Addressing Syria
By Dominic Moran for ISN
High-level British, Italian, French and US delegations have visited Damascus in recent months, effectively signaling the complete collapse of the isolationist policy of previous years.
The Barack Obama administration appears willing to pay heed to some domestic analysts who have long held that Syria's regional role makes it an important player in securing wider stability in the Middle East.
The thaw in relations has been aided by small, but significant shifts in Syrian positions on issues of concern.
While Syria has made gestures on Iraq, the key development has been the easing of the Lebanese political crisis and seeming attenuation of an assassination campaign targeting Lebanese opponents of Syria.
The failure of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon to bring indictments against four former Lebanese generals, accused of involvement in the conspiracy to murder former Lebanese premier Rafik al-Hariri, is pivotal. The demonstration of high-level Syrian involvement, initially intimated by a UN probe, would have scuppered the warming of Syria's ties with Europe and the US.
Syria is presenting itself as a bridge for improved relations with Iran. This approach is actually premised on an understanding of the limitations of any future bilateral Iranian-US rapprochement, which would not necessarily work in Syria's favor.
While the reinstitution of ties with the US brings its own rewards for President Bashar al-Assad's government - notably the hope of ending damaging unilateral sanctions - the strategic imperatives driving burgeoning Iranian investment in Syria would be altered by improved Iranian relations with the West and Gulf states.
Reports of tensions between Hizbollah and the al-Assad government have yet to be clearly demonstrated. However, the Baathist administration likely has few illusions concerning the potential impact of its support for and hosting of Islamic militant factions at a time when Syrian youth are increasingly turning to conservative Islam.
The Iranian nuclear imbroglio is also having a direct impact on Syria, drawing unwanted attention to its alleged covert nuclear activities and the purported role of North Korea therein.
This is an unwanted distraction for Damascus, which is in a better position on the regional stage than at any point in recent years. Particularly important for both Damascus and Lebanese stability is the warming of frosty relations with Riyadh.
Efforts to improve relations have included two summits meetings between al-Assad and King Abdullah and the dispatch of a new Saudi ambassador to Damascus. Syrian support for the Saudi-authored Arab Peace Initiative also remains intact despite repeated criticism of the peace offer.
While the progressive reinstitution of relations with Syria is viewed as an integral element of the Obama administration's laudable effort to regionalize the Arab-Israeli peace process, the limitations of this approach are clear.
Syria can play an important role in either undermining or building stability in Lebanon and in preventing Hizbollah-Israeli clashes, but Damascus's impact on the Iraqi conflict, Iranian nuclear crisis, and Palestinian-Israeli peace process are usually overstated.
There is precious little chance of any short-term Syrian-Israeli talks on the Golan leading to a breakthrough, given that all parties in the Israeli coalition, aside from Labor, are openly and vehemently opposed to the return of the strategic plateau to Syria.
Therefore, as the US and European states look to build ties with the Baathist government, it is important to recognize the limitations of Syria's regional role and strategic position.
Considerable caution is also needed in negotiating relations with allied Arab states and Lebanese factions that still view the al-Assad government with a mixture of trepidation and blatant animosity
The Barack Obama administration appears willing to pay heed to some domestic analysts who have long held that Syria's regional role makes it an important player in securing wider stability in the Middle East.
The thaw in relations has been aided by small, but significant shifts in Syrian positions on issues of concern.
While Syria has made gestures on Iraq, the key development has been the easing of the Lebanese political crisis and seeming attenuation of an assassination campaign targeting Lebanese opponents of Syria.
The failure of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon to bring indictments against four former Lebanese generals, accused of involvement in the conspiracy to murder former Lebanese premier Rafik al-Hariri, is pivotal. The demonstration of high-level Syrian involvement, initially intimated by a UN probe, would have scuppered the warming of Syria's ties with Europe and the US.
Syria is presenting itself as a bridge for improved relations with Iran. This approach is actually premised on an understanding of the limitations of any future bilateral Iranian-US rapprochement, which would not necessarily work in Syria's favor.
While the reinstitution of ties with the US brings its own rewards for President Bashar al-Assad's government - notably the hope of ending damaging unilateral sanctions - the strategic imperatives driving burgeoning Iranian investment in Syria would be altered by improved Iranian relations with the West and Gulf states.
Reports of tensions between Hizbollah and the al-Assad government have yet to be clearly demonstrated. However, the Baathist administration likely has few illusions concerning the potential impact of its support for and hosting of Islamic militant factions at a time when Syrian youth are increasingly turning to conservative Islam.
The Iranian nuclear imbroglio is also having a direct impact on Syria, drawing unwanted attention to its alleged covert nuclear activities and the purported role of North Korea therein.
This is an unwanted distraction for Damascus, which is in a better position on the regional stage than at any point in recent years. Particularly important for both Damascus and Lebanese stability is the warming of frosty relations with Riyadh.
Efforts to improve relations have included two summits meetings between al-Assad and King Abdullah and the dispatch of a new Saudi ambassador to Damascus. Syrian support for the Saudi-authored Arab Peace Initiative also remains intact despite repeated criticism of the peace offer.
While the progressive reinstitution of relations with Syria is viewed as an integral element of the Obama administration's laudable effort to regionalize the Arab-Israeli peace process, the limitations of this approach are clear.
Syria can play an important role in either undermining or building stability in Lebanon and in preventing Hizbollah-Israeli clashes, but Damascus's impact on the Iraqi conflict, Iranian nuclear crisis, and Palestinian-Israeli peace process are usually overstated.
There is precious little chance of any short-term Syrian-Israeli talks on the Golan leading to a breakthrough, given that all parties in the Israeli coalition, aside from Labor, are openly and vehemently opposed to the return of the strategic plateau to Syria.
Therefore, as the US and European states look to build ties with the Baathist government, it is important to recognize the limitations of Syria's regional role and strategic position.
Considerable caution is also needed in negotiating relations with allied Arab states and Lebanese factions that still view the al-Assad government with a mixture of trepidation and blatant animosity