Pakistan: Waiting with bated breath

Pakistan, a nuclear armed state of 170 million, is facing a virtual meltdown and its political leadership seems utterly incapable of steering the country through the present mess. The international community has few levers left that might have any significant impact on the course of events. And so everyone is just waiting with bated breath for events to unfold in what is probably the worst crisis in Pakistan's troubled history.

In an attempt to mobilize the Pakistani public against extremism, President Asif Ali Zardari called a special session of the Parliament to debate the best possible means of fighting the growing Taliban and al-Qaida menace. However, the debate ended up exposing the fissures in the Pakistani polity when it comes to countering extremism.

There was widespread support for negotiations with the Taliban even as operations in the tribal areas being undertaken by the Pakistani military came under strong criticism. The leader of the Pakistan Muslim League, N Nawaz Sharif, openly called for a dialogue with the militants in a letter he sent to the prime minister, further undermining the position of Zardari who had promised Washington just days earlier that Pakistan's fight against terrorism would be his top priority.

The opposition to fighting the militants remains substantial, making it almost impossible for Zardari and his Pakistan People's Party (PPP) to engineer a broader national policy.

The Pakistani military commenced its operations against the Taliban and al-Qaida backers in the tribal areas around two months ago, receiving some limited praise from the American commanders. But it would like to have broader political support for its military operations.

As such, the director-general of military operations for the Pakistani army, Lieutenant-General Ahmed Shuja Pasha, went before the joint session of the Parliament to apprise the lawmakers of the military's campaigns against the militants. However the sense that Pakistan was fighting America's war was all pervasive. After two weeks of in-camera discussions, Pakistan's parliament adopted a unanimous resolution that called for an "urgent review" of the national security strategy based on an "independent foreign policy" and stressed the need for dialogue with "elements" willing to abide by the constitution and the rule of law.

The debate failed to provide any clarity of Pakistan's dangerously deteriorating internal security situation, with the political parties divided even on the nature of the challenge that Pakistan is facing. The opposition continued to charge the ruling PPP of toeing the US line, while the PPP itself failed to provide the necessary leadership in formulating a consensual policy to deal with the rising extremism.

Meanwhile, finding the fight against the Taliban more difficult than expected, the Pakistani army is now relying on the tribal militias to take on the Taliban fighters and share some of the burden. These tribesmen are also taking a more active role as they would like to keep the Pakistani army away from their areas. But in the process they have become caught in the crossfire between the Taliban and the military. The Taliban has increased its attacks on tribal leaders and their supporters even as the Pakistani army has been less than supportive in providing them the resources necessary to fight effectively.

The Bush administration remains unconvinced of Pakistan's commitment to fighting the Taliban, al-Qaida and other extremist groups. In the last few months, US-led forces in Afghanistan have frequently struck targets in the Pakistan-Afghanistan border region with missiles and even used Special Operations Forces to stem cross-border attacks on coalition forces in Afghanistan. Pakistan also has in recent weeks allowed US military trainers to provide counterinsurgency instruction to Pakistani soldiers. But in the absence of ameliorative political and economic measures, a purely military approach will not be enough to stem the growth of extremism in the tribal areas.

Pakistan's political leadership has little time on its hands, consumed as it is with the economic crisis facing the nation. Pakistan's forex reserves are reportedly just enough to cover payments for imports for just about two months, and the currency has plummeted to a new low. Prices of essential commodities are rising with the possibility that this might lead to large-scale unrest. A balance of payments crisis is in the offing, forcing Pakistan to turn to the IMF in order to avoid defaulting on its loans.

Pakistan's precarious economic situation will only compound an already unstable political condition and create further complications for the fight against extremism.

Facing the prospect of defaulting on its current account payments, Zardari sought aid from China during his visit to Beijing. Instead of pledging to shore up the Pakistani economy, China promised only to help build two nuclear power plants and to invest more in Pakistan in the future.

With the US and Europe facing financial turmoil and China sitting atop US$2 trillion in foreign reserves, Pakistan found itself gravitating toward Beijing for emergency assistance. Help has also been sought from Saudi Arabia so that Pakistan can be granted concessionary terms for its oil imports, but so far a favorable response has eluded Islamabad.

The Chinese seem to be in no mood to bail Pakistan out of its economic woes. Chinese investments in Pakistan are becoming a casualty of the deteriorating security situation and the ability of Pakistan to manage its economy is in serious doubt. The IMF estimates that Pakistan needs about US$15 billion over the next three years and the western nations are not prepared to funnel aid in the absence of economic reform measures. Yet, going to the IMF would be considered only if financial institutions such as the ADB and the World Bank fail to help and if "friends of Pakistan" fail to deliver the required amount.

Over the past seven years, Pakistan has received more than US$10 billion in aid from the US, ostensibly for counterterrorism operations, but has failed to build up its institutional capabilities as it ended up diverting a huge proportion of that aid to acquire military hardware suited for conventional warfare vis-à-vis India.

The underlying fragility of the state's basic institutions will continue to haunt Pakistan and with it the entire region as well as the West's war on Islamist extremism. Pakistan's return to democracy remains tenuous and the authority of the government is weakening by the day.

The state institutions - the civilian government as well as the military - seem unwilling to acknowledge the obvious - that the threat of extremism that is haunting the very survival of Pakistan today is the outcome of the country's long-running use of jihadist terror as an instrument of foreign policy. Use of Islamist extremist mobilization and terrorism for domestic political purposes as well as for projecting Pakistan's ambitions in its neighborhood has ended up costing the nation dearly.

Pakistan is no longer failing, it is already a failed state. The sooner this is recognized, the better, for it will enable the international community to recalibrate its existing approach toward a nation that is, once again, "standing in the middle of the road between survival and disintegration."