US Lacks Leverage Over Israel
By Dominic Moran for ISN
It is unlikely that Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu actually planned the announcement of the development of 1,600 new housing units in the East Jerusalem settlement of Ramat Shlomo to coincide with Biden’s visit, but the decision does reflect standing government policy.
The initiative appears tied to efforts on the part of the Jerusalem municipality and the ultra-Orthodox Shas party to curry favor with supporters and outflank the government to the right.
Jerusalem Mayor Nir Barkat recently external pagecame under pressure from Netanyahu, via the US, to rein in plans for the demolition of houses in the Palestinian neighborhood of Silwan.
Shas effectively controls the committee that passed the housing plan via the Interior Ministry and has hardened its stance on the territorial inviolability of Jerusalem.
This is not the first time in the short tenure of the second Netanyahu government that visits by US officials have been marred or bracketed by Jerusalem settlement announcements. This pattern of behavior has severely undermined Washington's bid to win Palestinian support for a resumption of negotiations and wider Arab state support, as evinced by a external pagewarning from the US military's CENTCOM.
It has also provided ammunition for hard-line Islamic movements.
Riots again broke out in Palestinian East Jerusalem on Tuesday as protesters marked a ‘day of rage’ declared by Hamas, with the support of the northern wing of Israel's Islamic Movement, over settlement building plans and Monday's dedication of a rebuilt synagogue in the Old City's Jewish Quarter.
As it looks to pave the way for now postponed proximity talks, President Barack Obama's administration is right to demand a full reversal of the 1,600-unit plan and further measures on the part of the Netanyahu government to promote the talks.
However, the White House does not have the political support in Congress for a prolonged confrontation or moves toward punitive measures against Israel.
It will likely look to resolve the dispute in coming days in a bid to smooth relations ahead of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's address to the annual conference of the most powerful Jewish-American lobby group, AIPAC, which starts this Sunday.
The Israeli government knows this and is playing for time, mixing moves to apologize for its misstep during Biden’s visits with statements reaffirming its commitment to the 'unity' of Jerusalem.
While Netanyahu had yet to openly declare the shelving of the Ramat Shlomo development, ahead of a scheduled phone conversation with Clinton on Wednesday on US demands, this decision has already been taken.
Fomenting a crisis with the US is dangerous for any Israeli government.
However, Netanyahu will be given leeway by his coalition partners to do just enough to address the current rift. This, as Labor and the right-wing parties in the government only stand to lose from any reworking of the coalition that brings in Kadima.
Through publicly putting Israel in its place, the Obama administration has won temporary leverage and succeeded in drawing a line in the sand - of limited utility in promoting peace negotiations - but little else.