A Full Plate Awaits
By Tiejun Zhang for ISN
As US President Barack Obama’s scheduled visit to China approaches, officials and researchers in Beijing are comfortable with the current state of bilateral relations.
Obama will arrive in China in the evening of 15 November, his first visit to the country since taking office. His first stop in Asia will be Japan (13-14 November). After that, he will attend the annual APEC Leaders’ Meeting in Singapore on 15 November. After China, Obama will fly to South Korea, the last stop of his nine-day Asian trip.
Expectations abound over possible discussions of an economic partnership, climate change and the US' role in the East Asia as a whole.
Former US assistant treasury secretary Fred Bergsten has proposed that the US and China external pageform a partnership, a so-called 'G2,' to manage the world economy.
This prospect worries some in Europe, while the Japanese argue that only Japan-US alliance could be considered the 'real' G2 for the region.
Enthusiasm and worries abroad notwithstanding, the Chinese international relations circle seems more cool to the prospect overall. Xiyuan Jiang, a senior researcher from Shanghai Institute for International Studies, painted a rather pessimistic picture. “The proposed G2 framework has largely been denied by the Chinese government, because it is still too premature,” he told ISN Security Watch.
Others believe that though China might not appreciate a formal institutional framework of G2, more substantial cooperation based on such a concept would be feasible. Xiao Ren, a professor at Fudan University in Shanghai, told ISN Security Watch that a G2 pairing “would be a setting for China-US coordination with which the two countries could exert increasing influences on international issues.”
But according to Jaewoo Choo, director of Chinese Studies at Seoul's Kyung Hee University, when viewed from a neighboring country's perspective, “To us, it is the world of G2, and we are living in the age of G2,” he told ISN Security Watch.
Obama might not raise the G2 issue during his visit to China. However, he will certainly bear in mind the importance of US-China cooperation for coping with pressing international issues. Among them, environmental and energy cooperation has been singled out by Chinese analysts as the most promising area, though probably not in the area of CO2 emission.
Zhimin Chen, a professor of international politics from Fudan University, told ISN Security Watch that the two countries “would most likely agree on enhancing cooperation in clean energy” where the US has expertise and China has a great demand, but they would disagree on the “Chinese commitment to CO2 emission and American financial contribution.”
Community and containment issues
Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama has urged East Asia to build a community and to forge more equal ties with Washington. But China and Japan have different concepts of East Asia community (EAC) building, with China preferring an ASEAN+3 and Japan focusing more on an ASEAN+6 or East Asian summit.
"China insists that ASEAN+3 should be the mainstay for EAC building. The country would not oppose other frameworks for regional cooperation, neither would it actively support them,” Jiang told ISN Security Watch.
As for US military presence in the region, China sees this in both a negative and positive light: negative in the sense that the US can use the military for containment, but positive in that it can also keep a close eye on Japan's armed forces.
China would probably be “happy to [see] a reduced US military presence, but would not push [for that] and [will] let others to decide,” Chen believed.
From a South Korean perspective, Choo differs from Chen in this regard. He argued that “China is in favor [of US military presence] and does not want to see it weakening because of the consequences of upsetting the balance of power and therefore distorting the present structure.”
China has been a firm supporter of open regionalism, a concept emphasizing that outcomes of regional cooperation, such as trade liberalization, should also be “open” to countries outside the region.
Since its start in 1989, APEC has upheld the idea. Right before Obama’s visit to China, both he and his Chinese counterpart will attend the annual APEC Leaders’ Meeting, where they will probably reaffirm their commitment to open regionalism. In such a context it is unlikely that China would overtly support a weakening role of the US in the region.
Unsure of reassurance
In September, Deputy US Secretary of State James Steinberg proposed to have “strategic reassurance” between the US and China in areas such as China’s military transparency. external pageHe asserted that “strategic reassurance rests on a core, if tacit, bargain [...]. China must reassure the rest of the world that its development and growing global role will not come at the expense of security and well-being of others. Bolstering that bargain must be a priority in the US-China relationship.”
In response deputy chairman of China’s Central Military Committee Caihou Xu, during his visit to Washington a month later, urged the US to remove the four barriers that the US side had placed for strategic reassurance, including US-Taiwan military relations and insufficiency of American strategic trust toward China. To a large extent, Xu’s response can be considered a tough “bargain” against Steinberg’s proposal.
Although some in the US believe the concept of strategic reassurance replaces the Bush administration’s push for China to become a “responsible stakeholder,” many in China believe the switch is merely superficial.
As for the implications for China, Chen thinks that “The new concept indicates that the US want to coordinate policy more closely with China, and China shall cautiously welcome it.”
Economics and politics 'should not be mixed'
Commenting on Obama’s upcoming visit to Asia, Evan Feigenbaum, a former senior US State Department official, said in a Washington Post article that “the business of Asia is business. What you’ve got is an Asian challenge to Obama in the economic area that his predecessors didn’t face.”
Yuhua Song, professor of international economics at Zhejiang University, China, told ISN Security Watch, “Economic issues should not be mixed with political and security factors,” a practice that the US has used to gain domestic political support.
In recent weeks, the US raised several anti-dumping cases against China, which immediately took countermeasures. Regarding these, Song told ISN Security Watch, “China needs to protect its own national interests in the context of a sharp decrease of the country’s exports.”
As an ongoing dispute, the mutual anti-dumping case will most likely be discussed between US and Chinese leaders during Obama’s visit to Beijing. Both leaders will probably declare in principle their will of countering trade protectionism, but it is very unlikely that the dispute per se can be solved within the few days of his visit.
Slow and steady wins the race
While China will certainly seek to enhance its global influence, it will continue a cautious path, such as with the 'G2' concept and climate change. China must tread lightly so as to not alienate developing countries with its economic clout, while at the same time insisting that the developed world take more responsibility for CO2 emissions.
China will also take the slow path in East Asia community building, possibly taking the lead in pushing the region to become a free-trade area, and with dealing with US military presence. In the latter issue, the best hope is a dialogue with the US-Japan alliance, in a form that is similar the Russo-NATO talks.
With China becoming more self-confident in political, security and economic areas, the country may balk at yielding to foreign pressure. It remains to be seen if the Obama visit will be an exercise in give-and-take.
Obama will arrive in China in the evening of 15 November, his first visit to the country since taking office. His first stop in Asia will be Japan (13-14 November). After that, he will attend the annual APEC Leaders’ Meeting in Singapore on 15 November. After China, Obama will fly to South Korea, the last stop of his nine-day Asian trip.
Expectations abound over possible discussions of an economic partnership, climate change and the US' role in the East Asia as a whole.
Former US assistant treasury secretary Fred Bergsten has proposed that the US and China external pageform a partnership, a so-called 'G2,' to manage the world economy.
This prospect worries some in Europe, while the Japanese argue that only Japan-US alliance could be considered the 'real' G2 for the region.
Enthusiasm and worries abroad notwithstanding, the Chinese international relations circle seems more cool to the prospect overall. Xiyuan Jiang, a senior researcher from Shanghai Institute for International Studies, painted a rather pessimistic picture. “The proposed G2 framework has largely been denied by the Chinese government, because it is still too premature,” he told ISN Security Watch.
Others believe that though China might not appreciate a formal institutional framework of G2, more substantial cooperation based on such a concept would be feasible. Xiao Ren, a professor at Fudan University in Shanghai, told ISN Security Watch that a G2 pairing “would be a setting for China-US coordination with which the two countries could exert increasing influences on international issues.”
But according to Jaewoo Choo, director of Chinese Studies at Seoul's Kyung Hee University, when viewed from a neighboring country's perspective, “To us, it is the world of G2, and we are living in the age of G2,” he told ISN Security Watch.
Obama might not raise the G2 issue during his visit to China. However, he will certainly bear in mind the importance of US-China cooperation for coping with pressing international issues. Among them, environmental and energy cooperation has been singled out by Chinese analysts as the most promising area, though probably not in the area of CO2 emission.
Zhimin Chen, a professor of international politics from Fudan University, told ISN Security Watch that the two countries “would most likely agree on enhancing cooperation in clean energy” where the US has expertise and China has a great demand, but they would disagree on the “Chinese commitment to CO2 emission and American financial contribution.”
Community and containment issues
Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama has urged East Asia to build a community and to forge more equal ties with Washington. But China and Japan have different concepts of East Asia community (EAC) building, with China preferring an ASEAN+3 and Japan focusing more on an ASEAN+6 or East Asian summit.
"China insists that ASEAN+3 should be the mainstay for EAC building. The country would not oppose other frameworks for regional cooperation, neither would it actively support them,” Jiang told ISN Security Watch.
As for US military presence in the region, China sees this in both a negative and positive light: negative in the sense that the US can use the military for containment, but positive in that it can also keep a close eye on Japan's armed forces.
China would probably be “happy to [see] a reduced US military presence, but would not push [for that] and [will] let others to decide,” Chen believed.
From a South Korean perspective, Choo differs from Chen in this regard. He argued that “China is in favor [of US military presence] and does not want to see it weakening because of the consequences of upsetting the balance of power and therefore distorting the present structure.”
China has been a firm supporter of open regionalism, a concept emphasizing that outcomes of regional cooperation, such as trade liberalization, should also be “open” to countries outside the region.
Since its start in 1989, APEC has upheld the idea. Right before Obama’s visit to China, both he and his Chinese counterpart will attend the annual APEC Leaders’ Meeting, where they will probably reaffirm their commitment to open regionalism. In such a context it is unlikely that China would overtly support a weakening role of the US in the region.
Unsure of reassurance
In September, Deputy US Secretary of State James Steinberg proposed to have “strategic reassurance” between the US and China in areas such as China’s military transparency. external pageHe asserted that “strategic reassurance rests on a core, if tacit, bargain [...]. China must reassure the rest of the world that its development and growing global role will not come at the expense of security and well-being of others. Bolstering that bargain must be a priority in the US-China relationship.”
In response deputy chairman of China’s Central Military Committee Caihou Xu, during his visit to Washington a month later, urged the US to remove the four barriers that the US side had placed for strategic reassurance, including US-Taiwan military relations and insufficiency of American strategic trust toward China. To a large extent, Xu’s response can be considered a tough “bargain” against Steinberg’s proposal.
Although some in the US believe the concept of strategic reassurance replaces the Bush administration’s push for China to become a “responsible stakeholder,” many in China believe the switch is merely superficial.
As for the implications for China, Chen thinks that “The new concept indicates that the US want to coordinate policy more closely with China, and China shall cautiously welcome it.”
Economics and politics 'should not be mixed'
Commenting on Obama’s upcoming visit to Asia, Evan Feigenbaum, a former senior US State Department official, said in a Washington Post article that “the business of Asia is business. What you’ve got is an Asian challenge to Obama in the economic area that his predecessors didn’t face.”
Yuhua Song, professor of international economics at Zhejiang University, China, told ISN Security Watch, “Economic issues should not be mixed with political and security factors,” a practice that the US has used to gain domestic political support.
In recent weeks, the US raised several anti-dumping cases against China, which immediately took countermeasures. Regarding these, Song told ISN Security Watch, “China needs to protect its own national interests in the context of a sharp decrease of the country’s exports.”
As an ongoing dispute, the mutual anti-dumping case will most likely be discussed between US and Chinese leaders during Obama’s visit to Beijing. Both leaders will probably declare in principle their will of countering trade protectionism, but it is very unlikely that the dispute per se can be solved within the few days of his visit.
Slow and steady wins the race
While China will certainly seek to enhance its global influence, it will continue a cautious path, such as with the 'G2' concept and climate change. China must tread lightly so as to not alienate developing countries with its economic clout, while at the same time insisting that the developed world take more responsibility for CO2 emissions.
China will also take the slow path in East Asia community building, possibly taking the lead in pushing the region to become a free-trade area, and with dealing with US military presence. In the latter issue, the best hope is a dialogue with the US-Japan alliance, in a form that is similar the Russo-NATO talks.
With China becoming more self-confident in political, security and economic areas, the country may balk at yielding to foreign pressure. It remains to be seen if the Obama visit will be an exercise in give-and-take.