Enigmatic Resurrection in Ukraine

Headlines the world over will undoubtedly highlight the irony in that victory in Sunday’s election: that the ‘pro-Russian’ stooge with little public charisma somehow returned from oblivion to defeat the  glamorous ‘pro-western’ heroine, Tymoshenko, who had bravely inspired the masses to fight injustice just a few years ago (along with outgoing president Viktor Yushchenko).

Yet much has changed since then. No longer was this a battle between good and evil, between western democracy and a menacing Russia, or between ‘pro-European’ and ‘anti-European’ forces, as events were depicted in those days. 

Yes, Tymoshenko has pledged (completely unrealistically) to bring Ukraine into the EU within five years, trying to distinguish herself from the less committed Yanukovych. But she is no longer an enemy of the Russians.

On the contrary, Tymoshenko has an apparently warm working relationship with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and has become a Kremlin favorite.

Yanukovych, on the other hand, reprimanded Tymoshenko for bending too far in Russia’s direction and closing a recent gas deal on unfavorable terms for Ukraine (high prices for gas and low transit tariffs). In terms of EU relations, it was actually a government headed by Yanukovych in 2006 that managed to give a fresh impetus to EU-Ukraine relations through launching negotiations on a new bilateral agreement.

With the candidates’ identities now more muddled and the population largely disillusioned with the political elite as a whole, the revolutionary spirit of the old days has faded away. But there is also another reason for the lack of enthusiasm to take to the streets this time around: The impetus is gone.

Yushchenko may have been a colossal disappointment for those who held out hope that the Orange Revolution would usher in real democracy and sweep out corruption and crony capitalism.

But to Yushchenko’s credit, he has presided over Ukraine’s transformation into a country now almost accustomed to free and fair elections characterized by vibrant political competition and extensive media coverage. No one really knew who would win this time around.

Given the situation in the rest of the former Soviet Union (except for the Baltic states), that is an impressive achievement.

Even the feisty Tymoshenko, who vowed to call her supporters out for an Orange repeat if ballots were stuffed, may have decided that the violations that did occur - and surely some did - were not enough to throw the election. She may be on firmer ground, however, in disputing changes made three days before the vote to the election law, which, critics say, increased the likelihood of manipulation - a parting ‘gift’ from Yushchenko to his former ally and now hated rival, whom he savaged on the campaign trail.

(One Ukraine analyst told ISN Security Watch early on Tuesday that Tymoshenko has said she would not accept a Yanukovych victory, but ISN Security Watch has not been able to independently confirm the analyst’s claim.)

If, as expected, any challenges to the election results go nowhere, Yanukovych will take the helm of a deeply divided nation where no candidate garnered over 50 percent of the vote and cannot depend on a stable majority in parliament to pass major legislation.

Yanukovych hardly seems likely to be the man to unite the country, especially if he follows through on his campaign promise to make Russian an official language (alongside Ukrainian). And he also seems a longshot to enact the far-reaching reforms that the country desperately needs to stave off corruption, create an independent judiciary and save a flailing economy.

But back in 2004, no one would have thought that Yanukovych would win another presidential election, especially one judged free and fair - and that his fierce rival from those days, Yushchenko, would have a hand in his victory.