Big Shoes to Fill
22 Sep 2010
By Eliot Brockner for ISN
On 3 October, Brazilians will head to the polls to elect new senators, congressmen, governors and president to lead their country into the next decade. The vote will be an important one for Brazil’s future: Voters will elect two-thirds of the Senate, 26 governors and every seat in the House of Representatives.
The most anticipated election result will be who will receive the baton from outgoing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the charismatic former union leader from impoverished origins, whose story of perseverance and resilience has struck a chord with the Brazilian people. Lula’s personal background and policies, which have helped Brazil emerge almost unscathed from a global economic crisis and into the role of international conflict mediator, has made him one of the most popular presidents in Brazilian history. As Brazilians choose a new leader, nearly four out of five approve of the incumbent.
There are a number of candidates vying for the presidency. Of these, there are two frontrunners, Dilma Rousseff of Lula’s Workers Party (PT), who holds a commanding lead two weeks before elections, and Jose Serra of the Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PDSB).
Rousseff is the clear favorite. She was Lula’s chief of staff and has had his staunch support since announcing her candidacy. A Lula disciple to the core, Rousseff has promised many of the same policies as Lula and will likely lean on him in some capacity – official or not – if elected. Her strengths lie in her close ties to Lula, whom Brazilians trust, as well as her background as a fighter against Brazil’s military dictatorship of 1964-1985, during which Rousseff spent three years in prison. Her major weakness is that she lacks charisma – many have called her the 'anti-Lula' for her aloofness and inability to engage a crowd – and experience; Rousseff has had a career in politics without ever holding a single elected office.
Serra is a former governor of Sao Paulo and a career politician. Serra made a name for himself as governor as Brazil’s most populous and wealthiest state. More right-wing than Rousseff, Serra faces an increasingly uphill battle. After leading in polls in 2009 and earlier this year, Serra has slipped to a far-second, trailing Rousseff by external page23 points. Serra’s widely publicized comments in July external pagelinking the PT to the FARC, Colombia’s largest drug-trafficking organization, as well as external pageaccusations made in May that Bolivia is harboring drug traffickers, may have repelled some more moderate voters. While Serra may have been attempting to show strength by reducing drug-related violence – most cocaine consumed in and exported from Brazil passes through Bolivia – his comments may have been seen as too radical for a country that has attempted to temper its foreign policy by being a friend to all.
Unlike elections in Colombia in May, which also involved a popular outgoing two-term president, the race leading up to the first round of voting has not been close. According to external pagerecent data from Datafolha, a Sao Paulo-based polling firm, Dilma Roussef has a commanding 50 percent of the vote, followed by 27 percent for Serra and 11 percent for Marina Silva of the Green Party (PV). Silva, Lula’s former environmental minister, resigned in protest in 2008 over Lula’s management of preservation of the Amazon.
Brazil has a two-round electoral system. To win outright, a candidate must receive 50 percent-plus one of the popular vote. If there is no clear winner on 3 October, the election will go to a second round in a face-off between the top two candidates. This second round run-off is scheduled for 31 October.
Though the election may not be decided in the first round, most analysts believe that it is a foregone conclusion that Dilma Rousseff will become Brazil’s next president. She will face a number of challenges at home and abroad.
The great mediator
One area in which Lula’s successor will have to make strategic adjustments to an otherwise solid platform is in the realm of international diplomacy. Under Lula, Brazil has spearheaded a number of international reconciliation campaigns, such as the MINUSTAH mission in Haiti and an external pageattempt to serve as an international mediator to sanction Iran’s nuclear program. However, the attempt to mediate between too many conflicts without taking a definitive stance has earned Brazil the enmity of many, particularly accusations that the country was too soft on Iran during negotiations between May and July of this year.
Closer to home, Lula has also worked to strengthen ties between Brazil and its neighbors, including the offer to serve as a mediator between Colombia and Venezuela; on security and energy agreements with Paraguay; and on plans for an East-West Pan-American highway linking Brazil to the Pacific by way of Bolivia and Peru. Brazil also has a number of strategic external pageeconomic alliances with Venezuela. That Brazil has been able to successfully straddle both ends of the ideological spectrum in Latin America by adopting a nuanced diplomatic approach to each country is but one of the many feats Lula has helped orchestrate for Brazilian diplomacy in the region.
One test for the new president will be how to best capitalize on these gains as a trusted international arbiter and emerging regional leader without alienating neighbors with an overbearing policy. Some have already accused Brazil of creating “external pageits own backyard”.
Brazil’s next leader has the difficult challenge of advancing the enormous footprint Lula has left on Brazilian foreign policy. Although Brazil’s next leader will almost certainly lack Lula’s charisma, s/he inherits the political and economic clout of a nation on the rise. Whether this will be enough to continue Lula’s aggressive foreign policy remains to be seen.
Domestic challenges
Brazilian cities have some of the highest murder rates on the continent. Billions of dollars of illegal narcotics pass through porous borders, some staying in Brazil and fueling urban violence, while others are destined for West Africa and Europe. Illegal weapons trafficking along the Brazil-Paraguay border is a continued threat to security in Brazil’s cities that its next leader must confront.
A major indicator of success will be how Brazil’s next president responds to these high levels of urban crime, and whether the result is long-term, or just a short-term win orchestrated for a larger global audience with eyes on a country set to host the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Summer Olympics. Some security experts believe that short-term crackdowns on the favelas, one of the plans to reduce urban crime ahead of these two large sporting events, may in fact lead to increased crime later on. The challenge is thus a daily one to improve security for Brazil’s residents, who live in great numbers in the cities along the Atlantic coast.
Regional realities
Lula leaves office after eight years of successful economic planning and a social welfare program that have narrowed the enormous gap between Brazil’s richest and poorest. Many of his policies were set in place by his predecessor, Fernando Enrique Cardoso, and it is unlikely that his successor will deviate too much from what has been successful for many Brazilians. In so doing, Brazil’s next president could set another important precedent for the region: the peaceful and successful transition of longstanding ideas and institutions under different administrations.
The wild card will be the regional and legislative elections. Lula’s charisma and clout within the PT are qualities that he will be unable to pass along to his successor. Rousseff's ability to external pageget along with a newly-formed legislative body and powerful state leaders may dictate her early successes and failures.
The October elections are not just important for the future of Brazil but for the future of Latin America. Brazil’s moderate stance and assumed role as regional leader has been in many ways a boon for the continent. Brazil’s message of regional cooperation, partnership and diplomacy with the Americas has served the region well, and Lula’s successor will likely seek to maintain the status quo, attempting to strengthen bi-lateral ties with nations in addition to promoting regional security and trade blocs. No matter who is elected, Brazil’s continued ascendance as regional leader will continue.