Russia Plays the Iran Card
By Sergei Blagov for ISN
In what could be seen as a possible willingness to work with the Obama administration on the tricky issue of Iran, Russia seems to be testing its power of influence with the Islamic Republic through off-again, on-again nuclear power and weapons sales agreements.
Russia hinted earlier this month that it was freezing anti-missile sales to Iran in an apparent bid to convince the new US administration not to pursue its predecessor's plans to deploy missile defense facilities in Eastern Europe. Simultaneously, Moscow moved to raise the stakes in the Middle East by helping Iran test its first nuclear power plant.
Earlier this week, Iranian and Russian nuclear officials inaugurated a test run at Iran’s much-delayed nuclear power plant in the southwestern city of Bushehr. On 25 February, Russian engineers initiated pre-conditioning tests using dummy fuel rods. After the launch, Sergei Kiriyenko, head of the Russian nuclear agency Rosatom, indicated that Moscow and Tehran had discussed a previously signed 10-year nuclear fuel supply deal.
Signed in January 1995, the US$1 billion Bushehr contract stipulates that Russia supplies one VVER-1000 reactor, provides training to Iranian specialists and delivers nuclear fuel for the reactor. In recent years, Iranian officials suggested that Russia could become a partner in lucrative projects to build 20 nuclear power stations in Iran. Bushehr was originally expected to go online in 2006, but Russia repeatedly delayed the launch, citing financial disagreements.
Russian officials insist that Iran has no chance to use the spent nuclear fuel from the Russian-built Bushehr to enrich uranium. They also argue that fuel deliveries are under full control of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the spent fuel would be returned to Russia from Bushehr for reprocessing and storage.
However, the test run of the Bushehr nuclear plant inevitably raised concerns in the West over Tehran's nuclear ambitions. The test apparently served to further tensions in the volatile Middle East, with Israel indicating it would not rule out any option against an Iranian nuclear program. Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak external pagestated after the test that Israel would "stop at nothing" to deny Iran’s development of nuclear weapons.
Nonetheless, Russia reiterates its determination to continue cooperation with Iran. On 16 February, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabov said that Moscow does not intend to toughen its policy toward Iran regarding its nuclear program. But he also voiced hope that progress on the Iranian nuclear issue would entail progress in talks with the US on missile defense, which is officially designed to counter Iran's perceived threat.
Incidentally, the Russian-aided test run came while Moscow waits on the US to deliver on pledges to "press reset" on ties between the two. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has welcomed US signals to review a missile defense shield in Eastern Europe as well as plans to seek new approaches toward Tehran. However, Lavrov reiterated that Russia would not support tougher sanctions against Tehran.
Reflecting the back-and-forth relationship, Iranian Defense Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar visited Russia this month in an apparent bid to lobby Moscow for new missiles to arm air defense forces. Meanwhile, Moscow has reportedly frozen its sale of the S300 anti-missile defense system to the Islamic Republic.
The S300 missile complex is seen as a significant supplement to the combat ability of any air defense force. According to manufacturing specifications, the S300 has anti-stealth capability and can shoot down combat aircraft and cruise missiles as well as ballistic missiles in an ABM mode. The contract was reportedly signed in 2005, with delivery expected last year.
Washington has repeatedly urged Moscow to cut military sales to Iran. Despite western concerns, Moscow has insisted it will sell weapons to any country that has not violated international regulations, including Iran.
Although Russia held back on the Iran missile contract, the Islamic Republic praised its military ties with Moscow, saying it still hopes to obtain new weapons. According to Najjar, US efforts to strike a deal with the Kremlin over the missile shield in Europe have no bearing on their relationship.
Tehran is reportedly interested in acquiring long-range air defense missiles, ground-to-ground missiles and Sukhoi-27 fighter jets. It is also said to be keen to buy anti-ship missile systems in order to control crucial sea routes in the Persian Gulf. Iranian officials indicate that Russia could earn up to US$7 billion by resuming full-scale military cooperation with Iran. However, these deals have never materialized as Russia is reluctant to antagonize the West.
Some Russian experts argue that Moscow should not rush selling arms to Tehran: Iran's firing of a long-range Safir-2 missile to place a satellite in orbit created the justification for Washington's missile shield plans. Iran's maneuverings adversely affected Russian interests.
The Kremlin now appears to be simultaneously pursuing divergent policies: helping Iran's nuclear program and holding back on arms sales to Tehran. It remains to be seen whether Moscow's contradictory signals on Iran could help to reset ties with the US.