Kyrgyzstan: Deja Vu Redux
By John CK Daly for ISN
In an eerie replay of the events now known as the Tulip Revolution in 2005, the unrest that erupted in Talas on 6 April before quickly spreading to the capital Bishkek and beyond was apparently caused by a perfect storm of widespread anger over a laundry list of issues: a 200 percent increase in electric and heating bills; the sale of public utilities power companies at scandalously low prices by President Kurmanbek Bakiyev’s government to companies controlled by his friends; and his administration’s increasingly rampant, blatant corruption and authoritarian tendencies. These issues collectively unified opposition factions and galvanized support for them to the point where street demonstrations erupted.
According to the provisional government’s security chief Keneshbek Dushebaev, more than 80 people died in the unrest, while the number of wounded exceeded 400. The Health Ministry reported at least 76 people died and more than 1,400 were injured. His loyalist forces unable to maintain control in the capital, Bakiyev quickly decamped and flew to the southern town of Jalal-Abad, where he remains in power while refusing to resign.
Roza Otunbayeva, a former foreign minister and initially Soviet ambassador to Malaysia and later Kyrgyz representative to the US, Canada, and Britain, quickly emerged as the interim government’s leader. Opposition politicians said that she was chosen because she is considered an outsider who is not involved in location or national factional politics.
Russia moves quickly
Indicating the provisional government’s political priorities, on 8 April deputy head Almazbek Atambayev flew to Moscow to discuss the current situation in Kyrgyzstan with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin as well as to request financial assistance. Former 2009 Kyrgyz presidential candidate Temir Sariyev told supporters that he had also met with Putin the day of the start of protests. The Russian prime minister has pledged support for Kyrgyzstan's opposition.
Ironically, as Atambayev arrived in Russia, Bakiyev’s son Maksim and Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Kadyrbek Sarbayev had arrived in Washington the previous day to attend an ecomonic forum and meet with US officials. Maksim has since gone into hiding and opened a Russian-language blog on the blog service Livejournal from New York City.
Moving quickly, Russia will undoubtedly soon become the first foreign government to recognize Kyrgyzstan’s new leadership. Moscow’s disenchantment with Bakiyev dates from last year, when he infuriated the Kremlin after receiving a promise of a $2.15 billion loan from Moscow by reversing his decision over the 224 hectare Manas US air base after Washington agreed to pay triple the rent and give $150 million in other concessions, most of which apparently was siphoned off into bank accounts controlled by Bakiyev’s family and inner circle. A Washington-based Central Asian diplomat, speaking on strict condition of anonymity to ISN Security Watch, stated his belief that the KGB was involved in the disturbances, despite Putin’s denials that Russia had any role in the uprising.
While many analysts are casting the Kyrgyz unrest as solely a US-Russian tussle for dominance Dr Erika Marat, research fellow at the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute is more sanguine. In an e-mail to ISN Security Watch, Marat observed, “Obviously Moscow favors some of the opposition leaders and launched a mass media attack against Bakiyev in the past two months [...] but I don’t think Russia in any way helped to organize the spontaneous riots.”
A bankrupt legacy
If the interim Kyrgyz government is to be believed, Bakiyev looted the country on a massive scale. On 9 April Otunbayeva’s chief of staff Edil Baisalov told CNN, "The state coffers are almost empty. Some funds have been transferred somewhere, which is why we've frozen the banking system, because we are anxious that the banks controlled by the former President Bakiyev might take the funds out of the country." Baisalov added that all that remains in the country's bank accounts is about $21.5 million, the equivalent of $4 per Kyrgyz citizen.
Otunbayeva said, “We have not got much money left. It is a really serious problem.” Ravshan Jeenbekov, deputy chairman of the Ata-Meken (Fatherland) party, who has spent the last four years in exile in the US, estimated during a 9 April RFE/RL interview that the level of Bakiyev’s theft at $500 million to $1 billion. As a result of such corruption, according to one interim government official, Kyrgyzstan’s budget deficit is now about 50 percent.
Acting Prosecutor General Baytemir Ibrayev said that criminal charges were being brought and arrest warrants issued against Bakiyev’s two sons Marat and Maksim as well as his younger brother Zhanysh, who was formerly chief of the State National Security Service (SNSS), as he apparently gave the orders to open fire on the demonstrators.
Manas: Cornerstone of US policy
Whether the events in the country are part of a new 'Great Game' is up for debate, but what is undoubtedly true is that US foreign policy in Kyrgyzstan has been marked over the past five years by as many missteps as Moscow’s policy moves have been adroit. In Central Asia as a whole, perceptions are that despite Washington’s endless harangues about democracy, in fact its chief concern is keeping the region’s transport infrastructure available for transiting US and International Security and Assistance Force (ISAF) troops and supplies to Afghanistan. In the case of Kyrgyzstan, this means the Pentagon retaining access to the Manas Transit Center, 20 miles outside Bishkek, which opened after the 9/11 attacks.
The facility has assumed ever-greater importance to Operation Enduring Freedom, particularly in the wake of US President Barack Obama’s troop surge into Afghanistan earlier this year. According to United States Central Command, last month 50,000 US and ISAF troops moved through Manas into Afghanistan, making it one of the busiest months since the base began operations. According to the Pentagon’s Transit Center at Manas website, on 10 April the 22nd Expeditionary Air Refueling Squadron flew its 16,000th sortie since it was stood up in 2003.
Following Russia’s loan package promise, on 19 February 2009 a bill to evict the US from Manas was introduced in the Kyrgyz Parliament. It was approved by 78 of the 81 lawmakers present, with two voting against and one abstaining and Bakiyev saying that he would respect the vote. Five months later, frantic diplomacy on 7 July 2009 produced a deal under which the US would have a one-year renewable lease for Manas; under the terms of the agreement, the Pentagon’s rent tripled from $17 million to about $63 million, while Washington also provided collateral aid of $67 million for airport improvements and navigation systems and another $51.5 million to combat drug trafficking and terrorism and promote economic development.
Learning little from the Akayev era however, the lucrative fuel contracts at the base were given to companies controlled by Bakiyev’s family. In a subsequent presidential election derided by both the opposition and foreign observers as deeply flawed Bakiyev was returned for a second five-year term in last year's presidential elections by 83 percent of the electorate.
Washington's priority vs Moscow's promise
Washington is belatedly awakening from its torpor over events in Kyrgyzstan. According to US ambassador to Kyrgyzstan Tatiana Gfoelle, the US Embassy is prepared to hold talks with Otunbayeva’s interim administration. While not offering diplomatic recognition, Secretray of State Hillary Clinton stated in a 10 April phone call to the new leader that Washington stood ready to help her administration “resolve peacefully Kyrgyzstan's current political problems and renew Kyrgyzstan's path to democracy, economic prosperity and respect for human rights,” while of course also mentioning Manas.
Otunbayeva’s administration is undoubtedly waiting for an offer of concrete fiscal assistance or to find out if the country will be subjected to yet another bout of what Central-Asia Caucasus Institute Chairman Fred Starr has derisively labeled “dollar store diplomacy.” In the meantime, according to the National Bank’s Acting Chairman Zair Chokoev, Russia has transferred the next tranche of Russia’s loan to Kyrgyzstan, $300 million, to Kyrgyz National Bank accounts.
After fiscal issues, the next great concern for the interim government is international recognition. It is unclear if Washington’s preoccupation with Manas will prove a spur to action or if Moscow will get there first. Dr Roger Kangas of Washington’s National Defense University said, “Quite frankly, the US government needs to show that it has more interests in Kyrgyzstan than simply the transit center at Manas. Senior US officials are speaking to and meeting with the interim government, and are most likely trying to ensure that there are no immediate problems for the operations at Manas.
"That said, it would not be surprising if the interim government in Bishkek demands a review of the terms of contract for the transit center,” Kangas added.
Putin is putting his rubles where his mouth is – will Washington do the same? The lease on Manas Transit Center runs out on 7 July, so the clock is ticking, and those 78 parliamentary members who voted last year against renewing the Manas lease remain
According to the provisional government’s security chief Keneshbek Dushebaev, more than 80 people died in the unrest, while the number of wounded exceeded 400. The Health Ministry reported at least 76 people died and more than 1,400 were injured. His loyalist forces unable to maintain control in the capital, Bakiyev quickly decamped and flew to the southern town of Jalal-Abad, where he remains in power while refusing to resign.
Roza Otunbayeva, a former foreign minister and initially Soviet ambassador to Malaysia and later Kyrgyz representative to the US, Canada, and Britain, quickly emerged as the interim government’s leader. Opposition politicians said that she was chosen because she is considered an outsider who is not involved in location or national factional politics.
Russia moves quickly
Indicating the provisional government’s political priorities, on 8 April deputy head Almazbek Atambayev flew to Moscow to discuss the current situation in Kyrgyzstan with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin as well as to request financial assistance. Former 2009 Kyrgyz presidential candidate Temir Sariyev told supporters that he had also met with Putin the day of the start of protests. The Russian prime minister has pledged support for Kyrgyzstan's opposition.
Ironically, as Atambayev arrived in Russia, Bakiyev’s son Maksim and Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Kadyrbek Sarbayev had arrived in Washington the previous day to attend an ecomonic forum and meet with US officials. Maksim has since gone into hiding and opened a Russian-language blog on the blog service Livejournal from New York City.
Moving quickly, Russia will undoubtedly soon become the first foreign government to recognize Kyrgyzstan’s new leadership. Moscow’s disenchantment with Bakiyev dates from last year, when he infuriated the Kremlin after receiving a promise of a $2.15 billion loan from Moscow by reversing his decision over the 224 hectare Manas US air base after Washington agreed to pay triple the rent and give $150 million in other concessions, most of which apparently was siphoned off into bank accounts controlled by Bakiyev’s family and inner circle. A Washington-based Central Asian diplomat, speaking on strict condition of anonymity to ISN Security Watch, stated his belief that the KGB was involved in the disturbances, despite Putin’s denials that Russia had any role in the uprising.
While many analysts are casting the Kyrgyz unrest as solely a US-Russian tussle for dominance Dr Erika Marat, research fellow at the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute is more sanguine. In an e-mail to ISN Security Watch, Marat observed, “Obviously Moscow favors some of the opposition leaders and launched a mass media attack against Bakiyev in the past two months [...] but I don’t think Russia in any way helped to organize the spontaneous riots.”
A bankrupt legacy
If the interim Kyrgyz government is to be believed, Bakiyev looted the country on a massive scale. On 9 April Otunbayeva’s chief of staff Edil Baisalov told CNN, "The state coffers are almost empty. Some funds have been transferred somewhere, which is why we've frozen the banking system, because we are anxious that the banks controlled by the former President Bakiyev might take the funds out of the country." Baisalov added that all that remains in the country's bank accounts is about $21.5 million, the equivalent of $4 per Kyrgyz citizen.
Otunbayeva said, “We have not got much money left. It is a really serious problem.” Ravshan Jeenbekov, deputy chairman of the Ata-Meken (Fatherland) party, who has spent the last four years in exile in the US, estimated during a 9 April RFE/RL interview that the level of Bakiyev’s theft at $500 million to $1 billion. As a result of such corruption, according to one interim government official, Kyrgyzstan’s budget deficit is now about 50 percent.
Acting Prosecutor General Baytemir Ibrayev said that criminal charges were being brought and arrest warrants issued against Bakiyev’s two sons Marat and Maksim as well as his younger brother Zhanysh, who was formerly chief of the State National Security Service (SNSS), as he apparently gave the orders to open fire on the demonstrators.
Manas: Cornerstone of US policy
Whether the events in the country are part of a new 'Great Game' is up for debate, but what is undoubtedly true is that US foreign policy in Kyrgyzstan has been marked over the past five years by as many missteps as Moscow’s policy moves have been adroit. In Central Asia as a whole, perceptions are that despite Washington’s endless harangues about democracy, in fact its chief concern is keeping the region’s transport infrastructure available for transiting US and International Security and Assistance Force (ISAF) troops and supplies to Afghanistan. In the case of Kyrgyzstan, this means the Pentagon retaining access to the Manas Transit Center, 20 miles outside Bishkek, which opened after the 9/11 attacks.
The facility has assumed ever-greater importance to Operation Enduring Freedom, particularly in the wake of US President Barack Obama’s troop surge into Afghanistan earlier this year. According to United States Central Command, last month 50,000 US and ISAF troops moved through Manas into Afghanistan, making it one of the busiest months since the base began operations. According to the Pentagon’s Transit Center at Manas website, on 10 April the 22nd Expeditionary Air Refueling Squadron flew its 16,000th sortie since it was stood up in 2003.
Following Russia’s loan package promise, on 19 February 2009 a bill to evict the US from Manas was introduced in the Kyrgyz Parliament. It was approved by 78 of the 81 lawmakers present, with two voting against and one abstaining and Bakiyev saying that he would respect the vote. Five months later, frantic diplomacy on 7 July 2009 produced a deal under which the US would have a one-year renewable lease for Manas; under the terms of the agreement, the Pentagon’s rent tripled from $17 million to about $63 million, while Washington also provided collateral aid of $67 million for airport improvements and navigation systems and another $51.5 million to combat drug trafficking and terrorism and promote economic development.
Learning little from the Akayev era however, the lucrative fuel contracts at the base were given to companies controlled by Bakiyev’s family. In a subsequent presidential election derided by both the opposition and foreign observers as deeply flawed Bakiyev was returned for a second five-year term in last year's presidential elections by 83 percent of the electorate.
Washington's priority vs Moscow's promise
Washington is belatedly awakening from its torpor over events in Kyrgyzstan. According to US ambassador to Kyrgyzstan Tatiana Gfoelle, the US Embassy is prepared to hold talks with Otunbayeva’s interim administration. While not offering diplomatic recognition, Secretray of State Hillary Clinton stated in a 10 April phone call to the new leader that Washington stood ready to help her administration “resolve peacefully Kyrgyzstan's current political problems and renew Kyrgyzstan's path to democracy, economic prosperity and respect for human rights,” while of course also mentioning Manas.
Otunbayeva’s administration is undoubtedly waiting for an offer of concrete fiscal assistance or to find out if the country will be subjected to yet another bout of what Central-Asia Caucasus Institute Chairman Fred Starr has derisively labeled “dollar store diplomacy.” In the meantime, according to the National Bank’s Acting Chairman Zair Chokoev, Russia has transferred the next tranche of Russia’s loan to Kyrgyzstan, $300 million, to Kyrgyz National Bank accounts.
After fiscal issues, the next great concern for the interim government is international recognition. It is unclear if Washington’s preoccupation with Manas will prove a spur to action or if Moscow will get there first. Dr Roger Kangas of Washington’s National Defense University said, “Quite frankly, the US government needs to show that it has more interests in Kyrgyzstan than simply the transit center at Manas. Senior US officials are speaking to and meeting with the interim government, and are most likely trying to ensure that there are no immediate problems for the operations at Manas.
"That said, it would not be surprising if the interim government in Bishkek demands a review of the terms of contract for the transit center,” Kangas added.
Putin is putting his rubles where his mouth is – will Washington do the same? The lease on Manas Transit Center runs out on 7 July, so the clock is ticking, and those 78 parliamentary members who voted last year against renewing the Manas lease remain