An Historic Victory at an Extraordinary Time

A tidal wave of global jubilation erupted with the victory of Barack Obama as the next president of the United States. Multiple newspapers and international leaders echoed congratulatory sentiments to Obama, who was born during the year John F Kennedy was elected and segregation was an unfortunate reality in the US.

After campaigning for a staggering 20 months, not only did Americans become more familiar with this senator from Illinois, but the international community - who became enamored with his multicultural background, charisma and oratorical skills - also viewed Obama as a favored departure from the Bush administration.

The celebration, however, has been quickly dampened by an economy in disarray and a daunting agenda that would give pause to any leader. Indeed, a closer look at the 2009 landscape reveals major domestic and international challenges: the war in Iraq, a resurgent Taliban in Afghanistan, climate change, a failing, costly domestic health care system, the global financial crisis and a recession, tenuous relations with Russia, and a clash with Iran over their nuclear ambitions. And these are just the major issues. Thus, the challenges for the incoming Obama administration are immense and the expectations high.

So far, the president-elect appears to be moving aggressively by making appointments, addressing the economic turmoil and compiling a list of Bush administration executive orders on issues such as stem cell research, climate change, reproductive rights and others that could be swiftly reversed. Yet, with such a demanding tableau, what can the world realistically expect from the incoming Obama administration and are expectations too high?

To uncover some answers, this article will operate in two parts; the first highlights key domestic challenges while the second ventures beyond US borders to identify key foreign policy issues and how they may or may not change.

Domestic front: 20 months on the road as an economy unravels

In May 2007, Barack Obama declared his candidacy for president and began his long, steady journey to the highest US public office. A domestic economic snapshot during this time reveals a slowing (not bursting) housing market, weakening growth (but certainly not contraction), and rising gas prices largely due to burgeoning global demand. Overall, business was good but certainly not great.

However, by May 2008 the canvas had changed considerably, as family debt hit record highs, unemployment rates jumped – there were 260,000 reported job losses within the first four months of 2008 – and the official bursting of the housing bubble left depreciated home values and multiple foreclosures in its wake. The house of cards began, and continues, to fall.

Since September, the economic forecast has darkened even more with the US stock market dropping once again - down 35 percent from its peak - while new unemployment, high foreclosure rates and weak consumer spending data have surfaced. Nearly 250,000 jobs were lost in October alone and the big three US auto makers continue to report multimillion dollar losses, which will translate into more cuts in the workforce.

In this election, roughly 10 percent of US voters were concerned about national security issues, such as international terrorism, while the majority were concerned with the economy as the government rushed to pass a US$700 billion bailout package. With analysts expecting unemployment to jump to 8 percent or higher in the coming months, Barack Obama will need to go inward as he focuses on domestic economic threats rather than international ones. One of the first major decisions he will make concerns passing a major economic stimulus package that will seek to create jobs and aid homeowners in the coming months. Such measures, however, will require balance so to avoid deepening inflation and stagflation. Other domestic matters related to reforming energy and health care policy will consequently be delayed.

Another domestic issue that President-elect Obama will face concerns civil liberties. A defining feature of the Bush administration was the abuse and expansion of presidential powers under the banner of national security. Hence, Obama is set to inherit the enormous powers that allowed the highly secretive Bush administration to deny due process to captured combatants, violate US laws and international treaties, expand the reach of electronic surveillance, create the Guantánamo detention camp and other largely secret detention centers, and, according to New York Times reporter Jonathan Mahler, develop “a sheaf of legal opinions empowering the executive to do whatever he feels necessary to protect the country.” Add to this list control over the domestic banking industry. Having been handed such unprecedented control, it will be interesting to see how Obama navigates this precarious terrain and whether he will relinquish some of this power and restore not only civil liberties but also an adherence to international treaties, such as the Geneva Conventions. Only time will tell.

International front: How will the foreign policy change?

One thing can be said for certain: The style of future US foreign policy will likely change with President-elect Obama, who has called for increased diplomacy and multilateralism. However, can the same be said for the substance? Turning to Iraq, Obama has advocated for a timed withdrawal of troops and a redeployment of the military efforts to Afghanistan where there is a resurgent Taliban and an al-Qaida that has regrouped and strengthened along the Afghan-Pakistani border. President George W Bush has already begun to redeploy troops to this region. The ability, however, of the Iraqis to maintain peace without a significant US military presence will be tested in the coming months as President-elect Obama continues the withdrawal with the view of having most troops extracted by mid to late-2010.

However, while Obama aims to redeploy troops, he will be faced with a national military force that, after nearly eight years of continuous war, has been overstretched for too long. Reports of suicide and post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) have jumped considerably. In 2007, according to the US Army, five soldiers attempted suicide each day, with 2008 showing even higher rates. Overall, there has been a 225 percent increase in suicides between 2001 and 2007.

Thus, as he indicated in his 2008 speech in Berlin, Obama will likely call on more global cooperation and troop support from NATO and other partner nations who participate in the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan. Taking note of Germany’s role, Obama stated “My country and yours have a stake in seeing that NATO's first mission beyond Europe's borders is a success. For the people of Afghanistan, and for our shared security, the work must be done. America cannot do this alone. The Afghan people need our troops and your troops.” Germany, however, who has troops based in the safer, northern region of Afghanistan, has already implied that it would not shift troops to the south – a potential sign of future tensions between the two nations.

Moving to Iran, Obama has stated that he would first exhaust diplomatic measures to talk with the regime about their nuclear ambitions – a stark departure from the Bush administration's refusal to engage in dialogue. In response to Obama's victory, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad sent a letter to the president-elect, the first warm exchange between these two nations since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Ahmadinejad expresses his hope that Obama "will use the opportunity to serve the [American] people and leave a good name for history." Obama, who acknowledged the letter in a recent press conference, sternly replied that Iran’s support of terrorist organizations and pursuit of nuclear weapons is not acceptable and that the international community will have to work together to counter such ambitions. Hence, it appears that while future discussions between the two nations are more likely than in recent years, one cannot ignore the already tense relations that seem to be unfolding, even before Obama has assumed the presidency.

The letter from Ahmadinejad provided an example of the exceptionally high expectations in the Middle East for a more balanced US policy toward that region. However, such expectations will likely morph into disappointment. Not only will Obama need to concentrate more on domestic matters, but historically he has strongly supported Israel. His selection of Joe Biden as vice president and Rahm Emanuel as chief of staff, both major supporters of Israel, further indicate a policy that will likely not change in his administration . Furthermore, at the National Jewish Democratic Council 2008 conference, Biden went so far as to say "My support for Israel begins in my stomach, goes to my heart, and ends up in my head." No one in the Obama camp has expressed similar levels of support for other countries in that part of the world.

Temper thy expectations… but there is promise

Much will be revealed in the coming months as Obama sets out to meet the aforementioned challenges. Expectations are high, and the world should brace itself for the inevitable disappointments to come, as Obama is forced to make difficult, controversial decisions. He will neither change nor repair everything, but this moment presents the opportunity to capitalize on the overwhelming international support and excitement that was generated during his campaign. In many ways Barack Obama has renewed the American spirit and reminded the global community of the reality of the elusive but tangible “American Dream.”

It remains to be seen whether the Obama administration will truly embrace a more multilateral approach through its continued efforts in the Middle East, Africa and elsewhere. Whether or not his administration utilizes the United Nations as a vehicle for international dialogue will offer some indication in the short-term. In addition, while he is focuses on America’s domestic constraints, Obama can also begin to repair America’s image abroad by closing the Guantánamo detention facility, making sincere attempts to reach out to allies in the spirit of cooperation, and put an end to the secret authority that the Bush administration has used to carry out undisclosed attacks in sovereign nations against al-Qaida and other militants.

In short, Obama holds the reigns of multilateralism and the world is watching to see which direction he will take; for he has the potential to be not just a decent US president but a great one.