Superpower Summitry: Sino-US Relations

11 Nov 2009

A year of behind-the-scenes efforts have laid the groundwork for the US president's first visit to China. But if Obama intends to build on his foreign policy team's modest gains, he must proffer a conciliatory tone to help navigate the long and winding diplomatic road ahead.

In the days that followed US President Barack Obama’s election victory last November, pundits proffered their advice on how the new leader could stand apart from his predecessors in exercising his office differently.

One suggestion was that the president’s first foreign visit should be to the People’s Republic of China, preferably within a month after his inauguration in January. As prominent writer external pageJeffrey E Garten external pageput it, “Such a trip would be a showstopper, breaking all precedents.” The president would be “demonstrating that he will be personally overseeing the relationship with another nation” and “setting the style and the tone of a new US approach to China before the bureaucracy does it for him.”

In the end, it was Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and not the president, who made such a visit. However, the move to send Clinton ahead of the president may have been for a good reason. Her consultation with Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi, and the numerous senior-level bilateral meetings that have taken place over this year – including the external pageUS-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED) in July – reflect a more measured approach by President Obama who will conduct his ‘showstopper’ only this month.

It also reflects a strategy that draws on the summative power of the president’s entire team which, at the same time, is underwritten by an appropriate division of labor: the president concentrates on setting the tone of US’s foreign policy, while his administration grinds away on establishing style by getting down to brass tacks.

Improving 'relations' and 'feelings'

If this arrangement serves to maximize the strengths of the Obama administration, it stands to be particularly effective in dealing with China. Consciously or not, it harmonizes with the important Chinese concepts of guanxi (关系) and ganqing (感情). Guanxi roughly means ‘relations’ and refers to the conscientious effort of cultivating networks of influence. Ganqing means ‘feelings’ and refers to the emotional depth of an interpersonal relationship. Roughly, ganqing is to tone what guanxi is to style.

It is clear that, thus far, the US has chosen to focus on guanxi. The recent S&ED exemplifies this. It saw the largest high-level Chinese delegation ever to visit Washington. Beijing’s entourage consisted of more than 150 senior officials, 28 of whom were minister-level officials. Nearly the entire cabinets on both sides have met with each other.

As of this moment, nearly all of the bilateral, regional and global issues on the political, strategic, security and economic front have been put on the table – with the US already tackling the fundamentals on many.

In effect, these efforts have helped Washington gain access to an otherwise impenetrable Beijing, foster trust early and secure a diplomatic foothold for President Obama’s visit. Now, it is up to the president to establish the right ganqing to bilateral relations when he meets President Hu Jintao in front of the wider Chinese public.

The substance of President’s Obama’s message is equally important as its delivery. Its essence must comprise both a careful mixture of humility, praise, encouragement and firmness. The values it conveys must be couched in a greater humanism that connects Americans and Chinese.

In its execution, the president must address some of the recent sticking points that have arisen between both sides. While he must be optimistic about a way forward, he must not pretend to offer concrete solutions right now. At the same time, his message must advance a larger theme: that the fates of both countries are increasingly intertwined, and it is imperative that they steer the course of the 21st century as equals.

Finally, President Obama must appeal to China’s sense of holism – and its attendant concepts of stability and harmony – that underpins its view of the world and its challenges within it.

An automobile allegory

One permutation of this formula would be to appeal to a common public symbol that binds the American and Chinese middle classes: automobiles. President Obama would begin by acknowledging that China has reason to be upset over the recent imposition of tariffs on imported Chinese tires.

However, both sides have only just begun their journey toward mutual understanding of the other’s values, aspirations and insecurities. The president must acknowledge that protectionism is not in either side’s interest and that relations can improve.

The president would state that he is endeavoring to remove the misperceptions within the US about China in the same way President Hu is doing amongst his people. He will acknowledge that while their political systems are different, they both share close economic philosophies. The Chinese government’s intention to make its car industry an important pillar of economic growth completely resonates with the US' experience.

In the 21st century, this will be an endeavor they must undertake together. On the one hand, the Chinese automotive industry will need American brand names stamped on their cars if they wish to break into the international market. On the other the US automotive industry will need Chinese factory lines to plug their own production gaps. Moreover, US consumers must come to accept that a significant number of Chinese-made cars will make it onto US roadways.

In fact, President Obama’s ambition of building eco-friendly cars appeals to China’s quest for greater economic opportunities, its growing awareness of its environmental responsibilities and its desire to be a responsible stakeholder. It will also allow the president to raise US concerns over China’s weak protection of intellectual property rights on which the future provision of eco-friendly technologies depend.

More importantly for now, the countries' discussion of ‘green’ cars serves as an immediate allegory for US-China environmental cooperation that allows for an avoidance of public harping on what they both need to accomplish at the UN conference in Copenhagen in December.

Finally, Obama may wish to use the notion of a vehicle, and the passengers it serves to carry, as a subtle metaphor for regional security especially with regard to the Taiwan question, if he wishes to broach the topic without causing his Chinese hosts to 'lose face.’

The US recognizes that arriving at the common destination of peace and stability involves accepting a united China and Taiwan. America’s military superiority and its global security obligations naturally lead the country to occupy the driver’s seat. As it currently stands, the Obama administration has China sitting up front, and perhaps sharing the wheel. However, the US is responsible for ensuring that its Taiwanese passenger accompanies the journey on its own volition and arrives unharmed.

At the deepest level, there is a human rights element to this narrative. Like all human beings, Americans as well as Chinese – whether they reside in Xinjiang, Tibet or Taiwan – are to treat people as they wish to be treated: fairly. This is expected of a great power.

In the end, if President Obama is to accomplish anything, he must establish a positive tenor to US-China relations simply because of a possibly sharp turn round the corner.

In 2012, Chinese leadership will change hands. Mr Hu, Premier Wen Jiabo and many senior officials will be retiring. Both the US and Taiwan will also be holding their respective presidential elections. A Republican administration and a China-skeptic Taiwanese president, should they come to power, stand to unravel any modest gains made in the crucial years of Obama’s first term.

The window of opportunity is still open. The Obama administration must not let-up in engineering a sturdy bilateral vehicle founded on trust and understanding that will weather the uncertain road that lies ahead, no matter who sits in the driver's seat.

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