Lebanon: Court Decision Reverberates
By Dominic Moran for ISN
The decision by a special UN tribunal to order the freeing of the only four detainees held in relation to a series of deadly strikes on Lebanese opponents of Syria comes at an inopportune time for the country's anti-Syrian political factions. It also has wider implications for international moves to rehabilitate Damascus.
The future utility of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) is in serious question after it recommended the release of four Lebanese generals, held on suspicion of involvement in the murder of former premier Rafik al-Hariri and 22 others on 14 February 2005, citing insufficient evidence.
The creation of the STL appeared to provide the basis for bringing to justice those responsible for the atrocity and - through the demonstration of connections - a series of murders of anti-Syrian political and media figures and two security service officers, but this function must now be in serious doubt.
It is true that the decision bolsters the integrity of the tribunal as a neutral arbiter, but its impact on popular and political trust in its capacity to bring to justice those responsible for the killings is likely to be substantial and profoundly damaging.
Unless unforeseen indictments eventuate, the important external pageprecedents set in the establishment of what is the first tribunal to feature the partial incorporation of national law and trial in absentia in UN prosecutions will be squandered.
The STL ruling has placed considerable pressure on the Lebanese judiciary, responsible for the extended detention of the generals. The four had been held without charge since August 2005, with the judiciary and previous rump anti-Syrian March 14 government clearly seeking their prosecution overseas given the volatile political and security situation in Lebanon.
Hizbollah reportedly plans a sit-in in front of the Justice Ministry and is directly external pagetargeting the two Lebanese judges involved in the case, Saqr Saqr and Said Mirza.
The future role, if any, of the four generals in the Lebanese security services, which is being rebuilt with US sponsorship, will be of particular interest in charting the willingness of the Obama administration to carry through on its pledge not to forsake its political allies in Lebanon; this, given that Syria controlled Lebanese military appointments before 2005. One of the officers, former security services director Jamil Sayyed external pageplans a comeback.
Their release is a major blow to the March 14 bloc as it campaigns ahead of next month's national elections. Future movement and March 14 leader Saad al-Hariri external pageaccused Syria of plotting a return to Lebanon following the generals' emancipation, pointing to what he claimed were threats from Syrian allies.
The STL decision also has repercussions for competing regional powers which are providing extraordinary sums to bankroll associated political blocs in the Lebanese election campaign.
In particular, the ruling is a blow for the Saudis. Riyadh has played a key role in funding the establishment of the tribunal and in providing massive financial backing for the post-2006 Hizbollah-Israel conflict rebuilding effort and Lebanese economy in direct competition with Iran.
The release of the quartet will have been met with profound relief in Damascus, which has a great deal to lose through the demonstration of official complicity in the al-Hariri assassination.
Then UN probe head Detlev Mehlis accused high-level Lebanese and Syrian figures of involvement in interim probe reports in late 2005. However, the UN investigation has not released any further corroborating details of Syrian links to the al-Hariri plot and other murders.
Speaking to Frankfurter Allgemeine, Mehlis external pageresponded to the court ruling by saying: "This could send the tribunal into oblivion."
Concerns also remain regarding the manner in which the STL decision was made. The STL prosecutor Daniel Bellemare had asked for an extension of the 27 April court deadline to go through the screeds of material provided by the Lebanese on 10 April and was reportedly turned down by the court. Whether an extended period for preparing the case against the generals would have resulted in prosecutions remains moot.
It is clear that the diplomatic and strategic utility of the STL to European powers and the US has faded since its inception. Coming months will likely see the US return its ambassador to Damascus for the first time since Washington broke off bilateral diplomatic ties in the wake of the al-Hariri murder. This is a further sign that momentum is building toward the full rehabilitation of Syria on the international stage.
Such moves are of considerable concern to Cairo and Riyadh in light of the regional contest for influence. The Saudis, sensing which way the wind is blowing, have sought in recent months to warm frigid relations with Syria, which have been profoundly damaged through the countries' ongoing struggle for influence in Lebanon.
The price of all this is the reinvigoration of Syrian influence in its smaller neighbor, and wider acknowledgement of the shift in power achieved by Hizbollah and allies in the May 2008 armed conflict.
It appears likely that the STL decision not to prosecute the generals and progressive retrenchment of Syrian interests will have a positive impact on the electoral performance of the allied March 8 coalition. However, Hizbollah's resort to arms against fellow Lebanese and Saudi Arabia's extensive funding of the Future Movement and others Syrian opponents may counter this rise in influence to some extent.
Regardless, any change through the Lebanese elections will be nominal, with the result almost certain to be a return to unity government, whether with a pro or anti-Syrian majority. The best that can be hoped for is probably a period of quiet and relative stability that could have a positive impact through promoting improved governance, national dialogue and the wider international rehabilitation of Syria.
Here, the STL decision effectively draws a line under Syrian involvement in Lebanese political assassinations, in lieu of unexpected revelations. Those responsible now look unlikely to face justice.