Pakistan’s Continuing Misery
By Naveed Ahmad for ISN
The monsoon-inflicted floods have hit Pakistan’s soft belly to the tune of $5 billion in damages and 21 million people affected. The deluge spans an area roughly the size of England, with major roads, bridges and other electricity supply networks washed up.
Qamar-uz-Zaman, Pakistan’s top meteorologist, estimates about 30 percent above normal rainfall in these ongoing monsoons. In the meantime, in order to save bigger cities and feudal farmlands, influential politicians have taken it upon themselves to fracture embankments near poor and marginalized communities on short notice.
The United Nations has appealed to the world for aid for 800,000 stranded people in desperate need. The world body has sought more helicopters to deliver supplies to those people reachable only by air.
Pakistani Finance Ministry officials fear the country will not be able to meet its modest 4.5 percent GDP growth target, as the fiscal deficit grows to more than 8 percent of GDP.
Environmentalists have blamed excessive deforestation, especially in the extreme north and Khyber Pakhtunkhawa regions, for flash floods and landslides. Eye witness accounts reported the breaking of protective flood embankments filled with sand, indicating corruption in flood control and canal management departments over many decades.
Three out of six World Heritage Sites in Pakistan remain vulnerable to the aggressively rising waters of the Indus River. The third millennium BC Mohenjo-Daro, the Buddhist monastic complex of Takht-i-Bahi in Swat region and the 14th century remains of Thatta are at high risk owing to the ongoing disaster.
With the winter harvest season starting from 15 September, the government faces a daunting task of avoiding food shortages by ensuring timely cultivation of land. The mainly agrarian nation has lost 600,000 tons of wheat in the deluge and some 250,000 livestock. Dr Mehboob Ali, an agricultural expert, says Pakistan has lost 10 percent of its cotton share, worth approximately $750million. He and other experts say the sowing season may not start effectively until the floodwaters recede and stagnant ponds on agricultural lands dry up.
Military steps in to fill vacuum
The armed forces have deployed some 100,000 troops in a rescue and relief mission (Operation Lab Baik), General Ashfaq Pervez Kiani, the Pakistani Army’s chief and the country’s most influential man, has suspended all other duties and personally flies to disaster zones to supervise rescue activities.
On the other hand, President Asif Ali Zardari faces a media and public bashing for having spent time during this tragedy in France and the UK. Prime Minister Yousaf Reza Gilani too remains busy addressing rallies and announcing development projects ahead of by-elections.
As far as the public can see, the country’s political corps seems to have given up on the relief and recovery efforts, having handed all responsibility over to the armed forces.
Professor Dr Tahir Amin, of Quaid-i-Azam University in Islamabad, told ISN Security Watch that the country’s political elite will have to pay a very high price for failing to manage the disaster.
Indeed, a month after the flooding started in the north, the government is largely absent in the country’s marshy farmlands.
While the World Health Organization warns of disease outbreak as waters recede in some parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhawa and Punjab, Islamabad’s sole agenda point remains emphasizing the financial cost of reconstruction.
Public perception is largely that the country’s parliamentarians – many believed to have obtained fake university degrees, others alleged to have connections with land mafia – are oblivious to the plight of those affected by the flood.
A great opportunity for extremist recruitment
Alongside international aid organizations, Islamic groups are stepping to fill the gap where the government has failed. The Islamist Jama’at-e-Islami’s Al-Khidmat Foundation is organizing relief assistance camps. Though the JI boycotted the last general election, its widespread organizational network and effective lobbying makes it trustworthy.
While most banned extremist outfits cannot carry out humanitarian activities in public, reports claim that the outlawed Jama’at-ud-Dawa and Laskar-i-Taiba have been providing food and health facilities using boats and trucks in Layyah and Dera Ghazi Khan. This is only to be expected: It was only a week ago that police were deployed to remote flood-hit areas from the neighboring districts in this area.
Up in the northwest, random reports of Tehreek-e-Taliban’s humanitarian activities are shaming the government. Though the capacity and impact of the Taliban has been curtailed owing to successive military operations, it is surely to regain some lost ground by taking advantage of the destitution and offering a helping hand where there has been none.
The Tehreek-e-Taliban faction’s extremist violence has claimed some 3,600 lives over the last three years. While anti-US sentiments soared to new heights prior to the floods, now, support for the Taliban is witnessing a significant decline, says a spokesman for Gallup Pakistan. This balance, however, could very easily shift as the tragedy drags on the government.
Reconstructing stability
Over the past three weeks, the US has come to the rescue of stranded Pakistani with helicopters and relief assistance. Washington has so far provided 25 percent of aid commitments and contributions. Moreover, the US announced on Wednesday that it planned to divert $50 million from a five-year, $7.5 billion development package for flood relief.
Pakistani officials are in talks with the International Monetary Fund in Washington amid reports that Islamabad is asking the fund to ease the terms of a loan worth nearly $11 billion.
Against an initial UN emergency relief appeal for $459 million, the world has pledged $815.58 million in international assistance to ease the suffering from one of the worst disasters in Pakistan's history. Furthermore, reconstruction is expected to cost around $50 billion.
All of this will have serious implications for Pakistan’s government – already under close scrutiny over corruption charges and the way it has handled, or failed to handle, the flood disaster. Meanwhile, with the military largely filling the political vacuum, the government stands to lose even more face – a loss that could translate into something much more serious than loss of popularity. And with general elections due in 2013, much will depend on the relief and post-disaster reconstruction process.