Publication

This article outlines three reasons why China might now be more willing to intervene militarily in North Korea following regime collapse in Pyongyang or the outbreak of war on the Korean Peninsula. These relate to 1) the potential influx of refugees from North Korea that could flow into China; 2) concerns about cross-border pollution that could result from a strike against North Korea’s nuclear facilities by the US or its allies; and 3) Beijing’s ability to influence the outcome of a crisis in North Korea. The author also reviews what the potential shift in Beijing’s policy towards Pyongyang means for Washington’s efforts to coordinate contingency plans with China.