Missile Defense: Worth the Wait

Despite recent “rogue state” missile tests, the Obama administration is still sitting on missile defense shield plans for Central Europe, waiting, with wisdom, Jeremy Druker comments for ISN Security Watch.

The recent missile tests by North Korea and Iran would have been an easy excuse for the Obama administration to fast forward Bush-era plans for an ambitious anti-missile defense shield to protect the US and Europe from attacks by “rogue states.” But Washington appears to be sticking to its original intention of reassessing that strategy, and, with each passing week, the wait-and-see approach seems the wisest one.

Key to any decision appears to be the desire for a more constructive relationship with Russia. Moscow has long opposed plans to station parts of the shield in the Czech Republic and Poland, its former satellites, and has claimed that one of the project’s real aims is to contain Russia.

A report released by the EastWest Institute (EWI) last month favors patience. A group of US and Russian scientists and defense experts argue that Iran won’t have the capability to launch a nuclear missile attack on Europe for many years, perhaps as much as a decade.

While that is a risky prediction to make, the report’s other assertions - that Iran would have to be suicidal to even contemplate such an attack, knowing the response, and that the missile system should be constructed with Russian assistance - already make a lot of sense.

As supporters of teaming up with Moscow on missile defense have argued, a regime such as Iran or North Korea would have to be doubly insane to also attack radar sites in Russia and invite a massive retaliation.

On top of that, the Russians continue to link the conclusion of a new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) with the anti-missile defense shield. The two sides seemed to make progress during the latest round of talks, which finished up 3 June, and there was even talk of an outline deal being ready in time for Obama’s visit to Moscow in early July.

It would be hard to believe that Washington would promise the Russians anything more than to postpone the decision about the shield at this point. But even that would be a significant move that would clarify the current administration’s thinking.

Some Republican lawmakers (who have already complained about recent cuts to the missile defense budget) , the defense establishment and politicians in Central Europe (who had invested so much capital in concluding unpopular Bush-era deals) will surely complain. They will rail about the latest missile tests and the embarrassment of letting an old Cold War enemy help dictate policy. 

Other critics, including many Democrats, will raise questions about whether Washington should plunge into such a close defensive partnership with a country as undemocratic as Russia.

Fair points, many of them, but the administration will need to make clear that the potential payoff of a new START deal - and maybe even a more effective missile shield down the line - would be worth the wait. 

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