The Faltering Nigerian Giant
By Stephanie Schulze for ISN
Nigerian Vice President Goodluck Jonathan has finally been installed as external pageacting president in the wake of the November 2009 departure from the country of President Umaru Yar’Adua for medical treatment for a heart condition. The move has, temporarily at least, ended the power vacuum that has threatened the region’s stability for the past months.
The Nigerian stalemate arose amid an overall tense security situation in West Africa. Guinea and Niger have recently witnessed military coups d´état, and elections, which tend to be a source of conflict in the region, are coming up in several countries.
Nigeria, West Africa’s giant, is politically and economically the most powerful player in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and its effect on the region is enormous.
Yar’Adua’s departure to Saudi Arabia on 23 November last year has since left a dangerous vacuum, at a time when several crises have hit the country.
Violence flare-ups
On 17 January, violent clashes between Muslims and Christians erupted around the city of Jos in Nigeria’s so-called middle belt – the zone where the Muslim north and Christian south meet. external pageHuman Rights Watch reports that at least 364 Muslims were killed in the pogrom.
Clashes between the two religions have a sad history in Jos, the capital of Plateau State: external pageat least 700 people were killed in November 2008 in what is largely described as sectarian violence; in September 2001, external pagesimilar outbreaks cost 1,000 lives.
Each of the incidents lasted only a few days, but they have not been properly investigated, and no one has been held accountable. external pageExtra-judicial killings by the Nigerian police, which are not uncommon, contribute to the government’s hesitation to pursue the perpetrators. This allows for the deep-rooted disputes to flare up regularly.
In addition, external pageanalysts believe that the violence does not originate in religious differences per se, but rather in struggles for political power and resources, which are caused by structural imbalances fixed in the Nigerian constitution. Unless these impediments for sustainable peace are addressed appropriately, clashes in the middle belt will continue.
Meanwhile, rebel groups in the Niger Delta have recently threatened to break a truce concluded in October 2009 and launch a external pagefresh round of attacks in the oil rich southern region if the government does not grant a greater share of oil revenues to local people.
Yar’Adua had external pagepromised rebels amnesty and financial incentives in return for disarmament, but his absence has brought the process to a halt.
In a country like Nigeria where wealth is distributed so unequally and where outbursts of violence in various parts of the country are a frequent occurrence, a strong democratic leadership is absolutely necessary to calm tensions and address structural imbalances.
Stability in ECOWAS region depends on strong Nigeria
A fully functioning Nigerian government is not only paramount for internal politics but also for the entire West African region. With around 150 million inhabitants, Nigeria holds Africa’s largest population. Most importantly, it is the “game-maker of ECOWAS,” Dr Remi Ajibewa, head of Political Affairs and International Communication at ECOWAS, told ISN Security Watch.
Nigeria currently chairs ECOWAS, whose member states recently external pageelected Goodluck Jonathan as chairman, replacing the absent Yar’Adua. The country has played a key role in several mediation missions in the region over the past decade.
The absence of the ECOWAS chairman has inhibited the body’s activities “in many ways,” according to Ajibewa, and a regular summit had to be external pagepostponed twice: Nigeria’s importance for the functioning of the regional union is undeniable.
Since September 2009, political crises have hit the West African states of external pageGuinea and Niger (which just experienced a external pagemilitary coup on 18 February), and sustainable solutions have yet to be found. Particularly in its function as chair of ECOWAS, the Nigerian leadership can contribute crucially to solving these crises. Ajibewa maintains that they could have been avoided “with a strong Nigeria.”
On top of those two acute trouble spots in the region, external pageTogo and Ivory Coast have anxiously awaited upcoming elections. Ivorian President Laurent Gbagbo has recently external pagedissolved the government and electoral commission, once again squashing hopes that the elections, which have already been postponed six times, will be held anytime soon.
Unite behind Jonathan
Nigeria’s own national elections are scheduled for 2011. To ensure that the historically antagonized north and south of the country get an equal share in power, there is an unspoken rule that leadership alternates between the two regions. At the same time, the vice president must come from the opposite region as the president.
While Jonathan is currently only acting president, there are movements attempting to impeach Yar’Adua - and either way, the prospects of him resuming office are doubtful, according to Ajibewa. This means that Jonathan, who served as governor of the southern Bayelsa State before being nominated as vice president, would remain acting president until the next elections. This causes discomfort among northern MPs (Yar’Adua comes from the northern state of Katsina) who fear that they are losing their turn to hold power and access to resources.
From this, further rifts arise in the already fragmented Nigerian political landscape. Northern MPs have voiced their external pagedisapproval of any impeachment procedures against Yar’Adua, and there are factions that external pagedo not support Jonathan in his role as acting president, claiming that the procedures which brought him to the top office where not in line with the constitution.
However, at this point it is crucial that the whole country accepts the acting president until the next elections. Despite the current tensions surrounding Jonathan, Ajibewa is confident that “even those resisting now will soon line up behind him.”
This is essential not only for stabilizing the country now, but also in the long run. Much work remains to be done to ensure that the 2011 elections are as transparent and fair as possible.
The presidential election in 2007 that brought Yar’Adua to power was external pageheavily rigged, and external pageelection irregularities in oil-rich Anambra State two weeks ago suggest that the 2011 national elections will face the same fate. The unexpected change in power between north and south further complicates the issue.
Therefore, a reform of the electoral system and especially of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), which is known for its spurious actions, is most urgent in working toward ensuring open democratic elections. Although this will be a long and arduous process that will not be completed until the 2011 elections, some first steps in that direction are crucial now.
Nigeria has to avoid chaotic national elections at all costs – the stability of the West African region depends on it.