Tehran: Days of Rage

Today, 15 June, may be a decisive day for Iran's nascent democratic movement. Mir-Hossein Mousavi has called on his supporters to attend a peaceful march, which he has also promised to attend – and this event may be the catalyzing one for which everyone has been waiting anxiously. 

15 June, 10 am

Tehran is a transformed city. For the first time in almost 30 years, the residents of the capital feel like free citizens. This is despite the fact that all day yesterday, tens of thousands of security forces and club-wielding vigilantes roamed the streets and beat and arrested anyone who was protesting the results of the 12 June vote. Starting on 13 June, spontaneous mass protest rallies and demonstrations against last Friday’s rigged election have become a regular feature of city life.

The government, which was initially taken by surprise with the scope and tenacity of the protests, is responding with increasing brutality. The day after Tehran was engulfed in mass protests, the government moved to cower the public with a massive show of force. Around 200,000 pro-Ahmadinejad supporters were bussed in from many locations to hear a victory speech by Ahmadinejad, who called the protesters "dirt." He called the cooked-up vote "a marvel." The same day, from around noon, riot police and paramilitary personnel were told to put a stop to the protests at any cost. Subsequent to this order, the level of violence was raised by several notches, resulting in the deaths and injuries of scores of people.

The “soft coup” reported by ISN Security Watch on 11 June is now in full swing. Not only has the government arrested most of the leaders of the reformist camp, it has imposed a near-total news blackout, disrupted internet service, jammed satellite TV broadcasts from abroad and stopped mobile phone services at selective hours.

A 'marvel' of a vote

The audacity with which the government and its supporters have tinkered with the voting results is staggering. According to the published results, Ahmadinejad has achieved over 24 million votes against Mousavi's 13 million. This flies in the face of facts on the ground.

One reformist contestant, Mehdi Karoubi, has received less than 300,000 votes. The same individual won several million in 2005.

Even in their hometowns, the three candidates running against Ahmadinejad did not receive even a fraction of the votes cast. For instance, in Shabestar, Mousavi’s hometown, he supposedly received under 29 percent of the votes, with the rest going to Ahmadinejad. In Aligoodarz, Karoubi's hometown, he garnered 22.8 percent of the votes. In Lali, the hometown of Mohsen Rezaii, he received a paltry 0.8 percent.

The instances of irregularity were both blatant and massive. First, in thousands of documented cases, representatives of other candidates were ejected from the polling stations illegally.

Second, there were no such representatives present at the meeting on 13 June when the final counts were tallied.

Third, from the moment the results in the Ahmadinejad-leaning provinces were announced in the early hours, to the moment when the Mousavi-leaning zones were announced, Ahmadinejad's votes remained constant in the same 63-66 percent range.

Fourth, in a break with the past, the precinct-by-precinct tallies were not announced.

Fifth, Fars, a news service connected to the Revolutionary Guards, announced that Ahmadinejad had won handily at midnight on the day of the election - that is, eight hours before the results were officially compiled.

And there are plenty of other examples of irregularities.

Force and counter-force

All three contestants have officially lodged protests to the Guardian Council, asking for a re-count. According to the constitution, when disputed, the Guardian Council is required by law to examine the results before giving its final seal of approval. Not only has it not done so, but the Supreme Leader of Iran has congratulated Ahmadinejad before the normal process is completed.

This means that the present leadership is determined to traverse the “soft coup” to the finish line.

Already, a pro-government newspaper, Iran, has published legal “evidence of corruption” against Ayatollah Ali Rafsanjani's younger son. The purge of the polity would start with Rafsanjani's faction and theoretically end in a praetorian dictatorship, the contours of which are not quite clear yet.

Meanwhile, a huge right-wing extremist mass radicalization is being planned, which will be carried out under the slogans “back to the revolution” and “purge the corrupt officials.” Kayhan, another newspaper connected to the country's security establishment, has called this "Iran's Third Revolution"— after the 1979 revolution and the post-hostage-taking events.

The opening salvo for this well-worked-out plan, which is fully approved by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, turned into a now historic presidential debate between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi on 3 June. The event, which was watched by 80 percent of Iranians, was supposed to create mass mobilization. According to the now-banned website, Ayandenews, Basij paramilitary personnel were ordered to attend anti-Mousavi rallies right after the debate's conclusion chanting anti-corruption slogans which implicitly linked Mousavi with Rafsanjani. There were many other such actions devised. 

What derailed the hardliners' scheme was the rise of a unexpected spontaneous social movement which came together and took over the streets for close to two weeks and fully supported Mousavi in the election.

At this point, nothing stands in the way of the hardliners from veering Iran to the extreme right except the burgeoning mass movement. Only that could frustrate their plans.

A key factor is the position of Mousavi, Khatami and their group. According to Mousavi's website Ghalam on 14 June, he had met with the Supreme Leader and the latter had been non-comittal, though there are unconfirmed reports emerging now that Khamenei has ordered a re-count.

If Mousavi would have approved the results, the mass movement would have been crushed. To his great credit, he has not, despite knowing full well that both he and his wife could end up being the targets of a revanchist hardline offensive soon.

At present, Mousavi, in the Farmanyeh section of Tehran, is inaccessible and his contacts have been circumscribed by the security police. However, at 7 AM today, Shahab Tabatabi, his youth section leader, published the transcripts of a talk with Mousavi which is being circulated by millions of people.

According to this text, Mousavi is calling on all Iranians to attend peaceful mass protest marches at 4 PM Tehran time. He himself has said he would attend the march commencing at Tehran's Engelab Square. According to the statement, if the Interior Ministry does not issue him and his supporters a permit for the march, he would stage a sit-in at Imam Khomeini's tomb. If stopped, he would do the same thing at Jamaran Husseinyeh in northern Tehran, where Ayatollah Khomeini resided in his last years.

All will hinge on this and following developments. At this point, high-ranking clerics in the holy city of Qum are silent. They have neither condemned nor approved the disputed vote. They are watching with rapt attention how this week's events will unfold. Their positions will be decisive for whether Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, will go ahead with plans for a full-fledged dictatorship or will bite the bullet and accept a vote re-count or a new election.