak Sundaravej clarify the decision to let police issue an arrest warrant against Thaksin and his wife Khunying Pojaman, Yaowapa and her sister Yingluck appeared at the party headquarters. It took members of Thaksin's immediate family to summon respect from the MPs.
Prime Minister Somchai, however, has said that Yaowapa had nothing to do with politics as she just went to pay homage to the Buddha image at the headquarters.
Add to this the news that Senator Ruangkrai Leekijwattana is preparing to lodge a complaint with the National Counter Corruption Commission (NCCC) against Prime Minister Somchai's daughter Chinicha, a Chiang Mai MP, for allegedly failing to report her 100 million Thai baht worth of assets that have been frozen by the Assets Scrutiny Committee.
According to the senator, Chinicha claimed the assets in question had been borrowed from Bannapot Damapong, a stepbrother of Khunying Pojaman, wife of deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
While Prime Minister Somchai graduated from Thammasat University with a bachelor's degree in law, has served as a judge and the permanent secretary for justice, it's worth noting that Senator Ruangkrai Leekijwattana is the same senator who filed a lawsuit against former prime minister Samak, which resulted in him losing his job.
While Prime Minister Somchai, who previously served as deputy prime minister and education minister, will have to cope with many urgent problems his first act as prime minister has been to call for national reconciliation, a good start to what may be a battle for the future of democracy in Thailand.
"Thailand is often a bellwether for the state of democracy in the region, and the international community should be deeply concerned about a return to military or elite rule," said Virgoe. "Thailand's partners – and especially ASEAN countries – should convey a clear message that another coup would be unacceptable," Virgoe explained.
Prime Minister Somchai said this week he would like all Thais to join hands in seeking the best solution for the country, adding that he would uphold the rule of law and administer the country with honesty. There's a lot riding his ability to turn his words into actions.