More Bloodshed Ahead in Waziristan
By Naveed Ahmad for ISN
As US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her Pakistani counterpart Shah Mahmood Qureshi sat Wednesday for talks in Islamabad’s Foreign Ministry, a massive car bomb blast in a Peshawar public square claimed at least 105 lives.
In her press conference after the talks, the top US diplomat said, “This is our struggle as well and we commend the Pakistan military for their courageous fight and [...] we stand should to shoulder with the Pakistan people in our fight for peace and security.”
The country has been on high alert amid fears of retaliatory strikes by Taliban militants as the army attacks their strongholds in South Waziristan on the Afghan border.
Owing to its role in the war on terror and a worsening law and order situation, the country’s economy is in a steep nosedive. The rupee has weakened 5 percent this year after losing just over 22 percent last year. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is helping the country with an $11.3 billion emergency package to avert a balance of payments crisis.
Islamabad expects more economic assistance, especially after committing 30,000 troops and significant air power in the long-awaited crucial South Waziristan operation following a chain of terrorist attacks in its major cities and locations as sensitive as the army’s General Headquarters (GHQ) in October.
“We have no doubt in saying that most of the terrorist attacks launched across the country against security forces or innocent people are planned, funded and facilitated from the South Waziristan tribal areas,” Pakistan’s Interior Minister Rehman Malik told ISN Security Watch on phone.
Waging war in Waziristan
In its first offensive, the Pakistani army suffered heavy casualties in 2004 while another incursion in 2008 resulted in a hastily drawn up peace deal, giving militants time to organize and plan for an inevitable war with the army.
However, there has been no let up in US drone attacks over the past two years. Since October, Pakistan air force jets, gunship helicopters and artillery have been pounding militant hideouts in a bid to soften the targets.
Various US and NATO intelligence reports claim the presence of Osama bin Laden and his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri in the dry and barren Waziristan mountains. Though recently Baitullah Mehsud, the most feared commander of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, was killed in a drone attack, the area is said to be home to an estimated 10,000 local fighters and 1,200 to 4,000 militants from Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, a senior Pakistani interior ministry official told ISN Security Watch.
While the Pakistan army conducts a full scale military operation in South Waziristan against Hakimullah and Waliur Rahman - two deputies of late Baitullah Mehsud - US soldiers have unexpectedly vacated seven posts they were manning on the Afghan border with South Waziristan after a fierce firefight on 3 October.
Quoting Lt Cason Shrode, USA Today reported that the attack was a "very well-planned and deliberate attack" by an estimated 200 gunmen that started shortly after dawn and destroyed every building on the outpost save for one, from which troops defended the base.
A promise from the north
The military campaign, named 'Operation Rah-e-Nijat' or 'Path to Deliverance,' is far more difficult than the successful Swat offensive.
“Swat was surrounded by Pakistani territory from all sides while the South Waziristan operation cannot succeed without active ISAF support from the bordering Afghan side,” former Intelligence Bureau chief Masood Ahmad Khattak tells ISN Security Watch.
Pakistan Army Chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani reportedly raised his concerns over the unmanned Afghan side of border with CENTCOM Commander General David Petraeus on 19 October.
There are currently 65,000 US and 39,000 allied troops in Afghanistan while the Pentagon has already approved deploying 17,700 troops and 4,000 trainers to Afghanistan.
Noted defense analyst Brigadier (retd) Shaukat Qadir is quoted in The Daily Times as saying that that the chances of a successful operation depend upon security supply and communication lines from North Waziristan, whose tribesman have so far promised not to attack the Pakistan Army’s rear but “no one know what the military forces promised the Wazirs in return for this safe passage.”
The risks of military rear being attacked are high with the presence of three other militias led by Pashtun commanders Mullah Nazir, Jalaluddin Haqqani and Hafiz Gul Bahadar.
Harsh, rugged, semi-mountainous Waziristan is the largest territory in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan with an estimated population of over 500,000, belonging predominantly to the Mehsud tribe.
Though media, humanitarian organizations and observers are denied access to the actual war zone, 330,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) have registered with local partners working in conjunction with the UN and the government in adjoining Tank and Dera Ismail Khan cities.
Lying on a plastic sheet in a tent, Tayyab Mahsud told ISN Security Watch that "fighting was intense in Makeen area" and he that had walked for eight days with his two wives and 13 children.
“My two brothers are still stranded there and we are worried about their lives,” he says, explaining how badly civilians are caught between crossfire and army-imposed curfews.
UN agencies are expecting an influx of close to half a million IDPs while international organizations in the area are planning for around 250,000.
“If there is more bloodshed, there will be more displacement and then would need a lot more resources,” says a mid-level official of United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA), requesting anonymity.
Faced with threats of attacks on national UN staff and other international humanitarian organizations, and security restrictions from the government, relief work is being indirectly carried out through local partners.
“Based on the information we have, there is no threat of any epidemic and supplies are adequate for the expected number of IDPs. However, the situation may become difficult if the fighting prolongs,” says an official from the World Food Program in in DI Khan who was not authorized to be quoted by name.
A long winter ahead
The military has set a three-month time frame to complete the operation. Brigadier Qadir tells the Times that the pace of the army operation has been in sync with its timetable for the offensive, but “progress from here onward is likely to be much slower as the lines of communication are extended and become vulnerable to guerrilla action.”
Officials claim that the militants are on the run and are trying to mingle with fleeing civilians. But despite bomb blasts, loss in businesses and loss of freedom to roam around, the people seem to support the Waziristan offensive.
Khalid Khan Kheshgi, a prominent journalist, told ISN Security Watch, “Now we are mentally prepared for death while living in Peshawar, even in any big city of Pakistan [. . .]. We can die any time, but [wouldn't] think our death as useless, but as a step toward elimination of Taliban terrorists.”
In her press conference after the talks, the top US diplomat said, “This is our struggle as well and we commend the Pakistan military for their courageous fight and [...] we stand should to shoulder with the Pakistan people in our fight for peace and security.”
The country has been on high alert amid fears of retaliatory strikes by Taliban militants as the army attacks their strongholds in South Waziristan on the Afghan border.
Owing to its role in the war on terror and a worsening law and order situation, the country’s economy is in a steep nosedive. The rupee has weakened 5 percent this year after losing just over 22 percent last year. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is helping the country with an $11.3 billion emergency package to avert a balance of payments crisis.
Islamabad expects more economic assistance, especially after committing 30,000 troops and significant air power in the long-awaited crucial South Waziristan operation following a chain of terrorist attacks in its major cities and locations as sensitive as the army’s General Headquarters (GHQ) in October.
“We have no doubt in saying that most of the terrorist attacks launched across the country against security forces or innocent people are planned, funded and facilitated from the South Waziristan tribal areas,” Pakistan’s Interior Minister Rehman Malik told ISN Security Watch on phone.
Waging war in Waziristan
In its first offensive, the Pakistani army suffered heavy casualties in 2004 while another incursion in 2008 resulted in a hastily drawn up peace deal, giving militants time to organize and plan for an inevitable war with the army.
However, there has been no let up in US drone attacks over the past two years. Since October, Pakistan air force jets, gunship helicopters and artillery have been pounding militant hideouts in a bid to soften the targets.
Various US and NATO intelligence reports claim the presence of Osama bin Laden and his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri in the dry and barren Waziristan mountains. Though recently Baitullah Mehsud, the most feared commander of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, was killed in a drone attack, the area is said to be home to an estimated 10,000 local fighters and 1,200 to 4,000 militants from Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, a senior Pakistani interior ministry official told ISN Security Watch.
While the Pakistan army conducts a full scale military operation in South Waziristan against Hakimullah and Waliur Rahman - two deputies of late Baitullah Mehsud - US soldiers have unexpectedly vacated seven posts they were manning on the Afghan border with South Waziristan after a fierce firefight on 3 October.
Quoting Lt Cason Shrode, USA Today reported that the attack was a "very well-planned and deliberate attack" by an estimated 200 gunmen that started shortly after dawn and destroyed every building on the outpost save for one, from which troops defended the base.
A promise from the north
The military campaign, named 'Operation Rah-e-Nijat' or 'Path to Deliverance,' is far more difficult than the successful Swat offensive.
“Swat was surrounded by Pakistani territory from all sides while the South Waziristan operation cannot succeed without active ISAF support from the bordering Afghan side,” former Intelligence Bureau chief Masood Ahmad Khattak tells ISN Security Watch.
Pakistan Army Chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani reportedly raised his concerns over the unmanned Afghan side of border with CENTCOM Commander General David Petraeus on 19 October.
There are currently 65,000 US and 39,000 allied troops in Afghanistan while the Pentagon has already approved deploying 17,700 troops and 4,000 trainers to Afghanistan.
Noted defense analyst Brigadier (retd) Shaukat Qadir is quoted in The Daily Times as saying that that the chances of a successful operation depend upon security supply and communication lines from North Waziristan, whose tribesman have so far promised not to attack the Pakistan Army’s rear but “no one know what the military forces promised the Wazirs in return for this safe passage.”
The risks of military rear being attacked are high with the presence of three other militias led by Pashtun commanders Mullah Nazir, Jalaluddin Haqqani and Hafiz Gul Bahadar.
Harsh, rugged, semi-mountainous Waziristan is the largest territory in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan with an estimated population of over 500,000, belonging predominantly to the Mehsud tribe.
Though media, humanitarian organizations and observers are denied access to the actual war zone, 330,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) have registered with local partners working in conjunction with the UN and the government in adjoining Tank and Dera Ismail Khan cities.
Lying on a plastic sheet in a tent, Tayyab Mahsud told ISN Security Watch that "fighting was intense in Makeen area" and he that had walked for eight days with his two wives and 13 children.
“My two brothers are still stranded there and we are worried about their lives,” he says, explaining how badly civilians are caught between crossfire and army-imposed curfews.
UN agencies are expecting an influx of close to half a million IDPs while international organizations in the area are planning for around 250,000.
“If there is more bloodshed, there will be more displacement and then would need a lot more resources,” says a mid-level official of United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA), requesting anonymity.
Faced with threats of attacks on national UN staff and other international humanitarian organizations, and security restrictions from the government, relief work is being indirectly carried out through local partners.
“Based on the information we have, there is no threat of any epidemic and supplies are adequate for the expected number of IDPs. However, the situation may become difficult if the fighting prolongs,” says an official from the World Food Program in in DI Khan who was not authorized to be quoted by name.
A long winter ahead
The military has set a three-month time frame to complete the operation. Brigadier Qadir tells the Times that the pace of the army operation has been in sync with its timetable for the offensive, but “progress from here onward is likely to be much slower as the lines of communication are extended and become vulnerable to guerrilla action.”
Officials claim that the militants are on the run and are trying to mingle with fleeing civilians. But despite bomb blasts, loss in businesses and loss of freedom to roam around, the people seem to support the Waziristan offensive.
Khalid Khan Kheshgi, a prominent journalist, told ISN Security Watch, “Now we are mentally prepared for death while living in Peshawar, even in any big city of Pakistan [. . .]. We can die any time, but [wouldn't] think our death as useless, but as a step toward elimination of Taliban terrorists.”