Coup Rumors in Thailand

It usually it takes more than a few armored trucks to mount a coup, and it takes more than their presence on city streets to suggest that one is looming. But with Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjiajiva in Europe at the Davos World Economic Forum, and an upcoming 5-14 February visit to the US by Army Chief Gen Anupong Paochinda, the gossip has gathered steam over recent days, suggesting that elements in the army could move in the absence of either man.

Thaksin Shinawatra was deposed by a coup in September 2006 while he was in the US at a UN assembly. Although neither he nor his supporters are now in power, his Redshirt/United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) has been pushing the conspiracy theories, warning that a coup could take place during General Anupong's absence.

Deputy Army Chief General Prayuth Chan-Ocha has been the focus of Redshirt/UDD allegations, with the successor-designate portrayed as the puppet master of any would-be putsch.

On the other hand, Thaksin's opponents are stirring the pot, suggesting that a coup could be for the exiled businessman's benefit.

Viewpoints vary. Some believe the Redshirts have been trying to cause splits in the army and are trying to 'buy a coup.' Others believe that disgruntled pro-Thaksin army officers have had enough of the politicized interventions of their superiors, which have to their mind been in favor of the anti-Thaksin Yellowshirts, and in turn the current Democrat-led government.

However, it is thought that Thaksin supporters in the military are not strong enough or numerous enough to take on the dominant faction.

But anti-Thaksin elements in the army may want to act before existing divisions widen and the political temperature goes up in coming weeks.

Redshirt protests are set to take place in several locations in the run-up to the 26 February ruling on Thaksin's 76 billion Thai baht (approximately $2.2 billion) in assets, currently frozen by the Thai authorities.

However, there are reasons for the army not to act as well. The anti-Thaksin army leaders might not have a good reason to move against an Abhisit government that is more or less on the same side.

But with the government looking shakier after the failure to agree on constitutional reform, anti-Thaksin elements in the army wish to stall an election that would ensue if the governing coalition led by Abhisit's Democrat Party falls apart, as a pro-Thaksin party would likely win.

However, the last time the army ruled directly, in 2006-2007, it was something of a chastening experience. It may not have the inclination to rule once more, after being subjected to scorn and ridicule even from coup backers.

In the meantime, the 2008 Internal Security Act gave the military increased scope to intervene in civilian affairs, reducing the need for a more overt political role. It may be that the army or dominant factions see their optimum role as under a very weak coalition government through which they can exert a guiding hand.