Sound the Alarm! Updating Beliefs and Degradative Cyber Operations

Author(s): Miguel Alberto N Gomez
Journal Title: European Journal of International Security
Pages: 19
Publisher(s): Cambridge University Press
Publication Year: 2019
Publication Place: Cambridge

Recent studies show that cyber operations rarely translate into strategic gains. Nonetheless, they are often framed as existential threats, involve salient disputes between rivals and are attributed to state or state-associated actors even in the absence of definitive evidence. Why do states exaggerate cyber threats? Why are they prone to misattribute cyber operations? This study argues that this stems from decision-makers’ pre-existing beliefs that are shaped by established rivalry interactions, the responsibilities assigned to decision-makers, and the cognitive load required to process available information. National cybersecurity organizations should thus invest in technologies and processes that minimize a dependence on fast – but possibly flawed – cognitive short-cuts.

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