Jordan Needs Genuine Reform
By Dominic Moran for ISN
King Abdullah's decree dissolving the elected lower house of Jordan's bicameral parliament two years ahead of scheduled elections came as no surprise to most local commentators and to the wider public.
There is a deep-seated perception that the Chamber of Deputies has been both tardy and ineffective in dealing with the challenges facing the country, with deputies purportedly more interested in the protection of vested interests.
In a sense the monarchy is reaping what it sowed, having achieved a fundamental retrenchment of royal power in the 2007 parliamentary elections. This majority was secured through the seeming waning appeal of the Muslim Brotherhood, organized politically as the Islamic Action Front (IAF), and the maintenance of a favorable electoral system.
The IAF's parliamentary representation was slashed by 11 seats to six, with all other seats held by tribal representatives and other independents. While leveling fraud accusations, the IAF did undergo a post-poll process of internal reform, of which the upcoming poll, tentatively scheduled to take place within four months, will be an important test.
The continued marginalization of the lower house within the Jordanian political system, two decades into a touted democratic reform process, is underlined by the fact that Prime Minister Nader Dahabi's government will remain in office.
Jordan's political history has been marred by the recurrent royal sackings of sitting legislatures and it is to be hoped that this instance will be both short-lived and, as pledged in a Wednesday royal decree, presage fundamental electoral reform.
It remains to be seen whether this reform will do more than promote the planned decentralization of governance, overturning the controversial one-person one-vote system introduced in 1993.
The current voting system has led to the predominance of tribal and clan representatives in parliament, through block voting, with an attendant rise in nepotism and corruption and the election of deputies ill-suited to the demands of office.
The external pageopposition argues that former prominent intelligence service figures and generals are strongly represented in parliament, and the king will need to tread carefully in protecting his crucial relationship with the military in any reform moves.
To be effective, any electoral law change must end pervasive gerrymandering, create a situation wherein opposition parties stand a genuine chance at the polls, and encourage the Brotherhood's continued involvement in the political system.
A number of opposition parties are involved, with organized labor and professional associations, in a front against normalization with Israel. This piques concerns that the emergence of a strong parliamentary opposition could build pressure on the palace to tone down its determined advocacy for a broader Arab-Israeli peace.
However, external pagefissures are already appearing in the National Anti-Normalization Committee, and there is little chance of a fundamental foreign policy reversal given the political capital invested by the palace in the peace process.
However, there is a real danger of the long-term development of popular disenchantment through government fiscal conservatism and the reemergence of inflationary pressures, which have caused serious socio-economic distress for the country's poor in recent years.
Whether the palace is willing to allow the development of a meaningful political and ideational contest to address such challenges through the sharing of executive authority and establishment of a proportional representation electoral system remains to be seen.