A Tilt to the Right
1 Nov 2010
By John M Donnelly for ISN
The 2 November elections external pagewill probably result in GOP gains in the Senate and a possible takeover in the House when the new Congress convenes in January 2011. If Republicans do take the House, it is all but certain that leadership of the House Armed Services Committee will go to Howard P "Buck" McKeon of California - a former businessman and staunch advocate of high levels of defense spending who looks warily on China's military buildup. The defense appropriations panel would go to CW "Bill" Young of Florida, a long-serving lawmaker and friend of the Pentagon. And the top spot on the House Foreign Affairs Committee would undoubtedly fall to Ileana Ros-Lehtinen of Florida, a hard-line conservative on most issues, especially when it comes to supporting Israel and condemning Cuba.
In the Senate, meanwhile, the chances of Republicans taking control are more remote. More likely, Republicans will up their numbers without securing a majority. Still, that would move Democrats farther away from the 60 votes they need to kill off filibusters, the blocking tactic employed with increasing regularity by Republicans.
If that comes to pass, November's elections will produce a Senate that neither party fully controls and will be marked mostly by gridlock.
If Republicans were to do better than that - and gain a majority of the Senate - it would mean changes at the helm of the key committees that oversee US defense and foreign policy. John McCain of Arizona, the party's losing standard-bearer in the 2008 presidential elections, would lead the Armed Services Committee. Thad Cochran of Mississippi, a champion of shipbuilders, would take the helm at the defense-spending panel. And Richard G Lugar of Indiana, a soft-spoken and cerebral moderate, who is close to President Barack Obama and Vice President Joseph R Biden, would take charge of the Foreign Relations Committee.
'Defending Defense'
In the hands of these Republicans, a lot would change in Washington.
To be sure, lawmakers' willingness to force any president's hand in matters pertaining to security and diplomacy has been limited. Particularly since World War II, the US "commander in chief" has been given ever-wider latitude in this sphere.
However, a Republican majority would undoubtedly shine a spotlight on the Obama administration's actions - by the use of hearings and investigations and selective leaks to the press. And especially if either or both chambers went Republican, it could result in a number of changes in budgets and policies.
Take defense issues. In October, a group of three conservative US think tanks issued a external pagepaper calling for higher defense spending. Their paper's title - "Defending Defense", with its suggestion that the Pentagon's coffers are under siege - said it all. Addressing reporters, the authors begrudgingly acknowledged that pressure to stem defense spending is rising, and the source is not just the left wing but also, to a lesser degree, "tea-party" activists on the right.
Indeed, with the US deficit in 2010 at external page$1.3 trillion and the cumulative debt mounting, a spreading distaste for rising budgets may cause Republicans to abandon their traditional call for higher defense spending and instead be content with just holding the line against cuts. But that will still be higher than Democrats would probably let it get. Nonetheless, if defense spending would neither rise significantly nor fall under Republicans, within that steady total, the GOP will favor boosting some programs - notably antimissile systems, a traditional GOP favorite since the days of President Ronald Reagan. With a leery eye on China, Republicans are poised to add funds for Air Force and Navy systems that can be used to guarantee US military maritime access in Asian waters - from ships to bomber aircraft to drones.
War plans
In addition, Republicans say they plan to exercise greater scrutiny of Obama's war plans. They will do their utmost to make sure that any withdrawals from Iraq and Afghanistan are blessed by commanders and not driven by political considerations.
Specifically, under Republican congressional control, it would doubtless be harder for Obama to pull significant numbers of US troops from Afghanistan, starting next July. In Iraq, where the remaining external page50,000 US troops are due to leave by the end of 2011, Congressman McKeon and other Republicans will pressure the president to make sure that their departure will not leave a dangerous power vacuum behind. And the GOP promises a fuller examination of the long-term security, economic and diplomatic relationship between Iraq and the US, with an eye to reducing Iranian influence. They also intend to redouble their efforts to prevent transfers of terrorism suspects to the US or other countries where recidivism rates are high and to ensure the detainees are not tried in civilian courts.
Of course, increased Republican numbers, especially in the House, will make it less likely if not impossible for Democrats to use the defense bill as a vehicle for passing bills that Republicans say cover "social" issues, such as the external page2009 law that extended racial hate-crime laws to also cover offenses motivated by perceptions about issues such as gender and sexual orientation.
However, it seems more likely than not that Democrats will find enough Republican defectors to pass a defense authorization bill by year's end that would repeal the external page1993 "don't ask, don't tell" law barring openly gay people from serving in the military.
Politics stops (somewhat) at the water's edge
On matters of foreign policy, Republican ascendancy in the US Congress will certainly spell tougher talk.
For one thing, congressional Republicans may throw cold water on Democratic plans to give the State Department more budgetary power so that civilians can play a larger role in executing post-combat nation-building operations alongside the military. And GOP politicians are likely to be cool toward Democratic efforts, up to now led by House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Howard L Berman, a California Democrat, to make US foreign-aid agencies more robust and effective. To the contrary, foreign aid may well be in the crosshairs of GOP budget cutters.
What's more, Republican electoral gains could also spell trouble for ratification of the New START Treaty with Russia, which would reduce nuclear weapons on both sides. Obama and Senate Democratic leaders have made a top priority of ratifying the pact before this session of Congress comes to a close at the end of 2010. But Republicans may begrudge their support and instead drag their feet if they see their political hand in the Senate will be further strengthened in 2011. If they back the accord, it will not be without extracting concessions, perhaps in the form of more spending on modernizing nuclear weapons.
Republicans will also take a harder line in favor of Israel and countering the nuclear-weapons programs of Iran and North Korea. The growth of China's military power, and questions about its ambitions in the Pacific, will rise to the fore in a GOP-dominated Congress. Russia, too, would be held to a more exacting standard for its behavior vis-à-vis Georgia and other issues. And Obama's effort to loosen travel restrictions to Cuba is likely to run into a buzzsaw of opposition from Congresswoman Ros-Lehtinen, a Cuban-American who vehemently opposes any relaxation of the embargo on Fidel Castro's regime.