Sudan: Keeping a Clinched Fist
By Claudio Guler for ISN
Khartoum’s 4 March expulsion of 13 private international aid agencies in retaliation for the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) arrest warrant for Sudanese President Omar Hassan Ahmad al-Bashir has left a significant aid gap in its wake. With the rainy season fast approaching, humanitarian circumstances in Darfur stand to deteriorate.
The expulsion likely secured diplomatic leverage for Bashir, mostly in delaying the peace process. But observers note that it also showcased callous disregard and did little to demonstrate willingness to pursue peace in Darfur. Speaking in Cairo on Thursday, US President Barack Obama described the Darfur conflict as “a stain on our collective conscience.”
In an attempt to put the peace process back on track, the US is pressing diplomacy. It has yielded limited results and holds out hope for more, but Darfuris are unlikely to emerge unscathed.
Ejected agencies expect the worst
The expulsion targeted aid agencies in Northern Sudan and Darfur only, sparing operations in Southern Sudan. Melissa Winkler, communications director for the International Rescue Committee (IRC), one of the expelled aid agencies, told ISN Security Watch, “The aid agencies expelled carried out an estimated 60 percent of aid operations in Darfur.” The UN reckons the sustenance of one million people or more is on the line. Filling the aid gap will not be easy.
Disease, more so than food and water, is now the chief humanitarian concern. The rainy season, which spans June to September, typically increases the incidence of water-borne diseases such as malaria, cholera and diarrhea. This year, with the aid agencies absent, tasks such as servicing latrines may go unattended, enabling the spread of disease.
The UN’s World Food Program (WFP) and external pageWorld Vision – a Christian humanitarian charity organization – among others, have stepped up operations to get food and water to those affected by the NGO expulsion. On 15 March, WFP external pagedistributed two-month of food rations. These are now nearing depletion and any efforts to distribute supplies since have been ad-hoc. Khartoum insists that it alone will compensate for the aid gap.
external pageAlun McDonald, regional media and communications officer for the Horn, East and Central Africa for Oxfam UK – also one of the expelled aid agencies – told ISN Security Watch in a recent telephone interview, “The longer it drags on, the worse it could potentially get. I don’t think there’ll be a sort of tipping point, unless the rainy season brings on an outbreak of disease. Over time it will gradually get worse.”
On 6 May, Khartoum announced itself willing to admit "new" aid agencies. However, no convincing word of such developments has been reported. Sudan, moreover, is a difficult country to work in; Khartoum confiscated all of the expelled aid agencies’ assets before showing their personnel the door.
McDonald elaborated: “Working in Darfur is extremely difficult, given the security situation. It’s even more difficult because it takes a lot of paperwork and negotiations with the government [to set up operations].” In 2004 and 2007, the Sudanese government signed agreements pledging to ease restrictions for aid agencies, but he claims that “not much of that was ever really implemented.”
In deciding which aid agencies to expel, Khartoum settled on high-profile, western organizations from the US, the UK and France, accusing them of colluding with the ICC. The reasoning fits well with Bashir’s repeated characterization of the ICC as an arm of western imperialism. An aid worker who spoke to ISN Security Watch on condition of anonymity adds, “There is a feeling that some of the expelled agencies are among the more outspoken ones, or ones that have been involved in sensitive work, around victims of sexual abuse and mental health.”
Pushing diplomacy
The US and Qatar have spearheaded diplomatic efforts to advance the enervated Darfur peace process. Qatar is providing the forum. The US, represented by Special Envoy Scott Gration, has spent the past two months urging stakeholders to the table.
Gration traveled to Sudan in April and May. He returned from his initial trip in April calling for closer US-Sudanese relations, reasoning this was the best way forward. His exertions, moreover, likely convinced Bashir to permit the remaining aid agencies to step up their activities and fill some of the aid gap.
The special envoy also external pagevisited China, Qatar, the UK and France in May and June. His trip to China – Khartoum’s most influential ally – produced some mildly auspicious results. Foreign Ministry spokesman Ma Zhaoxu external pageannounced to reporters on 26 May that China was ready to work with the US to “promote settlement” of the Darfur conflict. On 28 May, China’s envoy to Sudan, Ambassador Liu Guijin, external pagemet with members of the Darfur rebel group Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) for the first time in Qatar.
Just yesterday, the US external pageannounced it would host a peace conference on 23 June to assess implementation of the 2005 North-South Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), hoping to use the occasion as a stepping stone to reinvigorate the Darfur peace process.
Following in the footsteps of US Senator John Kerry (D-MA), who visited Sudan back in April, Senators Johnny Isakson (R-GA) and Bob Corker (R-TN) external pagetraveled to Sudan from 25 to 27 May. They too returned expressing optimism. Yet on 26 May, the UK paper The Independent reported Bashir external pagelashing out at the aid agencies once again, this time accusing them of fomenting regime change.
Khartoum resists engagement
In his inauguration speech in January, Obama offered some of the world’s more unsavory regimes a compromise: “Unclench your fist, and the US will extend you a hand.”
Sudan is testing the limits of this approach. The US has engaged, but Khartoum has been reluctant to reciprocate, particularly concerning the critical, humanitarian issue of the expelled aid agencies. Readmission would serve as an olive branch in Khartoum’s pursuit of warmer US-Sudanese relations and do much to help Darfuris.
On Friday in New York, chief prosecutor of the ICC, Louis Moreno-Ocampo, will address the UN Security Council in his biannual report. He has, as of late, external pageargued that ICC judges would soon approve a genocide charge for Bashir.