ICJ Ruling Spells Trouble for Belgrade

The ICJ assessment that Kosovo’s 2008 independence declaration was not in violation of international law has the potential to dramatically alter Belgrade’s international position and jeopardize the government’s stability, Igor Jovanovic writes for ISN Security Watch.

Although two years ago they had eagerly awaited the International Court of Justice’s (ICJ) ruling on Kosovo’s declaration of independence, Belgrade now seems to have been taken by surprise.

Though it was Belgrade that requested that the ICJ assess the legality of Kosovo’s independence declaration, Serbian authorities were more than a little taken aback by the court’s 22 July ruling that the declaration was legal, and not in violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1244.

“We have to be completely aware that Serbia is in a much worse position today than before the unveiling of the opinion of the International Court of Justice,” Serbian Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic said, addressing Serbian MPs after the ruling.

Belgrade loses major card

Belgrade Faculty of Political Sciences professor Predrag Simic told ISN Security Watch that the court “has knocked one of the key arguments out of Belgrade’s hands,” because Serbia had frequently claimed that Pristina’s declaration of independence was not in line with international law.

“The court’s opinion, albeit not binding, plays a big moral part and will certainly have a significant impact on the states that have so far been undecided on the matter of recognizing Kosovo. If the number of countries recognizing Kosovo increases, Belgrade’s position will deteriorate and Serbia will be under more pressure to acknowledge Kosovo,” said Simic, who is also a former Serbian ambassador to Paris.

This apprehension was also confirmed by Foreign Minister Jeremic, who said the government and president of Serbia had sent special envoys to 55 states that were close to recognizing Kosovo, with just one message: “Serbia is asking you not to recognize the independence of Pristina.”

Kosovo has so far been acknowledged by 69 states, including the US and the most influential EU member states. A rise in the number of states recognizing Kosovo will facilitate the way to a seat in the UN.

However, the process could be made difficult for Kosovo by permanent Security Council members Russia and China, which have said they did not believe that the ICJ’s ruling recognized the right to ethnic secession. They said they would continue to support Belgrade’s position on the issue.

A similar opinion has been voiced by five other EU members, which have not acknowledged Kosovo’s independence.

Analysts expect Belgrade to now focus on convincing Romania, Cyprus, Greece, Slovakia and Spain to persist in refusing to recognize Kosovo, so that the EU does not have a unified stand on the matter and will not set recognizing Kosovo as a new condition for Serbia’s EU membership.

However, even if it succeeds, the Serbian government will be in a difficult position, because EU policy is not created by the states that have not recognized Kosovo, but rather by those who were among the chief advocates of Pristina’s secession from Belgrade.

That position was also evident at the EU Council of Ministers session in Brussels on 26 July. Although Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini had said the Union should now send a positive signal to the pro-European government in Belgrade and accelerate the process of deciding on Serbia’s potential candidate status, EU Foreign Policy and Security Representative Catherine Ashton said the subject had not been debated and that the only thing that mattered was that she had conveyed to Serbian President Boris Tadic and Kosovo Prime Minister Hashim Thaci that the EU was offering to relaunch the dialog between Belgrade and Pristina for the sake of their European future.

European perspective clouded

However, Belgrade officials are aware of the fact that the ICJ ruling has clouded the European perspective. Serbian Deputy Prime Minister in charge of European integration, Bozidar Djelic, told Belgrade media that one should not expect the EU to debate Belgrade’s candidacy before seeing Serbia’s presentation at the UN General Assembly session this fall.

Prior to the court’s decision, the Serbian government had planned to submit a resolution at the session, through which it would call for new negotiations on the status of Kosovo. However, it is clear now that that option is no longer available to Belgrade.

Director of Belgrade-based NGO Forum for Ethnic Relations Dusan Janjic believes Belgrade must aim to submit a joint resolution with the EU to the UN General Assembly, but points out that the move also belies a trap for Serbia.

“The EU resolution, after the ICJ ruling, will certainly favor Kosovo’s independence, which is unacceptable for Belgrade. If it cannot harmonize its position with the EU, Belgrade should come out with its own resolution, which will not additionally put it at odds with the EU and US, but in that case it also has to be ready for defeat before the General Assembly,” Janjic told ISN Security Watch.

According to him, at the UN General Assembly session Belgrade must affirm its resolve to never recognize Kosovo, but also highlight its readiness to discuss everyday life issues in Kosovo with Pristina.

“Belgrade’s priority in those talks should be the position of Serbs in Kosovo,” Janjic said.

Even pro-Belgrade EU officials have told Serbian representatives that the Union will not approve of attempts at resuming the status talks. Italian Minister Frattini told Belgrade that, for the majority of EU members and some other countries of the world, the ICJ’s opinion “means that everything regarding Kosovo can be negotiated, except status.”

Trouble for Tadic

Judging by the words of President Tadic, Belgrade has comprehended the message from Brussels. Speaking at the Serbian parliament on 26 July, he said Serbia would not recognize Kosovo and would not allow it to become a member of the UN, but could not afford the luxury of confrontation with the most powerful forces of the world or give up on EU membership.

Tadic also said Serbia “must have the best possible relations with the most powerful states of the world, because everything else would lead the state straight to ruin, and its citizens into poverty.”

But the absence of a good move on the international scene could cost Tadic’s government on the domestic political scene. Opposition Democratic Party of Serbia has already called for Tadic’s resignation, finding him the most responsible for the failure before the ICJ, because his office has been shaping the policy on Kosovo over the last two years.

The Liberal Democrats, who are not part of the ruling coalition but often back the government’s thin majority in parliament, have also said they would no longer support the Kosovo policy, because the government is unable to acknowledge the reality after the ICJ ruling and turn to the country’s Euro-Atlantic integration.

That is why as early as 26 July, Tadic was forced to request the support of the strongest opposition party, the Serbian Progressive Party, for the adoption of a resolution on the government policy after the announcement of the ICJ’s decision. However, Janjic thinks the support of the Progressive Party, which is now more popular than Tadic’s Democratic Party, could easily turn into a suffocating embrace for the president’s party.

“Tadic is still managing to hold the reins. The fact that the Progressive Party decided to back him in parliament should not be understood unilaterally, because the opposition party has this way transferred the burden of political risk onto the president’s office,” Janjic said.

According to him, the opposition will undoubtedly by fall raise the issue of Tadic’s responsibility.
“The matter of responsibility surfaces both because of the results, which are not good, and because of the overall bad situation in Serbia,” he said.

Tadic’s government is now halfway through its mandate. Upon coming to power, the cabinet had made the slogan “Both Kosovo and the EU” its motto. After the ICJ ruling, it seems that for Belgrade both objectives are merely distant lights at the end of a very long and dark tunnel. Tadic’s government will need much more skill than it has demonstrated over the past two years to reach the end of that road unscathed.

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