Publication

This publication analyzes the implications of US National Security Adviser John Bolton’s 5 May 2019 announcement that the US will deploy the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group and a bomber task force to the Persian Gulf area. Key insights include 1) that as a response, Iran has resolved to reduce the direct confrontation with the US while preparing quietly for the forthcoming struggle for the greater Middle East; 2) these preparations are in accordance with a long-term doctrine adopted in early 2019; 3) though there is no question of Iran curtailing its efforts to bolster its regional position in the face of the US-Israeli opposition, Tehran is still apprehensive about the economic impact of the crisis on its population, and more.