Backing Ahmadinejad

This year's election season in Iran, now in full swing, has experienced many surprising political twists and turns, but perhaps the greatest surprise of all is the enthusiastic support Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is offering President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as he makes a bid for a second term in office.

"This is unprecedented in the annals of the Islamic Republic," one veteran Iranian journalist and political observer commented for ISN Security Watch. "Never has Mr Khamenei openly endorsed a candidate in a presidential race before. Never."

Even before Khamenei, the late Ayatollah Khomeini had refrained from openly taking sides in elections. "They both stayed above the factional fray," added the journalist, who asked not to be named.

Signs

The first sign that the Supreme Leader was endorsing Ahmadinejad for a second term came on 24 August. Speaking to the president and his cabinet on the occasion of so-called Government Week, he said: "Imagine that in addition to this year, another four years will be under your management [...] plan accordingly."

Three months later, he sharply criticized Ahmadinejad's detractors for "blackening" the government's record. "This unbridled atmosphere of denigration [against the government] is not something that can be forgiven by God easily," he said on 6 November.

Then, on 14 December, he appeared to compare the reformist presidential hopeful, Mohammad Khatami, with a weak and despised Persian king. Later, in a meeting with the members of the Assembly of Experts, he extolled the government's record, calling it "far above normal" and even "beyond belief." In the same meeting, he said some of Ahmadinejad's critics had a "wicked will" and a "negative, small-minded and fear-addled viewpoint." 

Force multipliers

Lately, as election day approaches, the spate of Supreme Leader blanket endorsements for Ahmadinejad has multiplied. In the last two weeks alone, Ayatollah Khamenei has on four separate occasions come to the defense of the president. At one point, he railed against those critics that he said were engaged in “misleading the public."

"I know much more than these gentlemen about the state of the country. I know that much of what these people are saying about the state of the nation and the economy is flat false. They are just mistaken," he stated.

The vehemence with which Ayatollah Khamenei has supported an Ahmadinejad’s re-election bid has kept scores of potential presidential contenders, all with conservative leanings, from entering the race. Some of these would-be contenders - such as Tehran Mayor Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and dismissed interior minister Mostafa Pourmohammadi - had even put together an embryonic organizational structure for the campaign. Many of them bowed out reluctantly out of respect for the Supreme Leader's wish, while others saw Ahmadinejad’s re-election as a foregone conclusion.

Rogue elephant among the elite

The Supreme Leader's decision to back Ahmadinejad is all the more surprising since the incumbent president is widely considered as something of a rogue elephant among the elite. His erratic leadership style, his economic ignorance and his highly tendentious view of the world have caused considerable distress among clerical and civilian circles.

For instance, in recent days, the two key clerical groupings in Iran - the Association of the Combatant Clergy and the Association of Qum's Theological Teachers - have both witnessed unprecedented rifts within their ranks, all caused by the contentious issue of Ahmadinejad’s re-election.

Supreme risk

The question to ponder is why has Ayatollah Khamenei, whose unrivaled status partly derives from the proof of his political acumen and his perceived even-handedness, has risked all on someone like Ahmadinejad, whose every wrong move can now come back to haunt the ayatollah.

The Supreme Leader himself has not indicated why he has chosen this strategy. 

However, a careful compilation of Ayatollah Khamenei's words of praise for the government shows that a majority of these are centered on three main traits: Ahmadinejad's supposed egalitarian ethos, his pride in and flaunting of his Islamic roots, and his steadfastness in foreign policy concerns, with a stronger focus on the latter.

Mehdi Koochakzad, a leader of the parliament's pro-Ahmadinejad faction, the Islamic Revolution Bloc, told the hard-line newspaper Yalesarat recently that he thought the Supreme Leader's main praise of Ahmadinejad was related to the latter's foreign policy assertiveness.

A well-known far right ideologue agrees with this sentiment in a 24 May interview given to the Vatan Emrouz newspaper, which is run by an associate of Ahmadinejad. In a very long interview, former Revolutionary Guards member Hassan Abassi, who heads the Center for Doctrinal Analysis, offers a theoretical and ideological foundation for the Islamic Republic's foreign policy assertiveness in the new century. Claiming that this century will see "the fall of the American Empire and other idols," Abassi opines that the Islamic Republic should offer to the world an alternative model – a model idea he claims both Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader fully share.  

But this begs yet another question: Why is Ahmadinejad deemed a superior candidate for conducting an assertive foreign policy when there are at least a dozen more competent individuals with strong conservative credentials who could have fit the bill? 

There are several reasons for this. The first is that although all the other candidates would have been strongly attentive to the Supreme Leader's wishes and directives, they would not have been beholden to him or slavish in their obedience. Before becoming president, Ahmadinejad was first an obscure governor from a small state and then mayor of Tehran, neither occupation being considered heavyweight. Therefore, as a national figure, he owes his entire power and prestige to Ayatollah Khamenei, whose pivotal decision to back him in June 2005 led to his disciple’s meteoric rise. This cannot be said of the other men who have all come into prominence independent of the Supreme Leader's support.

Second, over the last four years, Ahmadinejad has built an impressive constituency among young Muslim militants, which can be put to use in times of great emergency.

Third, the Supreme Leader is said to fear a breakdown of talks with the 5+1 Group (France, Britain, China, Russia and the US, plus Germany) and the Obama administration over the nuclear issue, which would almost certainly result in a deterioration of relations with the outside world. Clearly, in such an eventuality, only a bold and fearless leader would do to help steer the country in turbulent times.